ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12801 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:29 pm

The battle for dominance between La Niña and El Niño rages on with La Niña resisting warming atempts so far. Let's see after the spring barrier is over, how the situation is with ENSO to see if things are more clear or not.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1614670102519054336




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1614670105052610561




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1614670107825016838




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1614670110655930371


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12802 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:02 am

Models are in good agreement that there won't be a February WWB. Strong trades look to continue.

March seems to be 50/50 and we could see a WWB. But its looking like it'll be well west of the dateline.

Another issue for El Nino prospects, is that the buoys are showing a growing area of cool anomalies at depth east of the dateline to Peru. Looks like the non stop trades have triggered yet another upwelling KW.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12803 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:19 am

2006 and 2018 had similar subsurface setups during this period. Infact the subsurface right now is a lot warmer compared to those years but with the same setup (warm west of the dateline but cooler east of the dateline).

The main difference is that during NDJF, 2005-2006 and 2017-2018 had much weaker trades compared to 2022-2023.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12804 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:51 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12805 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:45 pm

It’d be really odd given how strong Bjerknes feedbacks get come summer that’d there’d suddenly be a trade reversal then. It’s either spring to get us close or we just get cold neutral all year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12806 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:05 pm

High pressure is still evident in the SPAC but the -SPMM has been less prevalent so far. There is finally some surface warmth off of SA.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12807 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:19 pm

Question: is it possible to have a near to above-average Atlantic season in a traditional (not Modoki) El Nino year? The reason why I ask is I'm genuinely curious especially after last season, when a La Nina coincided with a near-average Atlantic rather than above-average (wondering if the reverse can happen as well?)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12808 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:23 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Question: is it possible to have a near to above-average Atlantic season in a traditional (not Modoki) El Nino year? The reason why I ask is I'm genuinely curious especially after last season, when a La Nina coincided with a near-average Atlantic rather than above-average (wondering if the reverse can happen as well?)


Ask Africa bc if it's as wet as it's been recently it'll raise the floor of the season no matter what.

But yes it's happened before see 1899, 1969, and 2018.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12809 Postby Teban54 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:00 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Question: is it possible to have a near to above-average Atlantic season in a traditional (not Modoki) El Nino year? The reason why I ask is I'm genuinely curious especially after last season, when a La Nina coincided with a near-average Atlantic rather than above-average (wondering if the reverse can happen as well?)


Ask Africa bc if it's as wet as it's been recently it'll raise the floor of the season no matter what.

But yes it's happened before see 1899, 1969, and 2018.

The fact that two of the three years featured a Cat 5 Gulf Coast landfall is ominous.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12810 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:26 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Question: is it possible to have a near to above-average Atlantic season in a traditional (not Modoki) El Nino year? The reason why I ask is I'm genuinely curious especially after last season, when a La Nina coincided with a near-average Atlantic rather than above-average (wondering if the reverse can happen as well?)


Ask Africa bc if it's as wet as it's been recently it'll raise the floor of the season no matter what.

But yes it's happened before see 1899, 1969, and 2018.

The fact that two of the three years featured a Cat 5 Gulf Coast landfall is ominous.


In a way, 1992 fits too. While it was operationally a cold neutral year, 1992 also followed on the heels of a strong El Nino the year before (which also lasted into July of that year), so 1992 definitely felt lingering Nino effects. Now I'm unsure about what 1935's ENSO was since that was so far back in time and years before 1950, but yeah, it is quite interesting to see how Camille, Andrew, and Michael all happened in years that were at some point El Nino-affected. While it was not a US Cat 5 landfall, I'd also count 2019 and Dorian to a degree since that storm came extremely close to being one. 2019, much like 1992, was a neutral (albeit warm neutral) year that had an El Nino die mid-year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12811 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:35 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Question: is it possible to have a near to above-average Atlantic season in a traditional (not Modoki) El Nino year? The reason why I ask is I'm genuinely curious especially after last season, when a La Nina coincided with a near-average Atlantic rather than above-average (wondering if the reverse can happen as well?)


Ask Africa bc if it's as wet as it's been recently it'll raise the floor of the season no matter what.

But yes it's happened before see 1899, 1969, and 2018.



1969 and 2018 weren't Modoki? Admittedly I know next to nothing about the specifics of the '69 Nino (not much other than there was one), but I had assumed it was a Modoki. I thought 2018 was one too, I think because I had seen so much talk of one around that time.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12812 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:07 pm

True Modokis are pretty rare with a cold tongue off South America. Only 1984, 2004, and 2019 really qualify. As for 1992, it technically happened in a cool neutral but the atmosphere that year was what you’d expect for an El Niño. 1935 was warm neutral. 1919 also had a 130 knot USA landfall and was El Niño. So did 1900.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12813 Postby zzzh » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:14 pm

1992 was 100% El Nino if you look at the MEI (which includes atmosphere response).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12814 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 18, 2023 7:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:True Modokis are pretty rare with a cold tongue off South America. Only 1984, 2004, and 2019 really qualify. As for 1992, it technically happened in a cool neutral but the atmosphere that year was what you’d expect for an El Niño. 1935 was warm neutral. 1919 also had a 130 knot USA landfall and was El Niño. So did 1900.


Wow that is pretty alarming.

Also random question but how did you know the ENSO states of pre-1950 years? Is there a specific website you can go to to find those? Would love to know!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12815 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:True Modokis are pretty rare with a cold tongue off South America. Only 1984, 2004, and 2019 really qualify. As for 1992, it technically happened in a cool neutral but the atmosphere that year was what you’d expect for an El Niño. 1935 was warm neutral. 1919 also had a 130 knot USA landfall and was El Niño. So did 1900.


Wow that is pretty alarming.

Also random question but how did you know the ENSO states of pre-1950 years? Is there a specific website you can go to to find those? Would love to know!


https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12816 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:06 am

Good consensus for a strong (>2σ amplitude) IO mjo.

Image

Base state was FINALLY appreciably disrupted with the recent intraseasonal signal. For example,

Image

While constructive interference should at least temporarily increase, all the signal has to do is remain intact and propagate over the Maritime Continent for a big boy WWB in the far western Pacific, so stay tuned. Subsurface heat anomalies have returned to near 0.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12817 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:48 am

:uarrow:
90 day CFS has strong trades for the entire month of February so subsurface warm anomalies will continue to take a hit. I think theres a decent chance for a WWB in March. If its too close to the MC then its good as useless for El Nino chances.

We can pretty much El Nino cancel for 2023 ASO if we reach the last week of February with no WWB. Mid March we can warm neutral cancel if there's no serious wind shift near the dateline.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12818 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:37 am

The CPC weekly update has ENSO warming up to -0.6C and that is the warmest value in the past few months. Is in the weak La Niña phase.

Image

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12819 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:23 pm

Figured I would post this here as I go over some interesting things pertaining to the state of the ENSO as we progress through the coming months:



Link: https://youtu.be/QpFbxBWNNns
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12820 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:50 pm

Great video Mark. Here were the probabilities from CPC in January 12th monthly update. They had El Niño at 51% for ASO however, I guess that number will go down based on what is occuring now and that CFSv2 forecast that Mark showed.

Image
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