ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#12821 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great video Mark. Here were the probabilities from CPC in January 12th monthly update. They had El Niño at 51% for ASO however, I guess that number will go down based on what is occuring now and that CFSv2 forecast that Mark showed.

https://i.imgur.com/5soth4J.jpg


Unless I see evidence heavily pointing toward one extreme (El Nino or La Nina), I’m willing to place my bets that 2023 will end up as a neutral year. My preliminary guess is around dead neutral, maybe plus or minus 1 degree C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12822 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:14 pm

The timeframe and strengh of the MJO will be the key.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1618382282804580352


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12823 Postby jconsor » Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:58 am

Interesting post by meteorologist Scott Yuknis from Climate Impact Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9413766144

"Dynamic models like El Nino by June 2023 but historical precedent does not agree...
All leading operational models (BOM, ECM, and CFS) currently indicate an El Nino onset by June. However, the historical precedent for moderately negative ONI during the final NOV/DEC/JAN of a lengthy La Nina episode indicate the following June Nino34 SSTA is in the El Nino range in only 2 of 8 opportunities."
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12824 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:16 am

jconsor wrote:Interesting post by meteorologist Scott Yuknis from Climate Impact Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9413766144

"Dynamic models like El Nino by June 2023 but historical precedent does not agree...
All leading operational models (BOM, ECM, and CFS) currently indicate an El Nino onset by June. However, the historical precedent for moderately negative ONI during the final NOV/DEC/JAN of a lengthy La Nina episode indicate the following June Nino34 SSTA is in the El Nino range in only 2 of 8 opportunities."


There's also this:

"The projection of El Nino by June 2023 by leading operational models is certainly possible, there's a lot of very warm anomalous water in the equatorial Pacific subsurface west of 160W longitude, but historically El Nino has a 25% chance of developing that quickly when moderate La Nina is still in-place at the beginning of the year."

The key here is that the La Nina is still very formidable, and as a result, the longer this lasts, the harder it will be to get an El Nino as early as the models are suggesting. Looks like he is banking on neutral conditions for 2023 rather than anything "child"-related (whether it is the "boy" or the "girl" :lol: )
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12825 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:26 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12826 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:37 am

:uarrow: Weaker trades in the EPAC and stronger trades in the CPAC/DL is a sign that La Nina is in control though.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12827 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 29, 2023 1:01 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12828 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 29, 2023 2:56 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12829 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:02 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12830 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:50 am

The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12831 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:00 am

No change in the CPC weekly update as Niño 3.4 remains at -0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Image

Image

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12832 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.


PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12833 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 30, 2023 3:51 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.


PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12834 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.


PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.


PMM is 0-30N SSTA compared to 0-20S SSTS from 90-170W I believe. Southern tropics being so cold makes it easy to be positive.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12835 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:37 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.


PMM is 0-30N SSTA compared to 0-20S SSTS from 90-170W I believe. Southern tropics being so cold makes it easy to be positive.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data


Makes sense then. Because the anomalies associated with it in the northern tropics arent impressive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12836 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:34 am

BoM is all in with El Niño for Summer.

Image

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12837 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:33 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12838 Postby zzzh » Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:38 pm

:darrow: Cansips literally forecast dateline EWB from Feb to Dec... Not sure why it has a weak El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12839 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:55 am

30 Day SOI is now below +10 again, 90 day SOI is at +11.6, it used to be at +14 at the start of last month.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12840 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:31 am

Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.
Image

WWB on the 90 day CFS
Image

This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.
Image

We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.
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