ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12841 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.
https://i.imgur.com/D30sFjm.png

WWB on the 90 day CFS
https://i.imgur.com/0I7yKoC.png

This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.
https://i.imgur.com/pZR6ytf.png

We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.

That strong EWB could be the La Niña's last stand.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12842 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.
https://i.imgur.com/D30sFjm.png

WWB on the 90 day CFS
https://i.imgur.com/0I7yKoC.png

This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.
https://i.imgur.com/pZR6ytf.png

We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.

That strong EWB could be the La Niña's last stand.


I think at this point it's safe to assume that La Nina will meet its end this year. The bigger question is how much the Pacific will warm. Will it be a mild warmup, only bringing us to cool neutral or dead neutral levels? Will it be substantial enough that we get warm neutral but not enough for El Nino? Will we see the trimonthly anomalies meet or exceed +0.5 C at some point but then drop below that again, only bringing us to a "pseudo-El Nino" state? Or will we get a bona fide El Nino?

2023 is going to be a much more challenging year to predict in terms of ENSO compared to years like 2020-2022 for sure.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12843 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:56 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.
https://i.imgur.com/D30sFjm.png

WWB on the 90 day CFS
https://i.imgur.com/0I7yKoC.png

This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.
https://i.imgur.com/pZR6ytf.png

We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.

That strong EWB could be the La Niña's last stand.


I think at this point it's safe to assume that La Nina will meet its end this year. The bigger question is how much the Pacific will warm. Will it be a mild warmup, only bringing us to cool neutral or dead neutral levels? Will it be substantial enough that we get warm neutral but not enough for El Nino? Will we see the trimonthly anomalies meet or exceed +0.5 C at some point but then drop below that again, only bringing us to a "pseudo-El Nino" state? Or will we get a bona fide El Nino?

2023 is going to be a much more challenging year to predict in terms of ENSO compared to years like 2020-2022 for sure.

Yeah, I also noticed this
Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wkxzteq_anm.gif
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12844 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:That strong EWB could be the La Niña's last stand.


I think at this point it's safe to assume that La Nina will meet its end this year. The bigger question is how much the Pacific will warm. Will it be a mild warmup, only bringing us to cool neutral or dead neutral levels? Will it be substantial enough that we get warm neutral but not enough for El Nino? Will we see the trimonthly anomalies meet or exceed +0.5 C at some point but then drop below that again, only bringing us to a "pseudo-El Nino" state? Or will we get a bona fide El Nino?

2023 is going to be a much more challenging year to predict in terms of ENSO compared to years like 2020-2022 for sure.

Yeah, I also noticed this
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wkxzteq_anm.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wkxzteq_anm.gif


might probably be expand a little especially now that we might see some strong trades for a few weeks once again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12845 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.
https://i.imgur.com/D30sFjm.png

WWB on the 90 day CFS
https://i.imgur.com/0I7yKoC.png

This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.
https://i.imgur.com/pZR6ytf.png

We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.


no major WWB on CFS 90 day thru February and March. If that's so I would seriously begin to doubt wether or not el niño comes "on time" if will for the hurricane season maybe even peak season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12846 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.


Lmao, good Lord. This is getting absurd.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12847 Postby NotSparta » Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:59 pm

If the atmosphere continues to be staunchly La Nina, I could definitely see a 2001 type deal where there's a push warmer because there is simply no gas left in the tank for La Nina anymore but no push towards +ENSO yet
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12848 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:55 am

NotSparta wrote:If the atmosphere continues to be staunchly La Nina, I could definitely see a 2001 type deal where there's a push warmer because there is simply no gas left in the tank for La Nina anymore but no push towards +ENSO yet


I'm honestly very interested to see how that might impact the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (probably worth talking about in the 2023 indicators thread later this spring). It's something I believe Derek Ortt on Twitter mentioned recently as well, but I'm wondering if leaving La Nina and entering neutral territory (even if it's warm neutral) could somehow allow the Atlantic to be more favorable than last year as "whatever extended La Nina complications" last season suffered may no longer be a player for this upcoming season
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12849 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:59 am

Even in years where presistent subsurface downwelling eventually flipped ENSO to warm neutral/weak El Nino, those years had either much slower trades + at least one true dateline associated WWB.

See 2019, 2018, 2014

So while La Nina is on its way out (La Nina/El Nino actually almost always pause in the late winter/early spring time anyway), lack of atmosphere cooperation can easily lead to a return to those conditions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12850 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:58 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
NotSparta wrote:If the atmosphere continues to be staunchly La Nina, I could definitely see a 2001 type deal where there's a push warmer because there is simply no gas left in the tank for La Nina anymore but no push towards +ENSO yet


I'm honestly very interested to see how that might impact the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (probably worth talking about in the 2023 indicators thread later this spring). It's something I believe Derek Ortt on Twitter mentioned recently as well, but I'm wondering if leaving La Nina and entering neutral territory (even if it's warm neutral) could somehow allow the Atlantic to be more favorable than last year as "whatever extended La Nina complications" last season suffered may no longer be a player for this upcoming season


Yea quite a bit of people think (including myself) that this extended La Niña is starting to have a play in some of the issues we have with the Atlantic at least with being held back. Maybe a return to neutral will help with these issues we just gotta see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12851 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:03 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12852 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:02 am



I'm going to be honest here, I'm kind of lost on what exactly he is basing his idea that we're almost certain for an El Nino this year in that Tweet. I'm not exactly sure what "co2 fairy" and "Southern Hemisphere hotspots" mean as I've never heard of those terms before?

From what I understood earlier, we haven't even reached the SPB, and models seem to like the idea of enhanced trades through this month (as others have pointed out here in this thread). There seem to be a variety of factors that say "it's still too early" and "not so fast" to the idea that we are certainly headed for El Nino this year. I'm not saying El Nino cannot happen this year. I still think there's a non-zero chance. It's just that I'd rather weigh both sides carefully, especially when we're in early February, before making definitive statements. And this year seems to be a much more volatile and challenging ENSO forecast than the previous 3 years when La Nina was basically guaranteed in advance.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12853 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:04 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:


I'm going to be honest here, I'm kind of lost on what exactly he is basing his idea that we're almost certain for an El Nino this year in that Tweet. I'm not exactly sure what "co2 fairy" and "Southern Hemisphere hotspots" mean as I've never heard of those terms before?

From what I understood earlier, we haven't even reached the SPB, and models seem to like the idea of enhanced trades through this month (as others have pointed out here in this thread). There seem to be a variety of factors that say "it's still too early" and "not so fast" to the idea that we are certainly headed for El Nino this year. I'm not saying El Nino cannot happen this year. I still think there's a non-zero chance. It's just that I'd rather weigh both sides carefully, especially when we're in early February, before making definitive statements. And this year seems to be a much more volatile and challenging ENSO forecast than the previous 3 years when La Nina was basically guaranteed in advance.

I think he's been referring to the increased volcanic activity down there, but I think that discussion is worthy of a different topic or not at all completely.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12854 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:27 am

April, May, and June are the key months for me when it comes to building ENSO. February isn't a great month since it is still tail end of prior ENSO events. You want to see trades relax and WWBs show up in those months.

What the current situation can tell us is a fast, hard starting +ENSO isn't occurring like 1982, 1997, 2015 etc. I'd say a slow move the first half the year then gradually quicker past summer towards +ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12855 Postby zzzh » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:24 pm

Long range EPS shows a true MJO induced WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12856 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:08 pm

zzzh wrote:Long range EPS shows a true MJO induced WWB.


Any graphic?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12857 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:56 am

La Niña holding on.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12858 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:31 am

cycloneye wrote:La Niña holding on.

https://i.imgur.com/AJEGamU.jpg


kinda knew the SOI would take a slight rebound given the strong trades we are having right now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12859 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:40 am

Ntxw wrote:April, May, and June are the key months for me when it comes to building ENSO. February isn't a great month since it is still tail end of prior ENSO events. You want to see trades relax and WWBs show up in those months.

What the current situation can tell us is a fast, hard starting +ENSO isn't occurring like 1982, 1997, 2015 etc. I'd say a slow move the first half the year then gradually quicker past summer towards +ENSO.


I think if we get past March without a WWB, the odds for El Nino tank. Cant recall a year other than 2009 that had a late spring El Nino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12860 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:58 am

Euro is calling for an El Niño this year

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1622588425424539648


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