ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13321 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 25, 2023 10:10 pm

The super events of 1997 and 2015 already had a much more depressed thermocline to the east at this point with cold pool below developing in the far western ENSO regions below.

We're more in the trajectory of a 2006 and 2009 event much slower and later peak.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13322 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 26, 2023 9:19 am

 Today's SOI is -21. It will rise sharply again tomorrow. The -SOI streak may or may not end tomorrow as it looks to be close. If not, it looks to end Sunday.

 It will fall back at the end of the month and is progged to drop to ~~-22 on 5/31. May is projected to end up ~-14 to -15.

 Looking further, I see no significant AN SLP in Darwin on the models during 6/1-7. It is looking to average NN to possibly a bit BN. Tahiti is less clear as all show BN early while some (operationals) suggest mainly BN probably lingering the whole week while ensembles suggest mainly NN returning.

 So, whereas the consensus suggests no return to another lengthy strong -SOI the first week of June, it is hard to predict about where that period will end up. For now, I'm leaning fairly neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13323 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 26, 2023 9:48 am

A couple of sub-surface references near this date.

2023
Image

2015
Image

2009
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13324 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 29, 2023 8:57 am

The past years strong El Niños are mentioned by Dr Noll.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1663179636400959488


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Re: ENSO Updates

#13325 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 29, 2023 9:46 am

The meandering of the MJO around the WPAC phases (7 and 8) on the RMM plots over the past two weeks is a sign of the anticipated atmospheric Nino response coming to fruition (the tanking SOI is proof of this as well). It will be exiting the region soon but we'll see how long it will take to re-enter this upcoming month - once again there is disagreement between the Euro/EPS and GFS/GEFS in this case regarding the speed of propagation. The latter looks faster than the former in that regard (although this is typically the case).
Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13326 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 29, 2023 9:55 am

Ntxw wrote:A couple of sub-surface references near this date.

2023
https://i.imgur.com/G1CtATv.png

2015
https://i.imgur.com/LSXocnW.png

2009
https://i.imgur.com/t2ZKvFp.png


Interesting to see how there's that little cold water patch right below the warm surface waters for this year, which isn't exactly something even 2009 had. Not sure if that means anything though
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13327 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 29, 2023 11:21 am

CDAS values over Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 have sharply jumped up.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13328 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 29, 2023 11:45 am

Looks like a solid WWB near 140E-120E before dateline trades pickup again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13329 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Mon May 29, 2023 9:15 pm

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1663313254016327681




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1663323907376529410




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1663334207328845826




Image

Things are continuing to progress towards a robust el nino by the peak of the season and beyond, warming enso, warming pdo, and a cooling west pac aided by Typhoon Mawar. Nothing to suggest any real halt to this process in the near term.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13330 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 29, 2023 10:34 pm

:uarrow: CFS is showing very robust CPAC trades for July.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13331 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Mon May 29, 2023 11:30 pm

Yeah, it's all but a guarantee we will shift into some type of an El Nino event by the end of the summer; it'd take a miracle at this point to avoid it. Now, it's just a matter of how quickly the atmosphere couples with the oceanic interactions and what type of SST configuration sets up in the Pacific, though I'd put money on us breaking the 1C barrier before the end of September in the more western El Nino regions.

Dunno if we'll manage to get into 2015 territory during winter, but man this El Nino should stick around for a bit. I haven't seen signs of anything indicating that there's going to be significant resistance to it in the near-future.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13332 Postby Ntxw » Tue May 30, 2023 12:10 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Yeah, it's all but a guarantee we will shift into some type of an El Nino event by the end of the summer; it'd take a miracle at this point to avoid it. Now, it's just a matter of how quickly the atmosphere couples with the oceanic interactions and what type of SST configuration sets up in the Pacific, though I'd put money on us breaking the 1C barrier before the end of September in the more western El Nino regions.

Dunno if we'll manage to get into 2015 territory during winter, but man this El Nino should stick around for a bit. I haven't seen signs of anything indicating that there's going to be significant resistance to it in the near-future.


Some circles have been discussing. Because it hasn't grown dramatically fast and the western warm pool beneath intact, odds of a multi year +enso may increase. Very strong to Super events that grows quickly tends to flip to La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13333 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 30, 2023 12:38 am

:uarrow: I can provide more resources on this if pressed but most multi-year Ninos are more central Pacific based with persistent +PMM and +PDO signatures.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13334 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2023 7:03 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update 5/30/23= Niño 3.4 at +0.4C / Niño 3 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#13335 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2023 9:05 am

The CPC weekly update of 5/30/23 has Niño 3.4 below the threshold of +0.5C of El Niño. Other ENSO regions have Niño 3 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C and Niño 4 at +0.4C. The subsurface has leveled off in this update. Big June update will be on June 8 when they may or not declare officially El NIño.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update 5/30/23= Niño 3.4 at +0.4C / Niño 3 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C

#13336 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 30, 2023 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:The CPC weekly update of 5/30/23 has Niño 3.4 below the threshold of +0.5C of El Niño. Other ENSO regions have Niño 3 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.0C and Niño 4 at +0.4C. The subsurface has leveled off in this update. Big June update will be on June 8 when they may or not declare officially El NIño.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/kpypLAV.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/ONrM2H0.jpg


I think that based on the past that June 8th will be too early for NOAA to declare El Niño despite it being a near certainty to occur this year. I'm not even sure about July. They take their time usually and usually like to have a string of +0.5+ trimonths.
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI continues to go down: Average 30 day SOI at -16.18 / Average 90 day SOI at -6.48

#13337 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 7:58 am

The SOI index continues the down trend and the 30 day and 90 day averages are in negative.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI continues to go down: Average 30 day at -16.18 / Average 90 day at -6.48

#13338 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 31, 2023 10:23 am

The full May of 2023 SOI comes in at -15. How does this rank compared to other Mays since 1876? It comes in 8th lowest, which is a strong indicator for an upcoming moderate+ and a decent indicator for the chance for a strong+ El Niño in the absence of an ongoing/outgoing one as per this list:


Lowest 20 May SOIs since 1876/Nino peak

1896 -39 (oncoming strong)

1905 -34 (ongoing/oncoming mod)

1953: -26 (ongoing/oncoming weak)

1972: -24 (oncoming super)

1987: -20 (ongoing mod/oncoming strong)

1997: -19 (oncoming super)

1991: -18 (oncoming strong)

2023: -15 (???)

1897: -15 (outgoing strong)

2002: -14 (oncoming mod)

2015: -13 (ongoing weak/oncoming super)

1940: -13 (ongoing mod/oncoming strong)

1947: -12 (outgoing warm neutral)

2005: -12 (outgoing weak)

1994: -12 (oncoming mod)

1957: -12 (oncoming strong)

1951: -12 (oncoming mod)

1912: -12 (outgoing mod)

1929: -11 (oncoming weak)

1946: -10 (oncoming warm neutral)

----------------------------


I'll now take out ongoing/outgoing El Niño years:

1896 -39 (oncoming strong)

1972: -24 (oncoming super)

1997: -19 (oncoming super)

1991: -18 (oncoming strong)

2023: -15 (???)

2002: -14 (oncoming mod)

1947: -12 (outgoing warm neutral)

1994: -12 (oncoming mod)

1957: -12 (oncoming strong)

1951: -12 (oncoming mod)

1929: -11 (oncoming weak)

1946: -10 (oncoming warm neutral)

------------------

Data source:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI continues to go down: Average 30 day at -16.18 / Average 90 day at -6.48

#13339 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:20 am

GFS and Euro are reversing course and now showing robust CPAC trades. The strong WPAC WWB had little dateline penetration.

Some atmosphere coupling issues:
GFS also seems to be setting up another IO WWB. Euro and GFS both show increased chances for TCG in that basin.

Persistent high pressure SE of Baja California is also still very prevalent.

The SPAC is doing its part in moving things towards El Nino. Just waiting on the NPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates: SOI continues to go down: Average 30 day at -16.18 / Average 90 day at -6.48

#13340 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:44 am

Looks like we continue to head towards an El Niño and a potentially strong one, waters really warming south of Mexico near the equator:

Image
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