ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Ntxw
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12501 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 11, 2022 12:04 pm

Looking far ahead, I don't think a super +ENSO would be in the cards for 2023, given the -PDO and how long it takes to overcome that. Though wouldn't be too surprised if something like 1972 or 2009 that nested within a cold PDO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12502 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 11, 2022 12:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).


At this rate the transition is to high end moderate or strong La Nina if anything.


Would it be accurate to say that the stronger this year's La Nina gets the more likely next year would be in some sort of -ENSO state?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12503 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 11, 2022 2:36 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).


At this rate the transition is to high end moderate or strong La Nina if anything.


Would it be accurate to say that the stronger this year's La Nina gets the more likely next year would be in some sort of -ENSO state?

Maybe in a first or second year La Nina it would make a difference. Right now repeat MC WWB's are energizing the WPAC warm pool. It'll be hard for a downwelling KW not to be triggered once the MJO becomes stronger again in the winter. That being said, still need the atmosphere to cooperate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12504 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 11, 2022 3:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).


Most of that Twitter conversation seems agreement that there will be no Nino? Just a question of whether it shows up next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12505 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 11, 2022 3:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:Looking far ahead, I don't think a super +ENSO would be in the cards for 2023, given the -PDO and how long it takes to overcome that. Though wouldn't be too surprised if something like 1972 or 2009 that nested within a cold PDO.


I agree because super Ninos are rare (only 5-6 have ever happened) and we are headed towards a period of low ENSO amplitude as part of a near century long cycle. Probably looking at something like 1957 and 2002 if I had to guess.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12506 Postby Iceresistance » Wed May 11, 2022 3:52 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Looking far ahead, I don't think a super +ENSO would be in the cards for 2023, given the -PDO and how long it takes to overcome that. Though wouldn't be too surprised if something like 1972 or 2009 that nested within a cold PDO.


I agree because super Ninos are rare (only 5-6 have ever happened) and we are headed towards a period of low ENSO amplitude as part of a near century long cycle. Probably looking at something like 1957 and 2002 if I had to guess.

We've never had a Super Nina before, and this one could change that, it's already very strong for the Spring Barrier period.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12507 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 11, 2022 4:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Looking far ahead, I don't think a super +ENSO would be in the cards for 2023, given the -PDO and how long it takes to overcome that. Though wouldn't be too surprised if something like 1972 or 2009 that nested within a cold PDO.


I agree because super Ninos are rare (only 5-6 have ever happened) and we are headed towards a period of low ENSO amplitude as part of a near century long cycle. Probably looking at something like 1957 and 2002 if I had to guess.

We've never had a Super Nina before, and this one could change that, it's already very strong for the Spring Barrier period.


The 1999 and 2008 Ninas were much more stronger during Spring though, the current one is yet to break below -1.0 on the ONI
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12508 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 11, 2022 5:08 pm

Unlike the 1998-2000 La Nina or the 2010-2011 La Nina, this La Nina did not start after a year that was at least a moderate El Nino. That imho is really interesting.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12509 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed May 11, 2022 5:16 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
I agree because super Ninos are rare (only 5-6 have ever happened) and we are headed towards a period of low ENSO amplitude as part of a near century long cycle. Probably looking at something like 1957 and 2002 if I had to guess.

We've never had a Super Nina before, and this one could change that, it's already very strong for the Spring Barrier period.


The 1999 and 2008 Ninas were much more stronger during Spring though, the current one is yet to break below -1.0 on the ONI


2008 was rapidly weakening (-1.6 DJF to -1.0 MAM) though and 1999 weakened too. (-1.5 DJF to -1.0 MAM) This is one is different because it's strengthening this time of year
Last edited by weeniepatrol on Wed May 11, 2022 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12510 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 11, 2022 5:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Unlike the 1998-2000 La Nina or the 2010-2011 La Nina, this La Nina did not start after a year that was at least a moderate El Nino. That imho is really interesting.


While the third year factor is interesting, the 2000 Nino followed a year where ENSO did not rise above -1.0 for the entire year. The 1999 Nino was pretty insane and subsequently the 2000 one had lower temperatures than 2022 upto FMA.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12511 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed May 11, 2022 5:26 pm

Brief review of ONI shows that the last time ONI cooled from FMA to MAM during la Nina was 1955. Most Ninas weaken and a few hold steady. If MAM comes in at -1.1 C or cooler (feasible given falling 3.4 SSTas) then 2022 joins 1955 as the only Ninas on record with a falling ONI during this time
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12512 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 11, 2022 5:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I'm surprised there's still talk about an ENSO transition in 2022. All because some crappy model consensus which don't even show warm neutral.

I agree with everything Eric Webb said (which reaffirms everything that's been said on here for the past month).


Most of that Twitter conversation seems agreement that there will be no Nino? Just a question of whether it shows up next year.

Read the thread again where it gets to the tweets from Ventrice and Hazelton. They're leaving the door open to the possibility of ENSO switching.
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update: For ASO: La Niña=58% / Neutral=33% / El Niño=4%

#12513 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 12, 2022 9:59 am

The CPC May update continues with La Niña dominating for ASO and will extend to the end of 2022 and early 2023.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 May 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update: For ASO: La Niña 58% / Neutral 38% / El Niño 4%

#12514 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 12, 2022 1:42 pm

The ENSO Blog has interesting things to read and their headline is "Piece of cake"
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update: For ASO: La Niña 58% / Neutral 38% / El Niño 4%

#12515 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu May 12, 2022 3:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:The ENSO Blog has interesting things to read and their headline is "Piece of cake"


Interesting reading there...
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update: For ASO: La Niña 58% / Neutral 38% / El Niño 4%

#12516 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri May 13, 2022 12:03 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The ENSO Blog has interesting things to read and their headline is "Piece of cake"


Interesting reading there...
https://i.imgur.com/Qt1VSzm.png


They mention second year events, but isn't this year technically a third event?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12517 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 16, 2022 10:51 am

Looks like 2022 is a lock for -ENSO and a decent likelihood of continuing La Nina in some form or another. Guess I'll just wait until the 2023 ENSO state discussions come up. 8-)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12518 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed May 18, 2022 12:50 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Looks like 2022 is a lock for -ENSO and a decent likelihood of continuing La Nina in some form or another. Guess I'll just wait until the 2023 ENSO state discussions come up. 8-)


If ENSO stays negative into 2023, would that be a record long period?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12519 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 19, 2022 4:48 pm

Weak La Niña for ASO. None of the models has El Niño for the peak months.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1527404229295362049


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12520 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 21, 2022 2:40 pm

Thermocline is leveling out a little bit, which for the time being will slow the ENSO regions from cooling as much for a few weeks.

Image
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