ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Ocean component of ENSO is again trying to flip to +ENSO.
But the atmosphere continues to not cooperate so... Currently, more of the same of what we've seen in the last 3 years or so.
Lot's of time for things to change but I would argue this time last year, things looked more prime for +ENSO compared to the current setup.
But the atmosphere continues to not cooperate so... Currently, more of the same of what we've seen in the last 3 years or so.
Lot's of time for things to change but I would argue this time last year, things looked more prime for +ENSO compared to the current setup.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8915
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ENSO Updates
I can't find a good spot to post this, y'all can move it to another location if need be.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1600317608108392448
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1600317608108392448
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139137
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral. El Niño chances increase to 49% for JAS.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139137
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS
6 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8915
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS
I have heard that the La Nina has rapidly weakened in November and could be a goner before 2022 comes to an end.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS
El Niño seems like a strong possibility. Hopefully it ends the cat4 strikes on the US.
1 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 737
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS
Actually I'm very worried about and active Epac next year, we saw strong landfalls in niña years this past two seasons, I don't want to think we could expect if conditions are actually good in that basin for Mexico
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Nothing to indicate that La Nina has weakened in the atmosphere. Low level bias remains La Nina esque with strong trades.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO Updates
MJO will move into Phase 4/5 in ~10 days. Strong rising branch will establish over Maritime continent, causing a strong EWB in equatorial Pacific. La Nina won't go away...
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JR9yfJv.gif
Weak dateline wwb incoming.
Won't do much IMO, very weak anomalies. But subsurface warm anomalies should continue to push eastward. Look at that IO WWB though. Clearly La Nina is still in control for now.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
MJO needs to stop lingering in the IO if we are going to get an El Nino next year.
2 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9863
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ENSO Updates
Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3360
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ENSO Updates
Blown Away wrote:Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?
Yes; 1973-1975 were Ninas, followed by 1976, which was an El Nino. Same goes for 1954-1956, when 1957 was an El Nino.
Now with that being said, 1998-2000 were El Ninos, but 2001 was a neutral year, and it ended up being on level with 2000's activity (interestingly with more major hurricanes and hurricanes).
Personally, I'm very curious to see if we end up with an El Nino or a neutral for next year (imho I think it's pretty safe to say that La Nina is not going to happen). Because if for whatever reason we fall short of El Nino thresholds, we could conceivably see at least an average Atlantic season yet again.
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
In terms of odds, anytime there's a double dip Nina, an El Nino becomes more likely. But they can fail as we seen in 2012 and 2022 and you end up with either neutral or another La Nina.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
90 days CFS showing strong dual trade bursts, one in January and one in February. I wouldn't give any of these subsurface anomalies any weight until we get a true WWB.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Entering the final 2 weeks of the year and still no +PDO or +PMM.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139137
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
CPC weekly update of 12/19/22 has Niño 3.4 warming a little bit up to -0.9C.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Westerly anomalies over the MC. I think for the first time this winter. Potentially see warmer subsurface anomalies that could eventually move east. Very strong trade burst over the dateline.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- weeniepatrol
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
- Location: WA State
Re: ENSO Updates
Uhh, OK then
I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..
I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Chris90, Google Adsense [Bot] and 163 guests