ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C

#12961 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:26 pm

Not necessarily a bad or good thing for El Nino as there's still time, but the CFS has pushed back a large dateline WWB to late May.
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Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C

#12962 Postby Long John » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:38 am

If that WWB keeps getting pushed back in time that could mean we may not even get an el nino at all this fall
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Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C

#12963 Postby SFLcane » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:09 am

Kingarabian wrote:Not necessarily a bad or good thing for El Nino as there's still time, but the CFS has pushed back a large dateline WWB to late May.


Hasn't really changed from my point of view.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12964 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:44 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12965 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:45 pm


What is a DKW? I saw that on the first twitter post.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12966 Postby zzzh » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:16 pm

:uarrow: Downwelling Kelvin Wave.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12967 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:52 pm

zzzh wrote::uarrow: Downwelling Kelvin Wave.

Thanks for that!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12968 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:27 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12969 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:02 am

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12970 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:08 am

My goodness, this is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen

Image
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12971 Postby NotSparta » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:43 am

Iceresistance wrote:My goodness, this is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif


It's two things coming together, the SST gradient climatologically weakens this time of year and the eastern equatorial Pacific becomes relatively warm. The anomalous warming we've seen adds onto that to make it look even more extreme
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12972 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:56 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12973 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Mar 18, 2023 12:13 am

Seeing the latest MJO forecasts, the strong MJO wave will enter the circle of death as it goes to the Indian Ocean. I've learned over the past 3 years that La Nina favors strong MJO in the Indian Ocean. If the MJO actually dies in IO, I think we can now say that La Nina has already lost its grip, atmospherically.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12974 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Mar 18, 2023 4:38 am

BoM model seems to be smoking the good stuff.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12975 Postby Cycles » Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:47 am

dexterlabio wrote:Seeing the latest MJO forecasts, the strong MJO wave will enter the circle of death as it goes to the Indian Ocean. I've learned over the past 3 years that La Nina favors strong MJO in the Indian Ocean. If the MJO actually dies in IO, I think we can now say that La Nina has already lost its grip, atmospherically.

:uarrow: QBO being westerly may effect the MJO strength prediction in the indo and also in the maritime. Usually IN a easterly QBO phase MJO is stronger and more reliable to predict


Image

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032653 For example, the seasonal average amplitude of the tropical top-of-atmosphere longwave radiative response to the MJO is approximately doubled during easterly QBO phases relative to westerly QBO phases during boreal winter (Son et al., 2017). This increase in boreal winter MJO activity during easterly QBO phases is possibly caused by either a greater number and increased longevity of MJO events (Zhang & Zhang, 2018) or stronger MJO events with greater duration (Hendon & Abhik, 2018). Easterly QBO phases favor a more active MJO over the Maritime Continent than westerly QBO phases




https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD028171 MJO activities between the two QBO phases is possible perhaps only when potential roles of upper-tropospheric or even stratospheric processes are fully considered in MJO theories.

The observed QBO-MJO connection may also have substantial implications to sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction. The MJO and QBO are two potential sources of S2S predictability. The degree to which their connection would affect overall S2S predictability and prediction skill is an extremely important issue to advance S2S prediction. Increased MJO prediction skill in QBOE in an operational model (Marshall et al., 2017) is very encouraging. It would be interesting to explore whether the overall S2S prediction skill is higher in QBOE than QBOW and if so, to what degree it is related to the MJO


..........................................................................................................................................................................................

In my region down under over the last 2 months you can really notice a difference now with heat. Last summer was very coolish in the eastern states nina
atmosphere QLD,NSW,VIC. Sure don't feel like any nina atmosphere now down under in our eastern states. :sun:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12976 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:03 am

30 day SOI has finally flipped negative. Still a long way to go and its 50/50 March averages out as a negative with the MJO entering the IO next week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12977 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:13 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12978 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:06 pm

This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.

Image

Image

Image

Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12979 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.

https://i.imgur.com/yP6y7qc.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uH79ejA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/MNKqaa9.gif

Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.


When will the next driver to El Niño come?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12980 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ntxw wrote:This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.

https://i.imgur.com/yP6y7qc.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uH79ejA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/MNKqaa9.gif

Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.


When will the next driver to El Niño come?


April, especially later into April. Long term guidance, regardless of what the MJO is doing, suggestive rising motion returns to the Pacific and sinking motion over the MC. Currents in the eq Pacific are quite favorable.
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