ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/AlexSKolker/status/1668953937402052609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668953937402052609%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

The question is will the Atlantic nino counter the pacific one to allow for a more active season?

That arrow in the Atlantic points to warm anomalies north of the equator. I have never heard of this Atlantic Nino Dakar. Is it the same thing as the traditional Atlantic Nino/equatorial mode that is located in the Atlantic and centered on the equator like regular ENSO or is it a some sort of different phenomenon involving temperature anomalies further north?

For those that don't know: the Atlantic has an analog of ENSO located along the equator. It doesn't really cycle - likely because it doesn't couple with the annual climatology as well as ENSO does with the Atlantic being smaller in width (it takes much less than a year for transfer of warmth to occur between Africa and SAmerica) and because it is much weaker than ENSO and gets dominated by other factors. As a result it is instead more episodic. Early 1997 is a good example of a relatively robust "Atlantic Nina". It is wind/convection driven (similar to ENSO and unlike the AMO) but because of the small size of the equatorial Atlantic, is more of a curiosity than a signal with strong influence on global climate or hurricane activity.

This region of the very warm Atlantic is also looking at 22-26C, anomalies is relative. It doesn't have the energy budget to influence tropical convection the way the equatorial Pacific is, in particular the central regions where we're discussing 26C or greater.

[LarryWx]

The cooling has ended with warming restarted in all three datasets:


CDAS: warmed 0.13 to 0.697

Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.18 to 0.890

OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.42 to 0.860

[JetFuel_SE]

The cooling has ended with warming restarted in all three datasets:


CDAS: warmed 0.13 to 0.697

Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.18 to 0.890

OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.42 to 0.860

Spot the one with a cold bias lol.

[Kingarabian]

JMA's May PDO value was -1.6044. An improvement from April but still lacking and the PDO in the past 2 weeks seemed to have cooled further.

[Ntxw]

Below the surface is starting to even out the slope following in line with the more traditional El Nino subsurface look. Underneath thermocline is depressed in the central and eastern regions >28C, as the west pac pool cools and central-east warms. Also ~7C appearing in the eastern regions.

[LarryWx]

Today's weekly update (for last week) keeps Nino 3.4 at +0.9 with Niño 1+2 up slightly to +2.7.

The brand new BoM run has Sep/Oct/Nov Nino 3.4 at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then gets July way up to +1.8 vs +1.7 on the prior run!

 Meanwhile, the SOI has started its rise from yesterday's -26 June MTD low with today at -19. I expect it to rise to near +15 over the next week or so.

[Kingarabian]

July will be a crucial month for the progression of this El Nino. CFS has strong CPAC trades through out the period with very little MJO/CCKW reflection.

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 will see some modest warming the coming week to two weeks, similar to what was seen in the last spike.

[LarryWx]

The newest BoM run warms July to +1.8, which is a whopping 0.9 warming vs its June initialization of +0.9. I looked at the largest ERSST based monthly warmings for developing El Nino years to give me an idea of how believable a 0.9 warming in just one month is:

1. +0.86 May to June 1968

2. +0.75 Jan to Feb 1976

3. +0.71 Aug to Sep 1982

4. +0.63 June to July 1963

5. +0.56 Oct to Nov 2009

So, a 0.9 warming would about equal the largest monthly warming on record (back to 1950) for an oncoming El Niño, which was from May to June in 1968. Keep in mind that it's still possible that June will end up at +1.0 if there's enough rewarming before the end of this month. If so, it would be a 0.8 warming, which would be near the Jan to Feb of 1976 warming.

So, what I get from this is that July warming to +1.8 wouldn't mean an unprecedentedly steep monthly warming meaning it is possible. However, it being about the steepest along with the prior BoM runs being too warm for June tells me to be skeptical that July will get to +1.8. The next 6 weeks will be fascinating to follow.
--------------------

Monthly ERSST 1950+:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .ascii.txt

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if we'll get to strong Nino 3.4 levels in July. I think it'll fluctuate between +0.8C and +1.2C since trades seem like they will be enhanced over Nino 4 and portions of Nino 3.4.

[Ntxw]

Thermocline continues to move towards less sloping, especially in the east. This has been a different path (or you can say than we're used to in the modern warming era with WWBs in the CPAC.) The westerlies are in the EPAC instead.





Might get our first weekly 1C reading next week.

[Iceresistance]

SOI index is spiking, The 30-day has taken out the -60 values.

[LarryWx]

SOI index is spiking, The 30-day has taken out the -60 values.

This spike was totally expected per the Euro and GFS suites.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Warming appears to have paused, or at least have slowed down. Forecasts no longer appear to be as bullish as expected. But the eastern regions remain very, very warm.

[LarryWx]

Warming appears to have paused, or at least have slowed down. Forecasts no longer appear to be as bullish as expected. But the eastern regions remain very, very warm.

At this point, every day that goes by without significant warming notably reduces the chance for the near record rate of warmup (from +0.9 C to +1.8 C) of the 3.4 anomaly that the BoM is calling for from June to July. Today had no warmup as you implied. It is now put up or shut up time or the July 3.4 is going to end up well below +1.8.

[LarryWx]

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C.
Any other guesses?

[Kingarabian]

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C.
Any other guesses?

I think between 0.9C and 1.0C as well. Probably +1.0c.

[LarryWx]

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C.
Any other guesses?

I think between 0.9C and 1.0C as well. Probably +1.0c.

The update for 3.4 just came out at +1.0. Also, Nino 1+2 just came out at a new high for the year of +2.9 vs +2.7 on last week's release. Nino 3 is up to +1.4 from +1.2 while Nino 4 has risen to +0.7 from +0.6.

[cycloneye]

Here is the whole CPC weekly update that has niño 3.4 at +1.0C.

NIño 1+2 at +2.9C
NIño 3 at +1.4C
NIño 3.4 at +1.0C
Niño 4 at +0.7C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

With a steady growing El Nino, nino 3 has been a good proxy of where 3.4 goes roughly about a month later. BOM’s 1.8C is likely too optimistic. Something in the range of 1.4 to 1.5C by the end of July is more realistic.