ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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underthwx
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12621 Postby underthwx » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
underthwx wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

https://i.imgur.com/neB9dwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/nYh3OxG.png

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

https://i.imgur.com/5aSjyuT.gif


With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)


No, the Corilios force is the Earth's deflection of air towards the right in the NHEM and to the left in the SHEM and measured by f=2*angular velocity*sin(latitude). Trade winds are not directly related to the Coriolis force even if the winds are necessary to conserve angular momentum.


Thankyuu YE!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12622 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:11 am

CPC has Nino 3.4 warmer at -0.5C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12623 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:15 am

Kingarabian wrote:CPC has Nino 3.4 warmer at -0.5C.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12624 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:19 am

Cool anomalies building at about 150W-140W.
Image

Should be another upwelling KW soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12625 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:33 am

:uarrow: here we go..

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12626 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:36 pm

Trades going strong, below is not anomalies but actual values.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12627 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:33 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12628 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:43 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12629 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:48 am

The strong trades are starting to have effects below. Nina rules the roost.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12630 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:47 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly 7/18/22 update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.6C

#12631 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:40 am

Niño 3.4 more cooler on this update.

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12632 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:50 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12633 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:14 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12634 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:55 pm

This is definitely shaping up to be one of the more powerful Nina events. Trades have dramatically expanded the cold pool very quickly. Would be unusual if the third Nina is the stronger of the 3.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12635 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:38 pm


Eric Webb is a beast when it comes to ENSO but I have to disagree here. Probably peak around -1.2C-1.5C ish. SWCONUS will struggle regardless with the drought though.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 7/25/22: Niño 3.4 down to 0.7C

#12636 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:28 pm

La Niña cools more in this CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 7/25/22: Niño 3.4 down to -0.7C

#12637 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:55 pm

June PDO... -1.21. Lowest June value since 2008.

June 2021 was very close, with -1.18.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO=-1.21 / Lowest June data since 2008

#12638 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:56 pm

Here is the link to the PDO data that is the lowest June since 2008.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO=-1.21 / Lowest June data since 2008

#12639 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:22 pm

This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO=-1.21 / Lowest June data since 2008

#12640 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.


Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?
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