ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12921 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:06 am

Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.


If El Nino is on the way it'll flip during the summer. But usually either the PDO or PMM signatures are much more positive preceding any El Nino.


So have there ever been El Ninos with -PDOs? How did EPAC activity fare during such years?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12922 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:20 pm

Kingarabian wrote:EPS 850mb zonal wind at 5N-5S has a strong DL trade burst by mid March.


If that's the case that would further my doubt and confusion about this el niño debate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12923 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:31 pm

The MJO has jumped into Phase 7 and could get REALLY strong in Phases 8 and 1.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12924 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:42 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12925 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:25 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12926 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:32 am

The CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 warming to -0.2C but more east is warming much more with Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12927 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:37 am

cycloneye wrote:The CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 warming to -0.2C but more east is warming much more with Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C.

https://i.imgur.com/0Dp85N2.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/qo4ne9f.jpg

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Goodness, it's really trying to kickstart an El Nino (I almost said La Nina) even though were still in the Spring Barrier.

I also want to mention that Nino 3 is at +0.1ºC
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12928 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:10 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.


If El Nino is on the way it'll flip during the summer. But usually either the PDO or PMM signatures are much more positive preceding any El Nino.


So have there ever been El Ninos with -PDOs? How did EPAC activity fare during such years?


I believe 1972 had -PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12929 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:42 pm

With how quickly Nino 3.4 is rising, I'd expect CPC to declare the end of La Nina in their next update. We'll likely see CPC and BOM issue El Nino watches fairly soon.

Ever since the 2015-16 Super Nino, we did have an extended period of +ENSO in 2018-early 2020, but that event was never particularly strong and Nino 3.4 fluctuated in and out of Nino territory. It's always challenging to predict ENSO this time of year, but I'm not really feeling an El Nino bust this year. This -ENSO event is dissipating earlier in the year than many years that went on to become significant El Ninos. I wouldn't be shocked if we are in an El Nino by June.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12930 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:50 pm

I take a good look at the state of the ENSO in my weekly video post. I think it is also worth nothing how warm the GOM and W ATL are as well considering we are now less than 90 days from the start of hurricane season.



Link: https://youtu.be/MZjQ_aLBwHw
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / Niño 1+2 up to +1.1C

#12931 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:52 pm

:uarrow: GOM has little correlation with activity and WATL being warm isn’t an ideal SST setup because of Hadley Cell stretching and the high latitude blocking it generally encourages that disrupts the RWT and results in anti-cyclonic wave breaking.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update Thu: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12932 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:17 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:With how quickly Nino 3.4 is rising, I'd expect CPC to declare the end of La Nina in their next update. We'll likely see CPC and BOM issue El Nino watches fairly soon.

Ever since the 2015-16 Super Nino, we did have an extended period of +ENSO in 2018-early 2020, but that event was never particularly strong and Nino 3.4 fluctuated in and out of Nino territory. It's always challenging to predict ENSO this time of year, but I'm not really feeling an El Nino bust this year. This -ENSO event is dissipating earlier in the year than many years that went on to become significant El Ninos. I wouldn't be shocked if we are in an El Nino by June.



The big CPC update will be this thursday when they may end La NIña advisory. In the Febuary one, they had 60% chance of El Niño by ASO. Here is that update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update Thu: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12933 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:30 am

Kingarabian This is now near the dateline.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1633111972404248579


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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update Thu: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12934 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:21 am

cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian This is now near the dateline.

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1633111972404248579/photo/1


That would be impressive if it was 850mb averages at 5S to 5N and not at 15S to 15N. CPC and other organizations + historical climo uses the area between 5S to 5N for ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update Thu: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12935 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:37 pm

30 day SOI down to +8. Let's see if it can breach negative territory before the MJO restarts in the IO.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12936 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:16 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12937 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:36 pm

NMME is all in for El NIño. Notable thing is the dry Caribbean.

Image

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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12938 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:NMME is all in for El NIño. Notable thing is the dry Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/0BNgNp3.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZDdH4so.png

The moisture and SST forecasts make me think 2023 could be like a less active version of 2018, with a dead Caribbean but lots of activity in the subtropics and some MDR activity. Like in 2018, the eastern Caribbean/westernmost MDR will probably be a full-on shredder.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12939 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:NMME is all in for El NIño. Notable thing is the dry Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/0BNgNp3.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZDdH4so.png


One thing I would note about that precip graphic is how dry it is around Hawaii and that region of the Pacific. Wouldn't El Ninos help make that area more moist?
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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12940 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:48 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NMME is all in for El NIño. Notable thing is the dry Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/0BNgNp3.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZDdH4so.png


One thing I would note about that precip graphic is how dry it is around Hawaii and that region of the Pacific. Wouldn't El Ninos help make that area more moist?


CPAC/EPAC activity relies on the PDO and PMM being positive.

Looks like the models aren't showing these two important variables flipping regardless of their El Nino depictions.
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