ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13361 Postby zzzh » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:22 pm

MAM ONI is 0.1 while AM MEI is -0.1. Atmosphere response is lagging behind the ocean.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13362 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:58 pm

We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

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Re: ENSO: June CPC big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13363 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:06 pm

LarryWx wrote: Per this morning's CPC weekly release, all four Nino regions' anomalies warmed 0.2-0.4 in the OISST based weeklies covering last week's significant warming centered on May 31st (keep in mind these are based on the prior calendar week and are rounded to the nearest 0.1):

Nino 1+2: warmed 0.3 to +2.3

Nino 3: warmed 0.3 to +1.1

Nino 3.4: warmed 0.4 to +0.8

Nino 4: warmed 0.2 to +0.6

 In Nino 3.4 for the average for the same period (last calendar week) in comparison, CDAS per Cowan's graph of dailies was only +0.57. As just mentioned, OISST for last week was +0.8, implying between +0.75 and +0.85 since it was rounded. So, OISST was at least 0.18 warmer than CDAS last week. It had averaged warmer by 0.13 for Mar-May overall per my earlier post.

 The 0Z 6/5/23 CDAS is still rising steadily and is up to +0.73. That means that the current OISST could be +0.9. and that the CFS' +1.0 for June is quite believable. The new BoM's +1.2 will still be tough to reach but we will see.

Sources of data:

OISST based weeklies:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... st9120.for

CDAS for Nino 3.4 from Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png


I'm skeptical of the BOM too for outlier but it's not like the ECMWF is not impressive either. Strong event there, even though I want to disregard the BOM for wild numbers and likely to not achieve, but one big WWB near the dateline will break it all open quickly. That's the caveat, it's put groundwork for a lot of heat. Managed to do with just weakened trades, full blown westerlies will break the dam.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13364 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

The prolonged -ENSO event likely has a lot to do with it yeah. You don't see three consecutive moderate La Niña episodes that often. By default that builds up a lot of subsurface warmth, which eventually has be released someday. So even though we really haven't gotten potent dateline WWBs and the SST config in the northern Pacific and north Atlantic aren't very optimal, the intensity of the subsurface anoms will likely carry this event on its own, and as I've said before, we really don't need a powerful WWB to cause the warmth to surface.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13365 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:23 pm

The GFS is showing some really robust trades from about 70w to the dateline for almost the entire month of June, and the subsurface anomalies in the WPAC don't seem as robust as in April and May

Image

Actual temps
Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13366 Postby Teban54 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

Looking at the series of anomaly maps, the first impression I got was actually background global warming. This was mentioned by jconsor a month ago:

(Original S2K comment)

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13367 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:54 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

Looking at the series of anomaly maps, the first impression I got was actually background global warming. This was mentioned by jconsor a month ago:

(Original S2K comment)

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060


ONI for ENSO is a moving average updated every few years. So some aspects of background warming is already included. We are also ahead now in June vs that May Spring barrier post. In fact one could make the reverse argument that in terms of actual SSTs, weaker events now have the power of less warmer SSTs back then that were better events due to overall hotter oceanic waters.

And that's the caveat of all ocean warming for any basin, we just don't know how these new warmer normals will reflect.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13368 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

Looking at the series of anomaly maps, the first impression I got was actually background global warming. This was mentioned by jconsor a month ago:

(Original S2K comment)

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060


ONI for ENSO is a moving average updated every few years. So some aspects of background warming is already included. We are also ahead now in June vs that May Spring barrier post. In fact one could make the reverse argument that in terms of actual SSTs, weaker events now have the power of less warmer SSTs back then that were better events due to overall hotter oceanic waters.

And that's the caveat of all ocean warming for any basin, we just don't know how these new warmer normals will reflect.


Are you familiar with the concept of RONI (relative ONI) vs ONI? Right now, the RONI is ~0.4 C lower than the ONI due to overall warmer tropical SSTs throughout the globe. So, the impact of El Niño with ONI of, say, +1.7 (strong) would correspond to an impact you'd get from a +1.3 (moderate).
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13369 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:25 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Looking at the series of anomaly maps, the first impression I got was actually background global warming. This was mentioned by jconsor a month ago:

(Original S2K comment)

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060


ONI for ENSO is a moving average updated every few years. So some aspects of background warming is already included. We are also ahead now in June vs that May Spring barrier post. In fact one could make the reverse argument that in terms of actual SSTs, weaker events now have the power of less warmer SSTs back then that were better events due to overall hotter oceanic waters.

And that's the caveat of all ocean warming for any basin, we just don't know how these new warmer normals will reflect.


Are you familiar with the concept of RONI (relative ONI) vs ONI? Right now, the RONI is ~0.4 C lower than the ONI due to overall warmer tropical SSTs throughout the globe. So, the impact of El Niño with ONI of, say, +1.7 (strong) would correspond to an impact you'd get from a +1.3 (moderate).


Sure do! I view it similar to ESOI vs SOI. Probably paints a better picture overall, however with limited data access/visibility and familiarity we tend not to use it as much.

CPC ENSO team had a wonderful blog on it.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-running-fever-or-it-global-warming

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13371 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:10 pm

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1665695658974629888




If we do in fact have an above normal Atlantic it will probably look like 2011 with a lot of subtropical activity. Maybe this azores system and January hurricane are saying something? I fully expect that the strong to super nino we're seeing will destroy the caribbean and mdr during the peak....
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13372 Postby USTropics » Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:59 am

Sciencerocks wrote:https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1665695658974629888

If we do in fact have an above normal Atlantic it will probably look like 2011 with a lot of subtropical activity. Maybe this azores system and January hurricane are saying something? I fully expect that the strong to super nino we're seeing will destroy the caribbean and mdr during the peak....


From a seasonal forecast perspective, this year is extremely difficult to predict accurately imo. There are no reasonable analogs in the satellite era (1967-present). Using the latest June forecast of SSTAs by the ECMWF ensemble runs, the best analogs I could find would be 1969 or 1987, and that doesn't fully capture the warmth we are seeing in the Atlantic/Canary current.

June ECMWF Ensemble Forecast for JAS
Image

1969
Image

1987
Image

1951 has also been discussed frequently as the closest analog year, and is right on the cusp of reliable oceanic data.
Image

Looking beyond reliable satellite/oceanic data (and again, will preface this by stating this data isn't as accurate), there are some intriguing analogs. Adjusting climo periods for their respective era, 1899, 1877, and 1878 are also had decent representations:

1877
Image

1878
Image

1899
Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13373 Postby LarryWx » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:39 am

24 hour Nino 3.4 SSTa changes per Levi Cowan's CDAS graphs 6Z to 6Z:

5/29 to 5/30: +0.039

5/30 to 5/31: +0.023

5/31 to 6/1: +0.049

6/1 to 6/2: +0.009

6/2 to 6/3: +0.023

6/3 to 6/4: +0.036

6/4 to 6/5: +0.033

6/5 to 6/6: +0.084
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13374 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:44 am

EWB is forecast to dominate Niño 3.4 this June as per GFS and ECMWF. Although I think it is worth pointing out that easterlies had already prevailed at some point in the previous months, particularly in Niño 1+2. Yet, the net change in SSTs remains positive.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13375 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:44 am

EDIT: Duplicate post
Last edited by dexterlabio on Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13376 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:49 am

BoM declares El NIño Alert.

Image


Image

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13377 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:49 am

BoM declares El NIño Alert. They have a Strong El Niño for August.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Image


Image

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Re: ENSO: BoM declares El Niño Alert

#13378 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:54 am

Wish we had buoy data pre-1980s. We're well ahead of most moderate +ENSO events of the modern era but not quite the newer Supers. 1972 would likely paint us the best picture (adjusted for decadal warming) but just not a lot of output to go by.

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13379 Postby Dean_175 » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:12 am

Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.



One thing that is probably holding the WWBs back is the lack of cool anomalies in the far western Pacific. 1982, 1997, and to a lesser extent 2015 had significant cool anomalies and upwelling in the far west near Australia and Indonesia by this time. Cool anomalies help promulgate an event because anomalous ascent and + precipitation in one region must be balanced by descent in another. The super El Nino events all showed a dipole pattern of increased precipitation in the central Pacific and suppressed in the western, Indonesia, Australia, and parts of SE Asia developing during the spring (March, April, May). We have yet to observe that this year and we are going into June. In fact, during much of the spring of this year, the warm anomalies in the far west were greater than those in the Nino3.4 region. We also did not observe nearly the same westerly wind anomalies this year as during any of those years (including 1982, which "took off" a bit later than the others). The strongest anomalies are in the far east which does not couple to the atmosphere as strongly as those anomalies farther west where the base state is warmer. Incidentally, we are entering a time of the year in which normal SSTs in that region become even cooler than they normally are.

To a certain extent, yes- the extended cold ENSO "bottles up" the warmth. During a cold event, the stronger anti-cyclonic wind stress anomalies forced by the stronger trades produces net mass transport to the equator. The enhanced Ekman pumping produces vortex compression and in a steady state, the ocean compensates by transporting water equatorward (slightly changing the equations from "steady state" result in the spinning up of ocean Rossby Waves that form from a similar mechanism). Over a couple of years, equatorial heat content was restored back to a level that produces El Nino. This is related to a concept called Sverdrup transport and is an important part of the cycling of ENSO. If there is "more heat" in the equatorial Pacific resulting from a thermocline that averages deeper, then upwelling will be reduced even under normal trade winds.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13380 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:45 pm

Dean_175 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.



One thing that is probably holding the WWBs back is the lack of cool anomalies in the far western Pacific. 1982, 1997, and to a lesser extent 2015 had significant cool anomalies and upwelling in the far west near Australia and Indonesia by this time. Cool anomalies help promulgate an event because anomalous ascent and + precipitation in one region must be balanced by descent in another. The super El Nino events all showed a dipole pattern of increased precipitation in the central Pacific and suppressed in the western, Indonesia, Australia, and parts of SE Asia developing during the spring (March, April, May). We have yet to observe that this year and we are going into June. In fact, during much of the spring of this year, the warm anomalies in the far west were greater than those in the Nino3.4 region. We also did not observe nearly the same westerly wind anomalies this year as during any of those years (including 1982, which "took off" a bit later than the others). The strongest anomalies are in the far east which does not couple to the atmosphere as strongly as those anomalies farther west where the base state is warmer. Incidentally, we are entering a time of the year in which normal SSTs in that region become even cooler than they normally are.

To a certain extent, yes- the extended cold ENSO "bottles up" the warmth. During a cold event, the stronger anti-cyclonic wind stress anomalies forced by the stronger trades produces net mass transport to the equator. The enhanced Ekman pumping produces vortex compression and in a steady state, the ocean compensates by transporting water equatorward (slightly changing the equations from "steady state" result in the spinning up of ocean Rossby Waves that form from a similar mechanism). Over a couple of years, equatorial heat content was restored back to a level that produces El Nino. This is related to a concept called Sverdrup transport and is an important part of the cycling of ENSO. If there is "more heat" in the equatorial Pacific resulting from a thermocline that averages deeper, then upwelling will be reduced even under normal trade winds.


Some great points! Also to mention this is one of the warmest, equatorial WPAC warm pools in memory. This slow burn will likely be a long lasting event if some history is to be seen (2014). So until it is flushed eastward, it won't flip so fast to a La Nina like 1997-98 or 2015-16.
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