ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12701 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:33 pm

Every model has a moderate WPAC MJO except for the CFS.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12702 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:24 am

Daily SOI was +37. 30-day average has risen to just below +20.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12703 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:28 am

weeniepatrol wrote:Daily SOI was +37. 30-day average has risen to just below +20.


Thermocline is about as classically Nina as it gets. Yes, that's 18-20C water emerging in Nino 3 now

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12704 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:17 am

Some signs on the Euro that there will be a solid slowdown in the trades near the dateline towards the end of the month.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12705 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:27 am

Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?

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https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12706 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:58 am

Iceresistance wrote:Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png

There's still warm anomalies east of Japan but the waters north of Hawaii are cooling. Good step towards a classic +PDO if the Japan waters can cool. A positive PDO would increase El Nino chances. Still a long way from El Nino though.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12707 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:07 am

Latest 90 day CFS is now showing a strong DL WWB from mid November to January.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12708 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:43 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Nina still going strong, but what is with the warm anomalies in the Northern Pacific?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png



 https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1580582417773244416


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12709 Postby jiminluv » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest 90 day CFS is now showing a strong DL WWB from mid November to January.


Can you show me proof please?
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Re: ENSO Updates: Triple-dip La Niña continues for Winter 2022-23 / Neutral after May 2023

#12710 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2022 10:15 am

CPC Enso Blog

Interesting things from CPC about when this loooong lasting La Niña might or will end:

For what seems like the 247th month in a row, La Niña is still in charge in the tropical Pacific. It’s really only been about a year with continuous La Niña, as it took a break summer 2021 and re-developed October 2021, but it seems like longer! There’s a 75% chance La Niña will be present this winter (December–February); forecasters favor a transition to neutral during February–April 2023.

La Niña conditions took a vacation last summer, but the Niño-3.4 index has been negative since mid-2020. The Niño-3.4 index, our primary measurement for ENSO, measures the difference between current and long-term average sea surface temperature in a specific region in the tropical Pacific, where long-term is currently 1991–2020. According to ERSSTv5, our favorite sea surface temperature dataset, the Niño-3.4 index ticked slightly more negative to -1.1°C in September 2022. This is approximately tied with 1999 for the 6th most negative Niño-3.4 index on record for the month of September.

Forecasters are very confident that La Niña will continue through the end of the year: the probability of La Niña through October–December is 95%. I got into detail about the sources behind the high level of confidence last month, and they remain the same this month. First, there’s that Niño-3.4 index, substantially exceeding the La Niña threshold of cooler than -0.5°C.

Also, the La Niña atmospheric response is clearly locked in, shown by stronger-than-average near-surface winds along the equatorial Pacific Ocean (the trade winds), less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific, and more rain over Indonesia. All these factors illustrate an enhanced Walker circulation. One of the ways that we measure the Walker circulation is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which relates the surface air pressure over Darwin, Australia to the pressure over Tahiti.

We spend so much time and energy studying La Niña and El Niño because they affect global atmospheric circulation, changing climate patterns in somewhat predictable ways. Check the second half of last month’s post for a collection of La Niña’s potential effect on North American and global weather and climate.

There are many different things that go into a seasonal forecast, but the two biggies are ENSO and recent trends, meaning the tendency of temperature and rain/snow over the recent 10 or 15 years. Tom described how the recent trends work, so take a look at that post for details.


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Re: ENSO Updates: Weekly update at 0.8C / Triple-dip La Niña for Winter 2022-23 / Neutral after March 2023

#12711 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2022 10:47 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: Weekly update at -0.8C / Triple-dip La Niña for Winter 2022-23 / Neutral after Febuary 2023

#12712 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 12:58 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC weekly update at -0.8C / Same as last week

#12713 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2022 1:19 pm

No change from last weeks update from CPC as Niño 3.4 remains at -0.8C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12714 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:40 pm

Jeez, this La Nina is getting stronger again!? :eek:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1585272536559865856


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12715 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 29, 2022 9:45 am

Nino 3.4 is below -1°C, coldest since September. :double:

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https://s4.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12716 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:27 pm

-1C isn’t terribly strong in itself. This Niña is way more impressive for its prolonged atmospheric effects while the 3.4 SSTs have been in the -.8 to-1.1 range most of the last 13 months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12717 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:47 pm

Yeah if anything things are trending are towards Neutral in regards to the atmosphere. Only issue is .. yet to see any El Nino signals in the long range models.

The CFS has backed off a significant/long late year WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12718 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:35 am

Kingarabian wrote:Yeah if anything things are trending are towards Neutral in regards to the atmosphere. Only issue is .. yet to see any El Nino signals in the long range models.

The CFS has backed off a significant/long late year WWB.


Yeah, to be honest, while I myself (as well as many others here) are on the belief that 2023 may be an El Nino year simply because it's been so long since the last true El Nino year, it also would not surprise me to see a neutral year for 2023 (leaning towards warm neutral, although I could very well muck up this forecast, and we enter a cool neutral period lol). What would be genuinely shocking imho is if we get a fourth year La Nina, although I still think that if it's not El Nino, it's probably a good bet to bank on neutral conditions.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 10/31/22= Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C

#12719 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:05 am

Niño 3.4 is more cold on this CPC weekly update.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12720 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:15 pm

I think we see El Nino conditions return next summer or fall. I would be surprised if it holds off longer than that. Most long range models are showing that too.
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