ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C
Not necessarily a bad or good thing for El Nino as there's still time, but the CFS has pushed back a large dateline WWB to late May.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C
If that WWB keeps getting pushed back in time that could mean we may not even get an el nino at all this fall
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- SFLcane
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Re: ENSO=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 3 at +0.4C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C
Kingarabian wrote:Not necessarily a bad or good thing for El Nino as there's still time, but the CFS has pushed back a large dateline WWB to late May.
Hasn't really changed from my point of view.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
What will happen next is the big question.
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772695445897221
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772697735995398
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772695445897221
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772697735995398
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:What will happen next is the big question.
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772695445897221
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1635772697735995398
What is a DKW? I saw that on the first twitter post.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
zzzh wrote::uarrow: Downwelling Kelvin Wave.
Thanks for that!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
My goodness, this is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
2 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
Iceresistance wrote:My goodness, this is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sstanim.gif
It's two things coming together, the SST gradient climatologically weakens this time of year and the eastern equatorial Pacific becomes relatively warm. The anomalous warming we've seen adds onto that to make it look even more extreme
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
Seeing the latest MJO forecasts, the strong MJO wave will enter the circle of death as it goes to the Indian Ocean. I've learned over the past 3 years that La Nina favors strong MJO in the Indian Ocean. If the MJO actually dies in IO, I think we can now say that La Nina has already lost its grip, atmospherically.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- JetFuel_SE
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Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:Seeing the latest MJO forecasts, the strong MJO wave will enter the circle of death as it goes to the Indian Ocean. I've learned over the past 3 years that La Nina favors strong MJO in the Indian Ocean. If the MJO actually dies in IO, I think we can now say that La Nina has already lost its grip, atmospherically.
QBO being westerly may effect the MJO strength prediction in the indo and also in the maritime. Usually IN a easterly QBO phase MJO is stronger and more reliable to predict
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032653 For example, the seasonal average amplitude of the tropical top-of-atmosphere longwave radiative response to the MJO is approximately doubled during easterly QBO phases relative to westerly QBO phases during boreal winter (Son et al., 2017). This increase in boreal winter MJO activity during easterly QBO phases is possibly caused by either a greater number and increased longevity of MJO events (Zhang & Zhang, 2018) or stronger MJO events with greater duration (Hendon & Abhik, 2018). Easterly QBO phases favor a more active MJO over the Maritime Continent than westerly QBO phases
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD028171 MJO activities between the two QBO phases is possible perhaps only when potential roles of upper-tropospheric or even stratospheric processes are fully considered in MJO theories.
The observed QBO-MJO connection may also have substantial implications to sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction. The MJO and QBO are two potential sources of S2S predictability. The degree to which their connection would affect overall S2S predictability and prediction skill is an extremely important issue to advance S2S prediction. Increased MJO prediction skill in QBOE in an operational model (Marshall et al., 2017) is very encouraging. It would be interesting to explore whether the overall S2S prediction skill is higher in QBOE than QBOW and if so, to what degree it is related to the MJO
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In my region down under over the last 2 months you can really notice a difference now with heat. Last summer was very coolish in the eastern states nina
atmosphere QLD,NSW,VIC. Sure don't feel like any nina atmosphere now down under in our eastern states.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
30 day SOI has finally flipped negative. Still a long way to go and its 50/50 March averages out as a negative with the MJO entering the IO next week.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
As always, the Tyler discussions are very good.
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637474395940614152
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637482193265074177
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637550186883842050
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637474395940614152
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637482193265074177
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1637550186883842050
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Re: ENSO Updates
This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.
Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.
Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.
https://i.imgur.com/yP6y7qc.gif
https://i.imgur.com/uH79ejA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/MNKqaa9.gif
Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.
When will the next driver to El Niño come?
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Ntxw wrote:This is pretty promising for prospect of a Nino given we are only in March.
https://i.imgur.com/yP6y7qc.gif
https://i.imgur.com/uH79ejA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/MNKqaa9.gif
Will experience a bit of slowdown but doesn't really take a step backwards. The next round should progress further.
When will the next driver to El Niño come?
April, especially later into April. Long term guidance, regardless of what the MJO is doing, suggestive rising motion returns to the Pacific and sinking motion over the MC. Currents in the eq Pacific are quite favorable.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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