ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12881 Postby NotSparta » Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:14 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:So I was just wondering this recently given the ENSO state going from La Nina to neutral (with many models at this point calling for El Nino later this year), but why did so many models bust with the El Nino prediction in 2017? Quite interestingly, the ENSO configuration in the EPAC as of now resembles 2017 in the sense that there are the anomalously warm 1-2 region and cool 3-4 region.


The case for El Nino was weak in 2017. Not a whole lot of heat below the surface and the atmosphere wasn't cooperating much. But there was surface warmth and a lot of model support
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12882 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Feb 19, 2023 12:10 am

Image

Idk how much of this is raw westerlies but this will help the sub-surface.

Image

MJO actually lingering in the Pacific is a change from the last 3 years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12883 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/783987504071573517/1076726363798655047/IMG_4581.gif

Idk how much of this is raw westerlies but this will help the sub-surface.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/783987504071573517/1075317325303119942/GEFS_BC.png

MJO actually lingering in the Pacific is a change from the last 3 years.



2021 it did the same.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12884 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:18 am

March will be a very important month to see where ENSO is going.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1627673159024656386


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12885 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/783987504071573517/1076726363798655047/IMG_4581.gif

Idk how much of this is raw westerlies but this will help the sub-surface.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/783987504071573517/1075317325303119942/GEFS_BC.png

MJO actually lingering in the Pacific is a change from the last 3 years.



2021 it did the same.


You meant the one in late 2021? That one also made me think we're seeing Niño again. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12886 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:06 pm

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1627988437843288064




The end is near for the La Nina!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12887 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:33 pm

2017 in focus.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1628073735499526150


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12888 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:March will be a very important month to see where ENSO is going.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1627673159024656386

These anomalies would be a nice break from these DL easterlies but still too weak. CFS continues to push for a strong DL WWB sometime in May.

But yeah. A WWB in the next 2 months is needed.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12889 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:12 pm

Good thread.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1628170103744512002




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1628170107565539328




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1628170111311052800




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1628170114314149888




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1628170116490993664


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12890 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:06 am

Nino 1+2 is around +.7°C

Nino 3 is near ±0°C

Ninos 3.4 and 4 are still below -.5°C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12891 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:48 pm

Here comes the WWB.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1628859051466686464


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12892 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:17 pm

I disagree, and would not call that a robust WWB. It's simply a slowing of the trades. An El Nino triggering WWB is still needed (For El Nino to occur this summer) and is possible between March 20-April 10, when the next MJO pulse comes by.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12893 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:19 pm

^tbf he is talking about the demise of La Niña. Whether it's going to the El Niño or Neutral route has yet to be seen, but for now I think it's getting clear that the current La Niña is losing its grip.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12894 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:20 pm

dexterlabio wrote:^tbf he is talking about the demise of La Niña. Whether it's going to the El Niño or Neutral route has yet to be seen, but for now I think it's getting clear that the current La Niña is losing its grip.

It's at its weakest for sure. I'll believe the atmosphere La Nina state is over once the SOI flips negative. If La Nina is over, we should see the 90 day close to zero around the end of April, and the 30 day should be negative by the end of March.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12895 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I disagree, and would not call that a robust WWB. It's simply a slowing of the trades. An El Nino triggering WWB is still needed (For El Nino to occur this summer) and is possible between March 20-April 10, when the next MJO pulse comes by.


Image

Image

Climatologically trades in the WPAC this time of year aren’t that strong to begin with so the looming WWB is enough for a limited reversal next week (as you can see by the above two graphics). While I don’t have a graphic of mean zonal winds that go out to March, the graphic in the Klotzbach tweet suggests 4 m/s westerly anomalies the first week of March, which should be enough for a true WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12896 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:25 am

Webbs nuggets are important to follow.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1629121591312531456




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1629123482390007811


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12897 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:45 am



GFS has the MJO slower and strong in phase 7 and 8 during March. That would be the beginning of El Nino. Need to watch if the rest of the models do the same
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12898 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:47 am

Kingarabian wrote:


GFS has the MJO slower and strong in phase 7 and 8 during March. That would be the beginning of El Nino. Need to watch if the rest of the models do the same


Also EPS.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1629158922908237824


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12899 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:14 pm

BEGONE!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1629499206858850304


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12900 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:26 pm

Latest NCEP guidance showing a strong WPAC->CPAC MJO. Would almost certainly trigger El Nino.

Euro, JMA, and Canadian show it only stronger in the EPAC. This solution would still keep neutral odds higher than El Nino, especially if there isnt MJO support in April.
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