ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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AlanSnyder35
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13281 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Thu May 18, 2023 8:20 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13282 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu May 18, 2023 4:41 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13283 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 18, 2023 10:25 pm


Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13284 Postby dexterlabio » Thu May 18, 2023 10:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.


If I remember correctly this is one of 2014's problems
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13285 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 19, 2023 6:48 am

Today's SOI rose only barely/much less than I thought with it still down at -9.48. That now tells me that the -SOI streak is safe to continue for a good number more days with it now at 11 days. It should end up at 17+ days as it looks now.

 Due to the combo of way above normal Darwin and significantly below normal Tahiti SLP, the GFS and Euro are suggesting a sub -50 SOI is quite possible on May 23rd. That would mean the lowest daily SOI since at least the -52 of 2/17/2017 and possibly the lowest since the -58 of 2/6/2010! It would also mean the lowest daily May SOI since 1997.

 May MTD is now at -8.3. With this very strong -SOI period coming next week, a sub -10 May of 2023 is now just about a certainty. That is a very strong indicator for an oncoming El Niño of an unknown magnitude.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13286 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 19, 2023 7:23 am

Per ONI I still favor a strong fall/winter peak but with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) on the low side and super (+2.0+) on the high side. That puts me +1.6 to +1.9 for most likely.

But per RONI assuming a -0.4 adjustment due to very warm overall tropical SSTAs, anywhere from a high end weak (+0.9) to low end super (near +2.0) is reasonably possible for the fall/winter peak with +1.2 to +1.5 for most likely.

Redifining Nino indices in a warming climate (relates to RONI):

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... abe9ed/pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13287 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 19, 2023 11:51 am

Phil with the arrow on one line. The others are less warm.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1659602045559767043


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Re: ENSO Updates

#13288 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Fri May 19, 2023 6:03 pm

Quite the mixed signals we got here. Will the El Niño become strong or will this be something similar to 2014 with the fast start but struggling to strengthen over the summer/fall? At least we can be confident that 2023 isn't going to be -ENSO. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13289 Postby LemieT » Fri May 19, 2023 7:42 pm

Speaking with some friends of mine last year, one of them suggested that the atmosphere needed a reset after 3 Ninas back to back...
One thing is for certain, there is a lot of uncertainty. Everyone is having to dig deep into their knowledge base and stretch themselves with what's in front of us. 2023 will propel the Met/WX community's collective understanding in many ways...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13290 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 20, 2023 2:52 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.


If I remember correctly this is one of 2014's problems

Even 2014 and 2009 are begining to become less as analogs.

2014 had a warmer subsurface so far and a more El Nino conducive 850 zonal wind profile.

2009 had a similar wind profile but a cooler subsurface so far.

Both had signed no competes with the Atlantic -- Atlantic was coolor. Much different than what we're seeing in 2023.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13291 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2023 3:18 pm

Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13292 Postby LarryWx » Sun May 21, 2023 3:26 pm

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13293 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 9:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?


Who answers this very important question? :sadly:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13294 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 21, 2023 9:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

Typhoon Mawar itself won't help warm ENSO but it is a by-product of a strong WWB. Strong WWB's usually help create downwelling KW's that transfer warmth through the subsurface from the WPAC to the EPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13295 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 9:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

Typhoon Mawar itself won't help warm ENSO but it is a by-product of a strong WWB. Strong WWB's usually help create downwelling KW's that transfer warmth through the subsurface from the WPAC to the EPAC.


Thank you for the answer. Let's see what occurs in the next few weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13296 Postby LarryWx » Mon May 22, 2023 8:41 am

The volatile Nino 1+2 region weekly SST anomaly just released (for last week) dropped pretty sharply from +2.4 to +1.7, the coolest in two months. The other regions changed little or none.

The daily SOI plunged to -43. It will be even lower tomorrow, which should be the low point of the month.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13297 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 22, 2023 8:59 am

Here is the link to the weekly CPC update of 5/22/23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13298 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 22, 2023 9:57 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13299 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 22, 2023 10:05 am

:uarrow: That's NCEPs bias again. All the other models keep it moving.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13300 Postby dexterlabio » Mon May 22, 2023 10:53 am

I wonder what the PDO reading will be for the month of May.
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