ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12201 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:29 pm

November pdo came in at -2.52. This is the coolest the pdo has been since 1961.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12202 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:37 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:November pdo came in at -2.52. This is the coolest the pdo has been since 1961.


Looking back at the ENSO year database, 1962 was a cool neutral year. I know historical comparisons do not tell the story of future ENSO states/years, but something tells me that next year is going to likely be some kind of neutral, and the warming won't be significant and rapid enough for an El Nino to come back
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12203 Postby Hammy » Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:07 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:November pdo came in at -2.52. This is the coolest the pdo has been since 1961.


What impact on Southeastern winter could this have?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12204 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:41 pm

Hammy wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:November pdo came in at -2.52. This is the coolest the pdo has been since 1961.


What impact on Southeastern winter could this have?


IIRC -PDO leads to drier/warmer Southeastern United States.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12205 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:29 pm

I should stop abandoning this place, lol
Wondering if the Nina will peak soon...


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1473352691451633669




With that being said I'm not sure how plausible a Nino would be given the -PDO as previously mentioned. You'd think it would serve to handicap any stronger +ENSO event. Perhaps a weaker one could occur though (warm-neutral/weak El Nino). Obviously too early to speculate any of that really, wait for the Spring Predictability Barrier to start making more definitive claims.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12206 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:35 pm

SOI tanked today but will it be a trend down or is a one day thing?

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12207 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:01 am

:uarrow: SOI is really noisy and probably an outdated ENSO metric at this point.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12208 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:45 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12209 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:58 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:I should stop abandoning this place, lol
Wondering if the Nina will peak soon...


https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1473352691451633669

With that being said I'm not sure how plausible a Nino would be given the -PDO as previously mentioned. You'd think it would serve to handicap any stronger +ENSO event. Perhaps a weaker one could occur though (warm-neutral/weak El Nino). Obviously too early to speculate any of that really, wait for the Spring Predictability Barrier to start making more definitive claims.


 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1473679683774558223




After looking at recent tweets such as these, the westerly wind burst events that are already starting, and the massive downwelling Kelvin Wave already brewing in the western Pacific.....I smell an oncoming El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12210 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:05 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: SOI is really noisy and probably an outdated ENSO metric at this point.


Only if you look at the daily. 30 day average is very good for MJO tracking. 90 day cannot be beat for ENSO. SOI is still the most reliable ENSO tool to date.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12211 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:12 pm

La Nina is peaking for sure. It reaching below -1.0C was always a stretch considering the subsurface anomalies. But we do need more PDO, PMM and even SOI support starting in late January through February for there to be any shot of +ENSO in the summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12212 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:La Nina is peaking for sure. It reaching below -1.0C was always a stretch considering the subsurface anomalies. But we do need more PDO, PMM and even SOI support starting in late January through February for there to be any shot of +ENSO in the summer.


huh? Subsurface is and has been colder than last year, with another upwelling kelvin wave pushing east now. In fact the entire thermocline is much cooler than last year at this time
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12213 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:41 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:La Nina is peaking for sure. It reaching below -1.0C was always a stretch considering the subsurface anomalies. But we do need more PDO, PMM and even SOI support starting in late January through February for there to be any shot of +ENSO in the summer.


huh? Subsurface is and has been colder than last year, with another upwelling kelvin wave pushing east now. In fact the entire thermocline is much cooler than last year at this time

Depending on the chart you're looking at. There's a lot of offline buoy sensors that are playing a role in GODAS/PENTAD overcooking those cooler than normal anomalies.

If you look at La Nina's that were actually moderate strength, the TAO buoy subsurface profiles were cooler than what is currently present and what was observed. -5C at the subsurface shouldve resulted in ateast -1.5C readings over Nino 3.4 which never occurred.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12214 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: SOI is really noisy and probably an outdated ENSO metric at this point.


Only if you look at the daily. 30 day average is very good for MJO tracking. 90 day cannot be beat for ENSO. SOI is still the most reliable ENSO tool to date.


Equatorial SOI - the pressure difference Indonesia and the 80-130W at the equator is better as the SOI is also influenced by the IOD and the SPMM.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12215 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:37 am

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Obviously I know this is not set in stone, but in order for an El Nino to happen next winter wouldn't there have to be a continuously rising pool of warm water throughout the mid to later parts of next year? It looks like Cfv2 sees a warmup but with this warmup not being quite strong and persistent enough to trigger an El Nino. As of now I personally see a very low chance of a La Nina, a moderate chance of El Nino, but a high chance of neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12216 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Dec 25, 2021 2:03 am

With the current -TNH/PNA and ridging over the Aleutian Islands, we’re likely to remain near record -PDO territory for the foreseeable future. Given that plus the fact that a La Niña is of moderate intensity already exists, and the presence of the WAM that halts serious ENSO movement during the boreal summer, I’m almost comfortable completely ruling out a Niño at this point for 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12217 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Dec 25, 2021 2:49 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:I should stop abandoning this place, lol
Wondering if the Nina will peak soon...


https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1473352691451633669

With that being said I'm not sure how plausible a Nino would be given the -PDO as previously mentioned. You'd think it would serve to handicap any stronger +ENSO event. Perhaps a weaker one could occur though (warm-neutral/weak El Nino). Obviously too early to speculate any of that really, wait for the Spring Predictability Barrier to start making more definitive claims.


https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1473679683774558223

After looking at recent tweets such as these, the westerly wind burst events that are already starting, and the massive downwelling Kelvin Wave already brewing in the western Pacific.....I smell an oncoming El Nino.


The more fluid MJO propagation will definitely serve to chip away at the Niña and warm the ENSO regions, but again, we'll have to watch how the NEPac evolves with the PDO (and PMM to an extent). It's a factor we really haven't had to consider over the past few years regardless of the ENSO state (we've were in a consistently +PDO regime from 2014-2019 hence why the EPAC had such an amazing active streak within those years). It's definitely something to keep an eye on, especially if it maintains itself by the time the WAM/ASW comes swooping in by the summer to complicate things. The two most recent Niño events (2018-19 and 2019-20) were relatively weak in nature and late-developing, and part of the reason as to why is the current dominant -VP regime over Africa slowing down the process until late fall/winter and thus limiting the window for it to really bloom.

With that being said, given prior history with second year Niñas I honestly would lean towards a positive-biased ENSO state later on in 2022. It's just that it's hard to gauge how strong it will become thanks to Africa's dominance over the global Walker Circulation since 2017 or so, but as stated previously, that's something that really cannot be determined until the SPB anyway.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12218 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:24 pm

Let's wait until the Spring Barrier is over and then we will see where the ENSO state will be at that point.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12219 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:54 pm

With ENSO being self terminate (the more it asserts, the more it loads up fuel the other way) I'd say the odds in the coming years to an El Nino will increase. It may not happen in 2022 especially with the strong -PDO but perhaps we could see a Nino head-fake like 2012. The longer the MJO stalls around the 6-8 will eventually help push the WPAC warm pool east slowly. But then of course it's dependent also if WWBs happen.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12220 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Dec 28, 2021 8:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:With ENSO being self terminate (the more it asserts, the more it loads up fuel the other way) I'd say the odds in the coming years to an El Nino will increase. It may not happen in 2022 especially with the strong -PDO but perhaps we could see a Nino head-fake like 2012. The longer the MJO stalls around the 6-8 will eventually help push the WPAC warm pool east slowly. But then of course it's dependent also if WWBs happen.


If 2022 is not an El Nino year but rather neutral, I would be inclined to say that 2023 will be an El Nino year. But again, this is just based on logical trend rather than actuality. Anyhow, we can worry about 2023 in a future thread, so focusing on 2022, assuming the Atlantic stays relatively warm and no weird 2013-like event occurs, I would not be surprised if we again end up with a seventh above average hurricane season. The WAM's strength will also be something worth watching given that seems to impact El Nino capability as well.
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