ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 8/29/22 Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to 0.9C

#12681 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:20 am

Past 2 weeks, looked like the warm pool was pushing east again. Just because there were some brief weak westerly anomalies near the dateline.
Image


But big time dateline trade burst on the GFS coming up to continue this La Nina into the winter.
Image

If the atmosphere were to flip to El Nino, we should see the SOI beginning to drop in negative territory by late September and October. To kickstart El Nino, we need to see westerly anomalies over the MC by November/December. That'll help open the door for a dateline WWB in January/February. The ocean has been reacting very well to any periods with relaxed trades, almost immediately building and sending warm subsurface to the east.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 8/29/22 Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.9C

#12682 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:33 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12683 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:27 pm

5 September weekly:
Nino 4: -1.1C
Nino 3.4: -0.8C
Nino 3: -0.4C
Nino 1+2: -0.4C

JJA trimonthly: -0.8C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12684 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:42 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12685 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Sep 11, 2022 1:31 pm

????? July PDO was -2.86..... the 5th coolest monthly ever observed and the coolest since the 50s
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12686 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2022 9:54 am

CPC Weekly update has La NIña down to -1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12687 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:45 am

August PDO came in at -1.92.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12688 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:44 pm

Weekly Niño 3.4 came in at -0.9ºC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12689 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:07 pm

ENSO picture for 2023 remains murky.

There's signs the PDO and PMM are attempting to warm. The WPAC warm pool has been replenished. But the SOI remains very positive and strong trade burst on the way.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12690 Postby Zonacane » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:30 am

We are probably going to end up with a very weird neutral year in 2023
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12691 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:58 am

The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.

If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12692 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:04 am

Kingarabian wrote:The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.

If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.


The daily SOI has jumped to +35, the La Nina is not going away anytime soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12693 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:31 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The way things look right now it's leaning towards +ENSO. If the SOI can somehow get to negative territory, it'll be for sure.

If the SOI remains this elevated through January then we're looking at another -ENSO/La Nina year.


The daily SOI has jumped to +35, the La Nina is not going away anytime soon.


It won't (potentially) drop till like November at the earliest. And I don't mean we need to see -8 on the 30 day, just something near +5 to slow the trades down.

A full SOI tank if there would be one, will probably occur around February.

That being said, there ATLEAST needs to be a weak WWB around January time for an ENSO flip.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12694 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:30 pm

It's still very early and we have yet to get through 2022, but I personally wouldn't be surprised if the ENSO regions attempt to warm but just fall short of reaching bona fide Nino levels, making us end up having warm neutral conditions and yet another above average (though not crazy above average, so something like 15/6/3) Atlantic season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12695 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm

The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG! :eek:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12696 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG! :eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Also note the "EPAC warm pool" offshore Mexico just north of Nino 1+2 is basically gone. I know some people believed earlier in the season that it was causing the atmosphere to be El Nino-like (I disagree and don't think it was true).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12697 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:39 am

Extremely strong trade burst underway.

Image

CFS shows relentless easterlies across the entire Pacific basin through October.

Image

IMHO, this La Nina might become Strong to Super
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12698 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:13 am

Euro has a WPAC MJO with good amplitude. If it verifies, a WPAC WWB could be on the way. Will take a series of these events to flip ENSO, but it would be a head start.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12699 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:27 am

Iceresistance wrote:The La Niña is not going away anytime soon, and it's STRONG! :eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1575847683822178306?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


While I am not banking on it as there are signs that there will be an ENSO flip, it would be genuinely crazy to see a fourth year Nina in 2023.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12700 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:22 pm

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