ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Iceresistance]

The La Niña may have survived the Spring Barrier period against all odds, we could go into a rare 3rd year La Niña.

[Yellow Evan]

45% chance of neutral is generous.

[cycloneye]

45% chance of neutral is generous.

Why generous?

[Kingarabian]

45% chance of neutral is generous.

Why generous?

Should be 10% chance for neutral or El Nino. Nothing has changed from the winter months to suggest a shift away from La Nina. Nino regions are near moderate Nina levels. Subsurface is very cool. The MJO is entering its suppressed phase over the Pacific so trades will be favored for the next 30 days.

[skyline385]

45% chance of neutral is generous.

Why generous?

Should be 10% chance for neutral or El Nino. Nothing has changed from the winter months to suggest a shift away from La Nina. Nino regions are near moderate Nina levels. Subsurface is very cool. The MJO is entering its suppressed phase over the Pacific so trades will be favored for the next 30 days.

My knowledge on ENSO is pretty limited but surely there are other factors at play here which the models are seeing and hence it's at 45%.

[Yellow Evan]

Why generous?

Should be 10% chance for neutral or El Nino. Nothing has changed from the winter months to suggest a shift away from La Nina. Nino regions are near moderate Nina levels. Subsurface is very cool. The MJO is entering its suppressed phase over the Pacific so trades will be favored for the next 30 days.

My knowledge on ENSO is pretty limited but surely there are other factors at play here which the models are seeing and hence it's at 45%.

Dynamical models have no credibility on ENSO whatsoever historically speaking. I think CPC likes to stick to natural statistical probabilities, which our knowledge of ENSO has advanced past to where it's relevant at least in my opinion.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Should be 10% chance for neutral or El Nino. Nothing has changed from the winter months to suggest a shift away from La Nina. Nino regions are near moderate Nina levels. Subsurface is very cool. The MJO is entering its suppressed phase over the Pacific so trades will be favored for the next 30 days.

My knowledge on ENSO is pretty limited but surely there are other factors at play here which the models are seeing and hence it's at 45%.

Dynamical models have no credibility on ENSO whatsoever historically speaking. I think CPC likes to stick to natural statistical probabilities, which our knowledge of ENSO has advanced past to where it's relevant at least in my opinion.

While I agree that La Niña is the most likely occurrence by around 1 standard deviation, to say that La Niña has an 80% + chance to maintain itself is quite bullish

[Kingarabian]

Numbers and probabilities are good in the late fall and early winter months. Right now it's clear as day what's going to happen. The La Nina is present... it didn't go anywhere. There's subsurface and atmospheric support to continue La Nina. It's super hard to get a La Nina to turn cool/warm neutral during ASO because JJA favors enhanced trades per climo. So it's almost a guarantee La Nina will prevail.

[weeniepatrol]

Comically, -PDO is restrengthening. Significant warming east of Japan and cooling off the western coast of north America have been observed in recent months.

[Kingarabian]

Comically, -PDO is restrengthening. Significant warming east of Japan and cooling off the western coast of north America have been observed in recent months.

https://imgur.com/2yhRfp0

South east Pacific also continues to be stubbornly cool. -SPMM not budging.

[weeniepatrol]

For those who care about the SOI (it's quite noisy + spring barrier so I'm only posting this for entertainment value), all eleven of the last eleven days had values over +19.5. 90-day average now sits at +11.7

IF CFS verifies, there may non-stop easterly anomalies until next year. Africa will be waking up soon and the summer trades are going to return.

[Kingarabian]

For those who care about the SOI (it's quite noisy + spring barrier so I'm only posting this for entertainment value), all eleven of the last eleven days had values over +19.5. 90-day average now sits at +11.7

IF CFS verifies, there may non-stop easterly anomalies until next year. Africa will be waking up soon and the summer trades are going to return.

https://i.imgur.com/3mWmVDr.png

We should always factor the SOI. The 30 day for MJO and 90 day values for ENSO generally cannot be beat. I look at the SOI on a regular basis as those daily values eventually make up the monthly average. But this year we don't need it to know what's going to happen.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515474041980731395

[Kingarabian]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.


Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.




However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

[weeniepatrol]

We will absolutely be due for an El Nino in 2023. Once this La Nina finally terminates we might perhaps even see the first moderate-to-strong El Nino since 2015. Anything is possible, of course, but this specific outcome wouldn't surprise me

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point if we do not get some sort of +ENSO state or an El Niño by 2023, then I would be genuinely shocked.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

Niño prospects are generally elevated in the wake of a third year Niña so it's definitely not unreasonable to anticipate the formation of one next year.

[Category5Kaiju]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

Niño prospects are generally elevated in the wake of a third year Niña so it's definitely not unreasonable to anticipate the formation of one next year.

Curious to ask, but how did 2001 end up as a -ENSO state year despite following three La Nina years?

[NotSparta]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

Niño prospects are generally elevated in the wake of a third year Niña so it's definitely not unreasonable to anticipate the formation of one next year.

Curious to ask, but how did 2001 end up as a -ENSO state year despite following three La Nina years?

That Niña base state was unstoppable in the wake of the 1997 Niño. Even then, during 2001 the warm pool made enough progress that it set up for a decent El Niño in 2002

[aspen]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

How much would a WPac warm pool impact activity over there this year?