ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

How much would a WPac warm pool impact activity over there this year?

Way too far south to have an effect.

[cycloneye]

Interesting stats.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516085957107191811

[Yellow Evan]

Biggest thing the new WPAC DKW will do is keep us at weak La Niña stage for a while and prevent the Niña from getting too much stronger. Too soon to say on whether we finally could get a Nino next year really but how strong this Niña gets in the late fall and winter will be key because if it goes back to cool neutral by fall like 1956, not that hard for Nino to emerge before Africa wakes up next year (ala 1957). Would also have to watch for +PDO development as those tend to appear after several years of Niña. Also keep an eye on the IOD as a -IOD can foretell a Nino and also get Africa to shut up in the meantime.

[Kingarabian]

This WPAC warm pool has been really impressive. Won't let off the gas.
https://i.imgur.com/x3gLs7b.gif

Another round of strong trades will stop it again from reaching the EPAC. That will do it for any spring time ENSO warming. Hard to get WPAC downwelling -> EPAC-ENSO warming activity during the summer months.
https://i.imgur.com/yTnfr7g.png



However IF this WPAC warm pool persists and IF we can see some SE Pacific warming by the fall we can call for an El Nino in 2023 with much higher confidence.

How much would a WPac warm pool impact activity over there this year?

Way too far south to have an effect.

Yeah it'll have basically no effect for the next 5-6 months.

In regards to effects in the WPAC: The warm pool affects the EPAC more than the WPAC because it's the super warm WPAC waters that are transferred east to the EPAC. Not the other way around. However El Nino helps WPAC activity so indirectly this warm pool can help the WPAC to have an active typhoon season.

[weeniepatrol]

even CPC is pretty much explicitly saying it..

[DorkyMcDorkface]

even CPC is pretty much explicitly saying it..

https://i.imgur.com/ptPs3Du.png

Ya I don't think there's any doubt that we're triple dipping this year, it's pretty much academic at this point. Only question remains strength, which could also factor into where we will stand next year regarding a potential transition to +ENSO.

[Iceresistance]

even CPC is pretty much explicitly saying it..

https://i.imgur.com/ptPs3Du.png

Ya I don't think there's any doubt that we're triple dipping this year, it's pretty much academic at this point. Only question remains strength, which could also factor into where we will stand next year regarding a potential transition to +ENSO.

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

[Category5Kaiju]

even CPC is pretty much explicitly saying it..

https://i.imgur.com/ptPs3Du.png

Ya I don't think there's any doubt that we're triple dipping this year, it's pretty much academic at this point. Only question remains strength, which could also factor into where we will stand next year regarding a potential transition to +ENSO.

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

[Iceresistance]

Ya I don't think there's any doubt that we're triple dipping this year, it's pretty much academic at this point. Only question remains strength, which could also factor into where we will stand next year regarding a potential transition to +ENSO.

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

It could turn into a Modoki & ruin all of that.

Either way, List 3 is almost always active for some reason since 1999.

[Teban54]

Ya I don't think there's any doubt that we're triple dipping this year, it's pretty much academic at this point. Only question remains strength, which could also factor into where we will stand next year regarding a potential transition to +ENSO.

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

2018 was an El Nino year and still ended up above average in the Atlantic... Never rule out that possibility unless we get a Super Nino

[Category5Kaiju]

The most Rick Rollish thing the Atlantic could do imho is if we get a decent El Nino in 2023....but it happens to be Modoki and causes the Atlantic to once again go ballistic. Then in 2024 we get a weak La Nina and then the Atlantic goes 2005 2.0.

Ok, ok, maybe I should really stop speculating...only time will tell what actually happens lol

Back to 2022 ENSO stuff.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

2018 was an El Nino year and still ended up above average in the Atlantic... Never rule out that possibility unless we get a Super Nino

WAM really bailed 2018 out. MDR was near record levels of below average during the early part of the season but the WAM was able to manifest itself strongly and it ended up warming the Tropical Atlantic quite a bit in addition to preventing El Niño development until after the season was over.

[skyline385]

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

2018 was an El Nino year and still ended up above average in the Atlantic... Never rule out that possibility unless we get a Super Nino

WAM really bailed 2018 out. MDR was near record levels of below average during the early part of the season but the WAM was able to manifest itself strongly and it ended up warming the Tropical Atlantic quite a bit in addition to preventing El Niño development until after the season was over.

This is going to be a dumb question but how does WAM heat up the MDR? Once the monsoon trough enters the MDR it's going to start convecting heat off the ocean. Air also naturally diverges off a low pressure system so how does that heat up the MDR? Is it because of the lack of trade winds?

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know either, this La Nina is very tough & stubborn, it would be absolutely wild to have a 4th Year La Nina. (And I really don't want to talk about a 5th Year La Nina since it's nearly impossible for that to happen)

An above average 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? No waaaayyyy

It could turn into a Modoki & ruin all of that.

Either way, List 3 is almost always active for some reason since 1999.

This arguably happened in 2019 already, lol.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

2018 was an El Nino year and still ended up above average in the Atlantic... Never rule out that possibility unless we get a Super Nino

WAM really bailed 2018 out. MDR was near record levels of below average during the early part of the season but the WAM was able to manifest itself strongly and it ended up warming the Tropical Atlantic quite a bit in addition to preventing El Niño development until after the season was over.

This is going to be a dumb question but how does WAM heat up the MDR? Once the monsoon trough enters the MDR it's going to start convecting heat off the ocean. And if the SST are too low for significant convection, then the thunderstorms in the trough should still cool the ocean waters until it dissipates? Is it because of the low pressure developed resulting in lack of trade winds?

Stronger WAM phases (such as the current one we are in) induce weak trades/anomalous westerlies in the MDR which results in warming.



Graphic taken from Maloney and Shaman of AMS Journal of Climate

[cycloneye]

Nothing new but is confirmation of what is going to happen on ASO.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516540367474110470

[skyline385]

Nothing new but is confirmation of what is going to happen on ASO.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516540367474110470

Some of those ENSO predictions are pretty crazy. I went and checked the ONI for seasons which had ENSO below -1.0 consistently from JAS to OND:

1988 - 2xCat 4, 1xCat 5 (Gilbert)
1998 - 1xCat 3, 1xCat 4 (Georges, almost Cat 5), 1xCat 5 (Mitch)
1999 - 5xCat 4
2010 - 1xCat 3, 4xCat 4

This season is not looking good especially when you look at Gilbert and Mitch.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing new but is confirmation of what is going to happen on ASO.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516540367474110470

Some of those ENSO predictions are pretty crazy. I went and checked the ONI for seasons which had ENSO below -1.0 consistently from JAS to OND:

1988 - 2xCat 4, 1xCat 5 (Gilbert)
1998 - 1xCat 3, 1xCat 4 (Georges, almost Cat 5), 1xCat 5 (Mitch)
1999 - 5xCat 4
2010 - 1xCat 3, 4xCat 4

This season is not looking good especially when you look at Gilbert and Mitch.

Yeah there's some biased models that either favor La Nina or El Nino. No in between. Realistically, the only ENSO models that should be considered is the CFS, ECMWF, UKMO, CMC and the BOM. The rest are unfortunately a waste of electricity.

[aspen]

Nothing new but is confirmation of what is going to happen on ASO.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516540367474110470

Some of those ENSO predictions are pretty crazy. I went and checked the ONI for seasons which had ENSO below -1.0 consistently from JAS to OND:

1988 - 2xCat 4, 1xCat 5 (Gilbert)
1998 - 1xCat 3, 1xCat 4 (Georges, almost Cat 5), 1xCat 5 (Mitch)
1999 - 5xCat 4
2010 - 1xCat 3, 4xCat 4

This season is not looking good especially when you look at Gilbert and Mitch.

1988, 1998, and 2010 are not good comparisons to 2022 because all three were La Ninas following El Niño events (1987, 1997, and 2009). 1999 was a double-dip Nina, and 2022 looks to be a triple-dip.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1517502126305554438




Just leaving this here as a reminder to what has already been stated, that although WPAC based WWB's generally don't do much to drastically change ENSO, they do warm the subsurface warm pool.