ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13381 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:49 pm

Anyone has the latest data of how is the PDO?
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13382 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the latest data of how is the PDO?

May came in at -2.36, up from -3.07 in April.
Here's the data. Scroll down to the very bottom to see this year.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13383 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:37 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the latest data of how is the PDO?

May came in at -2.36, up from -3.07 in April.
Here's the data. Scroll down to the very bottom to see this year.


Is in no hurry to turn positive.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13384 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 07, 2023 9:54 am

Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

CDAS has Nino 3.4 up to +0.9C, nearly moderate strength.

Though as appealing it looks, theres still something off with this event since the PDO and PMM are pretty negative. If they don't flip, downstream will probably affect the typical El Nino impacts.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13385 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 07, 2023 11:34 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

CDAS has Nino 3.4 up to +0.9C, nearly moderate strength.

Though as appealing it looks, theres still something off with this event since the PDO and PMM are pretty negative. If they don't flip, downstream will probably affect the typical El Nino impacts.


Yeah I don't think we will see a complete flip of the PDO anytime soon. ENSO modulates the PDO so as the Nino gets stronger there will be some weakening of the PDO. But as 1972 and 2009, the two can coincide. 2009 only had one month Sept with a positive reading.

Also if this ends up strong or low end Super then it's a learning curve again that WWBs are not always the absolute causation for +ENSO. It is needed for a certain type of ENSO but isn't the only way.

You can have a weak warm pool but with good WWBs create a bigger event. At the same time stronger warm pool but weakened trades do the same, momentum.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.8C / Niño 1+2 at +2.3C / Niño 3 at +1.1C / Niño 4 at +0.6C

#13386 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We look at a lot of stats but sometimes the eyeball test is what it needs. 2023 is on par with the more bigger, stronger events to date. One fact that is glaring, it's doing this without sig WWB in the CPAC regions. So it's an El Nino in a historically different way than the recent ones. It's already ahead some of the weaker events at their peaks. Pure physics of so much warmth holding, maybe due to the extended cold ENSO bottling it up for so long?

If not for the lack of WWBs, we'd be on the train of anomalies looking like a super event at the start.

https://i.imgur.com/uXfVtSH.png

https://i.imgur.com/bPt4yby.png

https://i.imgur.com/AL7CRdn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaPAQjj.png

https://i.imgur.com/pmBFNCt.png

https://i.imgur.com/3gsNrvZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/qtV7Q8j.png

https://i.imgur.com/I1v51YS.png

https://i.imgur.com/PYuAsR9.png

CDAS has Nino 3.4 up to +0.9C, nearly moderate strength.

Though as appealing it looks, theres still something off with this event since the PDO and PMM are pretty negative. If they don't flip, downstream will probably affect the typical El Nino impacts.


Yeah I don't think we will see a complete flip of the PDO anytime soon. ENSO modulates the PDO so as the Nino gets stronger there will be some weakening of the PDO. But as 1972 and 2009, the two can coincide. 2009 only had one month Sept with a positive reading.

Also if this ends up strong or low end Super then it's a learning curve again that WWBs are not always the absolute causation for +ENSO. It is needed for a certain type of ENSO but isn't the only way.

You can have a weak warm pool but with good WWBs create a bigger event. At the same time stronger warm pool but weakened trades do the same, momentum.


2023 will be the exception but Im skeptical that El Nino events can form without WWBs and simply just weaker than normal trades. 2019 had a strong
WPAC->EPAC warm pool that fizzled out and the CPC declined to call that year an El Nino. 2021 not as strong of a warm pool but still very potent and it too fizzled out.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update up today at 9 AM EDT / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13387 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2023 10:02 pm

A reminder folks that the CPC June update that may or not declare El Niño as oficial will be up on Thursday at 9 AM EDT.
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13388 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:02 am

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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13389 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:08 am

Not surprising given the rapid warming to almost +1C. SSTA looks like a building super event already, it's been the NHEM keeping check, but still now with weak likely out of the game. Even a slow warming rate, +1.5C seems likely, higher probably. 1972 might be a good analog.
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13390 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:27 am

Ntxw wrote:Not surprising given the rapid warming to almost +1C. SSTA looks like a building super event already, it's been the NHEM keeping check, but still now with weak likely out of the game. Even a slow warming rate, +1.5C seems likely, higher probably. 1972 might be a good analog.


This is mildly shocking to me based on CPC being slow to do this in recent seasons. I had predicted they wouldn't now and quite possibly not even in July. I was dead wrong!
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13391 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:31 am

LarryWx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Not surprising given the rapid warming to almost +1C. SSTA looks like a building super event already, it's been the NHEM keeping check, but still now with weak likely out of the game. Even a slow warming rate, +1.5C seems likely, higher probably. 1972 might be a good analog.


This is mildly shocking to me based on CPC being slow to do this in recent seasons. I had predicted they wouldn't now and quite possibly not even in July. I was dead wrong!


From their outlook the confidence seems to sit within the dynamic plume. Unbiased perspective, the spread isn't as wild as some recent seasons.
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13392 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:44 am

Doesn't an El Nino get declared once the 3-month average is at 0.5C or warmer? Just reaching +0.5C doesn't comprise an El Nino by definition.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June big update on the 8th / Will El Niño be officially declared?

#13393 Postby jconsor » Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the latest data of how is the PDO?


This site has daily charts of PDO (and a few others indices):
https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

Here's the latest chart:
Image
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13394 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:01 am

wxman57 wrote:Doesn't an El Nino get declared once the 3-month average is at 0.5C or warmer? Just reaching +0.5C doesn't comprise an El Nino by definition.


May came in at 0.4C. MAM came in at 0.1, but AMJ will likely be in the 0.3 to 0.4C range without March's cooler reading. This means MJJ will be 0.5C or greater, thus May and June period was the beginning of the El Nino. JJA will be the big jump since we are 0.8C+ on the weeklies.
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared

#13395 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:26 am

Here is the ENSO Blog that has more details about why they declared it in June.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared / Read the ENSO Blog

#13396 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:57 am

I used to be so bullish about El Niño lol but I was a bit surprised with the declaration. I thought we'd have to wait for another month, but it looks like the warming has gone faster than initially thought.

Just one random amateur observation, it feels like from our POV that it's been one of the wettest and hottest years concurrently. Usually, El Niños are just the latter. We've had a couple of flooding reports across my metro but also it's been dizzyingly hot.

The anomalies look rather unusual as well. On one hand, we're seeing near 1997-esque warming in the Niño 1+2 area but on the other, record temps in the Atlantic and pretty much globally. Would love to know what this means for global tropical cyclone activity and weather patterns. I reckon it could be like 2016 with activity spread out in the NHem but with a much more active WPac.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared / Read the ENSO Blog

#13397 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2023 12:46 pm

The next thing to watch in the July 13th release and in subsequent months are the % of Moderate and Strong El NIño at peak. In this June update they have 84% of Moderate El Niño and 56% for Strong El NIño as peak.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared / Read the ENSO Blog

#13398 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2023 1:20 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC: El Niño has been officially declared / Read the ENSO Blog

#13399 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 09, 2023 10:43 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13400 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:22 pm

Today's 12Z GFS makes 17 in a row with a W Car/GOM strong TC in week two. Whereas the record longest GFS streak for what ended up as a fake is still much longer than 17 runs and whereas the EPS is very quiet, I'm admittedly a bit more wary about the chance that this is real based on the higher level of June activity on average preceding +1.3+ ASO El Nino events and considering that ASO in 2023 is headed there:


No mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formation: ASO ONI

0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2


Mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formations: ASO ONI

0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 1.3, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.9, 2.2


 So, for ASO of 0.5 through 1.2, there were only 6 of these W basin mid to late June formations from 30 years (20% ratio). But things really start picking up in June when the subsequent ASO is 1.3+ with 8 formations from just 11 years (73% ratio).
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