ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12221 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:10 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12222 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:25 pm

The dateline WWB will be commencing in a week or so:
Image

Should see some dark colored (very warm) anomalies on the subsurface graphics soon. We'll need more WWB reinforcements during the late winter and early spring months though. I think this is the first long sustained dateline WWB in 2 years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12223 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:The dateline WWB will be commencing in a week or so:
https://i.imgur.com/xaEqYPX.png

Should see some dark colored (very warm) anomalies on the subsurface graphics soon. We'll need more WWB reinforcements during the late winter and early spring months though. I think this is the first long sustained dateline WWB in 2 years.


Wasn’t there an epic one around Surigae in April?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12224 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:35 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The dateline WWB will be commencing in a week or so:
https://i.imgur.com/xaEqYPX.png

Should see some dark colored (very warm) anomalies on the subsurface graphics soon. We'll need more WWB reinforcements during the late winter and early spring months though. I think this is the first long sustained dateline WWB in 2 years.


Wasn’t there an epic one around Surigae in April?

Wasn't a dateline WWB though. That WWB event's eastward progression was stunted and was mainly focused over 145E-150E. There's a big difference on ENSO impact between primarily WPAC WWB's and dateline/CPAC-EPAC WWB's (Walker circulation). I mean even if we have another dateline WWB, eventually there has to be a CPAC-EPAC WWB for a legit El Nino IMO.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12225 Postby aspen » Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:56 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:The dateline WWB will be commencing in a week or so:
https://i.imgur.com/xaEqYPX.png

Should see some dark colored (very warm) anomalies on the subsurface graphics soon. We'll need more WWB reinforcements during the late winter and early spring months though. I think this is the first long sustained dateline WWB in 2 years.


Wasn’t there an epic one around Surigae in April?

I remember there was a chance Surigae could’ve been a “Nina-buster” storm, but it ended up being too far north to impact ENSO progression. 2022 could be more vulnerable to a strong low-latitude WPac system, though.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12226 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:49 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12227 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:31 am

The latest cfv2 runs show something quite alarming: there has been a noticeable trend toward a cooler ENSO state since last year's end regarding later this year, but as of the latest, the cfv2 actually thinks that the Nino 3,4 region will continue to remain in La Nina territory until at least next summer. Something just tells me that we're not going to see an El Nino next year, and dare I say it, I personally have a slight inclination to believe that a third year La Nina, while less likely than neutral imho, cannot be completely ruled out yet.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12228 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:The latest cfv2 runs show something quite alarming: there has been a noticeable trend toward a cooler ENSO state since last year's end regarding later this year, but as of the latest, the cfv2 actually thinks that the Nino 3,4 region will continue to remain in La Nina territory until at least next summer. Something just tells me that we're not going to see an El Nino next year, and dare I say it, I personally have a slight inclination to believe that a third year La Nina, while less likely than neutral imho, cannot be completely ruled out yet.

Models are pretty useless until about May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12229 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:The latest cfv2 runs show something quite alarming: there has been a noticeable trend toward a cooler ENSO state since last year's end regarding later this year, but as of the latest, the cfv2 actually thinks that the Nino 3,4 region will continue to remain in La Nina territory until at least next summer. Something just tells me that we're not going to see an El Nino next year, and dare I say it, I personally have a slight inclination to believe that a third year La Nina, while less likely than neutral imho, cannot be completely ruled out yet.

Models are pretty useless until about May.


There is a chance we might not know the true ENSO state until September.

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Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12230 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:19 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:The latest cfv2 runs show something quite alarming: there has been a noticeable trend toward a cooler ENSO state since last year's end regarding later this year, but as of the latest, the cfv2 actually thinks that the Nino 3,4 region will continue to remain in La Nina territory until at least next summer. Something just tells me that we're not going to see an El Nino next year, and dare I say it, I personally have a slight inclination to believe that a third year La Nina, while less likely than neutral imho, cannot be completely ruled out yet.

Models are pretty useless until about May.


There is a chance we might not know the true ENSO state until September.

https://i.postimg.cc/MHCVhTxX/figure1.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/HWRwJS5H/figure1.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/jdfzyzQf/figure1.gif


Those graphs come from statistical models I believe and probably shouldn’t be taken literally. After the spring predictably barrier, we’ll have a good idea on whether the current downwelling Kelvin Wave is going to reach the surface, or whether the PDO will weaken (not too optimistic here given the record -PNA so far that is likely to return by the end of the month).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12231 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:32 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:The latest cfv2 runs show something quite alarming: there has been a noticeable trend toward a cooler ENSO state since last year's end regarding later this year, but as of the latest, the cfv2 actually thinks that the Nino 3,4 region will continue to remain in La Nina territory until at least next summer. Something just tells me that we're not going to see an El Nino next year, and dare I say it, I personally have a slight inclination to believe that a third year La Nina, while less likely than neutral imho, cannot be completely ruled out yet.

Eh, long-range climate models such as the CFS are rather unreliable until the Spring Predictability Barrier. I'd take it with a grain of salt for now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12232 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:39 pm

I'm just curious to know, but when was the most recent year when people were certain in January that that year would be a certain ENSO state (La Nina, neutral, or El Nino) as there was damning evidence pointing towards such, and that obviously turning out to be true? Was it 2016?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12233 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm just curious to know, but when was the most recent year when people were certain in January that that year would be a certain ENSO state (La Nina, neutral, or El Nino) as there was damning evidence pointing towards such, and that obviously turning out to be true? Was it 2016?


2020. If not 2015. There was some speculation of the Niño continuing on through 2016 for a bit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12234 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:36 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm just curious to know, but when was the most recent year when people were certain in January that that year would be a certain ENSO state (La Nina, neutral, or El Nino) as there was damning evidence pointing towards such, and that obviously turning out to be true? Was it 2016?


Definitely 2020. Already it was a second year +ENSO which strongly suggested La Niña, but at the same time there was strong +IOD and the equatorial Atlantic was on fire. Those both also telegraphed an oncoming La Niña. Even at this time of year in 2020 it wasn't too hard to tell what was coming. Definitely not the same this year. Very uncertain, best chance at an El Niño event since 2019
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12235 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:42 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm just curious to know, but when was the most recent year when people were certain in January that that year would be a certain ENSO state (La Nina, neutral, or El Nino) as there was damning evidence pointing towards such, and that obviously turning out to be true? Was it 2016?


It was probably 2015. There was some dispute about the ENSO state for the 2020-2021 winter; during February of 2020, the ECMWF had forecasted warm-neutral conditions that winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12236 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:10 pm


Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12237 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:03 pm

:uarrow: Look at the downwelling Kelvin Wave around 160E that should make its way westward.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12238 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:21 am

Kingarabian wrote:

Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png


Also FWIW:

Image

 https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777




Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12239 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:21 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png


Also FWIW:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552925317791814/930643597563396096/averageensoni.png

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777?s=21

Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.


The one question I do have with using the early 70s as an analog is, how closely would 1972 match 2022 in terms of factors such as AMO or WAM strength? Particularly the latter, since it seems like that being strong the past several years (and assuming it's strong again this year) has been really holding back any durable El Ninos from happening.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12240 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:38 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.

Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.

2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png


Also FWIW:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552925317791814/930643597563396096/averageensoni.png

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777?s=21

Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.


The one question I do have with using the early 70s as an analog is, how closely would 1972 match 2022 in terms of factors such as AMO or WAM strength? Particularly the latter, since it seems like that being strong the past several years (and assuming it's strong again this year) has been really holding back any durable El Ninos from happening.


1972 was right during an awful Sahel drought that in conjunction with the newly developed -AMO shut down the Atlantic for several years.

Image

1972 looks somewhat similar IOD and PDO wise but -AMM, +SPMM, and -AMO make the maps much different and make 1972 a much more likely Niño candidate. The +SPMM in turn makes the Niño more likely to be east based, and -AMM/-AMO provides less competition for rising motion to occur over a given region while preserving Earth’s energy balance.
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