ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: Important CPC March update tomorrow: (Feb had 60% of El Niño for ASO)

#12941 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:59 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NMME is all in for El NIño. Notable thing is the dry Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/0BNgNp3.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZDdH4so.png


One thing I would note about that precip graphic is how dry it is around Hawaii and that region of the Pacific. Wouldn't El Ninos help make that area more moist?


The anomalies in the graph reflect that of a southward displaced ITCZ due to the Nino.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12942 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:04 am

Breaking news: La NIña is over and this will be the final La NIña advisory. Very important 2 sentences= The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions are primarily because ENSO forecasts made during the spring are less accurate, and also the tropical Pacific atmosphere is still fairly consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored.

Image

Image



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12943 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:17 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12944 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:58 am

ENSO Blog

Is always very interesting to read what they are thinking about the updates and in this case, the March one that ends La Niña.

Excerpt from blog. The Peru factor is important.

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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12945 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:32 pm

I don't know but the warmth spreading from east to west sounds new to me. Isn't it that the warmth comes from the West/Central Pacific then it is transported to the east via WWBs? In some cases in the past the westerlies were not strong enough to transport the warmth all the way to the East Pacific that the resulting El Niño was weak or center-based (Modoki). But the warmth coming from the east?
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12946 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:20 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know but the warmth spreading from east to west sounds new to me. Isn't it that the warmth comes from the West/Central Pacific then it is transported to the east via WWBs? In some cases in the past the westerlies were not strong enough to transport the warmth all the way to the East Pacific that the resulting El Niño was weak or center-based (Modoki). But the warmth coming from the east?


They probably mean that the El Nino if it were to occur, would build in a more traditional manner. The source of the warm water has to come from the WPAC in the form of downwelling KWs. Those warm anomalies end up erupting in the far eastern Pacific. Trades would then carry those warm waters back west to warm the Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 regions. This would be different than 2017 when prolonged westerlies in the Nino 1.2 area created a coastal Nino that fooled the models.

So we still need to see more dateline WWBs to keep the train of warm anomalies from the WPAC to EPAC alive.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12947 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:21 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know but the warmth spreading from east to west sounds new to me. Isn't it that the warmth comes from the West/Central Pacific then it is transported to the east via WWBs? In some cases in the past the westerlies were not strong enough to transport the warmth all the way to the East Pacific that the resulting El Niño was weak or center-based (Modoki). But the warmth coming from the east?


Those WWBs cause downwelling kelvin waves, suppressing the thermocline and transporting anomalously warm water east at depth. These downwelling kws collide with the coast of South America and emerge, causing anomalous warmth to spread from east to west.

This is more of the mechanism for a "classic" El Nino versus the last El Nino of 2018 (CPac-flavored)
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12948 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:18 pm

The SOI is down to negative and that is important in terms of saying bye to La Niña and hello to warmer ENSO being warm Neutral or weak to moderate El Niño for ASO.

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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12949 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:20 pm

:uarrow: 30 day is still positive :P
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12950 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:42 pm

I have a question: does anybody know if 1969 was a Modoki El Niño or a traditional El Niño? That year has really fascinated me as a wx enthusiast considering how dead the EPAC was and how active the Atlantic was
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12951 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: 30 day is still positive :P


I was mentioning about the daily data. :D The 30 day is still positive but trending down.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12952 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question: does anybody know if 1969 was a Modoki El Niño or a traditional El Niño? That year has really fascinated me as a wx enthusiast considering how dead the EPAC was and how active the Atlantic was



I had always assumed it was Modoki but I think I heard it was east-based? I will have to search out the thread.

Here it is:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... i#p3015613


I don't think my question got answered (unless it was on a different page), so I'm still not entirely sure.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12953 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:42 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have a question: does anybody know if 1969 was a Modoki El Niño or a traditional El Niño? That year has really fascinated me as a wx enthusiast considering how dead the EPAC was and how active the Atlantic was

2004 is also a Modoki El Niño...
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12954 Postby zzzh » Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:47 pm

Image
Doesn't look Modoki
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/9/23 update: La Niña is over / 61% Chance of El Niño for ASO

#12955 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:14 am

If the Daily SOI tanks big time, like in the -40 to -20 range, would that be a sign that the atmosphere is at least starting to say hello to El Nino?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12956 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:28 am

The key question is what is next for ENSO after the demise of La Niña.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1634908541952872448


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12957 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:45 am

Next test is in 5-7 days when the MJO reaches the Indian Ocean. As long as it keeps moving and does not get strong in that area, transition to El Nino should still continue. If we see a WWB in the Indian Ocean again then that's a problem.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12958 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:19 am

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 at -0.1C.

Image

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC Weekly update= Niño 3.4 at -0.1C / Niño 1+2 at +1.5C

#12959 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:35 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12960 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Next test is in 5-7 days when the MJO reaches the Indian Ocean. As long as it keeps moving and does not get strong in that area, transition to El Nino should still continue. If we see a WWB in the Indian Ocean again then that's a problem.


It looks to go on a weakening phase over the IO and MC. Models hint at rising motion out into the wPac come April. Another bump up would increase the progression. You'd want each month to add on to the one prior for an El Nino.

Image

Image
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