Akash and Gonu thread

[Chacor]

The following posts refer to INVEST 95B in April 2007

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3N
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 77.4E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION PULSING ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT
IN A 081305Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND CONVECTION HAS NOT
YET DEVELOPED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.

That's the JTWC 08/1800Z ABIO/STWO.

However, it has T2.0 from SAB, T2.0 from AFWA and T1.5 from JTWC in satellite fixes.
It's an area to watch as we should be approaching the time of the first peak of the North Indian season.

[P.K.]

It is less organised than it was yesterday.

---------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N) NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2007 09 04 0900 UTC 09 APR. 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------
PART I :- NO STORM WARNING (.)
PART-II:- (1)THE TROUGH OF LOW AT SEA LEVEL OVER
COMORIN AREA PERSISTS (.)
(2) THE OTHER TROUGH OF LOW AT SEA LEVEL OVER
SW-BAY HAS BECOME LESS MARKED (.)

WX SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N) (.)

PART-III: FORECAST
ARB -A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N. WEST OF 80 DEG E.
I) WIND:-(1) E OF 75 DEG.E :-NE 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE S OF 07 DEG.N (.)
(2) W OF 75 DEG.E:-NW/W 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER:- SCATTRED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- SLIGHT (.)

ARB-A2 -ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I) WIND:- NW/N 10/15 KTS BEC NE-LY TO THE WEST OF 70 DEG E(.)
II) WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III) VISIBLITY:-GOOD (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT (.)

BOB -A3- BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. EAST OF 80 DEG.E
I) WIND:-(1) W OF 90 DEG.E:- SE/E 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE S. OF 05 DEG N.(.)
(2) E OF 90 DEG.E:-NE/E 10/15 KTS BEC VRB TO 05 DEG.N (.)
II) WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDE-SPREAD RA/TS TO THE WEST OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBLITY :-POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT (.)

BOB-A4- BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I) WIND :- ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER :- SCATTRED RA/TS(.)
III) VISIBLITY :- POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT (.)


ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[Chacor]

That's interesting, because of the rather high intensity fixes. Speaking of which JTWC is having a 2 and a half day hiatus on doing satfixes apparently, so not sure how exactly that would come into play when deciding if a TCFA should be issued (per the TCFA checklist)...

[P.K.]

Most of the sat fixes yesterday were all T1.5 but you are correct in saying there are some T2.0s at the moment.

[P.K.]

Appears to have been dropped now unless I was looking at the wrong bit to begin with. A Google search brought up the west Indian coast and to the west as the Commorin area.

---------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N) NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2007 09 04 1800 UTC 09 APR. 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------
PART I :- NO STORM WARNING (.)
PART-II:- UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH OF LOW AT SEA LEVEL
OVER COMMORIN AREA A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER THE
SAME REGION (.)

WX SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N) (.)

PART-III: FORECAST
ARB -A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N. WEST OF 80 DEG E.
I) WIND:-(1) E OF 75 DEG.E :-NE 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE S OF 07 DEG.N (.)
(2) W OF 75 DEG.E:-NW/W 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- SLIGHT (.)

ARB-A2 -ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I) WIND:- NW/N 10/15 KTS BEC NE-LY TO THE WEST OF 70 DEG E(.)
II) WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III) VISIBLITY:-GOOD (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT (.)

BOB -A3- BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. EAST OF 80 DEG.E
I) WIND:-(1) W OF 90 DEG.E:- SE/E 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE S. OF 05 DEG N.(.)
(2) E OF 90 DEG.E:-NE/E 10/15 KTS BEC VRB TO THE
S OF 05 DEG.N (.)
II) WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDE-SPREAD RA/TS TO THE WEST OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBLITY :-POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT (.)

BOB-A4- BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I) WIND :- ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER :- SCATTRED RA/TS(.)
III) VISIBLITY :- POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT (.)


ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[P.K.]

This is about 12 hours old but for the record I'll post what it says about this.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------

DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10 APRIL 2007 AAA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC AAA

YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMMORIN REGION HAS BECOME LESS
MARKED, HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER SRI LANKA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
IN ITS ASSOCIATION CONVECTIVE CLOULD ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL, GULF OF MANNAR AND COMMORIN AREA.CONVECTIVE CLOULDS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.)

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 06DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN
REGION (.)

[Chacor]

The following posts refer to INVEST 96B in April 2007

New one in the same general area:




TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/130300Z-131800ZAPR2007//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 82.6E,
APPROX-
IMATELY 165 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-
ERN INDIA IS ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FEEDING THE INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 130003Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 15 KT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. FURTHER UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
NORTH OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Chacor]

473
TPIO10 KGWC 141225
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF SRI LANKA
B. 14/1131Z (23)
C. 7.7N/4
D. 85.2E/5
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/18HRS -14/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD/ANMTN. LLCC IS SHEARED 59NM
NW OF DG CONVECTIVE LYR YIELDING A DT OF T1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

KRAMER/LONG

[hr]
704
TPIO10 PGTW 141224

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF SRI LANKA

B. 14/1130Z

C. 7.6N/3

D. 85.3E/6

E. FIVE/MET7

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
[hr]

It looked better earlier in the day, but...

[Chacor]

The following posts refer to INVEST 96W in April/May 2007

This is an interesting one: a WPac invest that's about to cross the Malay Peninsula into the Bay of Bengal. This has lingered for about four days.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9N 98.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTAL IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING SPANNING THE MALAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
PROVIDING EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO FUEL CONVECTION NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CURRENTLY, INTERACTION WITH
LAND IS HINDERING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORE-
CAST TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL SOON TRACK BACK OVER
WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

There's a mention in the IMD outlook:

WTIN20 DEMS 300650


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
----------------------

DRMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30TH APRIL 2007 AAA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT
0600 UTC AAA

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN
SEA (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.)

System history (according to ATCF BT):

Code: Select all

WP, 96, 2007042618,   , BEST,   0,  32N, 1105E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042700,   , BEST,   0,  39N, 1097E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042706,   , BEST,   0,  44N, 1090E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042712,   , BEST,   0,  53N, 1078E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042718,   , BEST,   0,  69N, 1058E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042800,   , BEST,   0,  69N, 1058E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042806,   , BEST,   0,  73N, 1050E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042812,   , BEST,   0,  77N, 1042E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042818,   , BEST,   0,  81N, 1037E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042900,   , BEST,   0,  87N, 1031E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042906,   , BEST,   0,  90N, 1025E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042912,   , BEST,   0,  93N, 1018E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007042918,   , BEST,   0,  95N, 1007E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007043000,   , BEST,   0,  96N, 1000E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007043006,   , BEST,   0,  97N,  994E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 96, 2007043012,   , BEST,   0,  98N,  988E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

[Coredesat]

Convection's been making a comeback east of the Malay Peninsula. Definitely an interesting system.

[Chacor]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 98.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 96.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHWEST
OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BROAD, DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011134Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 011127Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC WITH
15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC SITUATED SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS, UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THIS AREA IS A BROAD, LOOSELY ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH
MONSOON DEPRESSION CHARACTERISTICS. WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR
THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY INTERACTION WITH THE
MALAY PENINSULA, HOWEVER, THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD OVER WATER AND TO CONSOLIDATE SLOWLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

556
TPIO10 KGWC 020304
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BAY OF BENGAL
B. 02/0231Z
C. 11.2N/4
D. 94.5E/8
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -01/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN.

LAURENTI

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

That wave looks fairly potent right now. It will probably develop.( )

[Chacor]

JTWC: T1.5, AFWA: T2.0

WTIN20 DEMS 020712


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (RECTIFIED)
----------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 2ND APRIL 2007 AAA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT
0600 UTC AAA


THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS LIKELY
TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION.

OCNVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST
BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA. CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST ARABAIAN SEA (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN
REGION (.)

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

We have a depression:

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

Morning’s well marked low pressure area over Andaman sea and neighbourhood intensified into a depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today the 3rd May 2007 near Lat. 13.50 N and Long 93.0 0E about 200 kms north of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northerly direction initially.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 36 hrs.

The squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the same period.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen of these islands are advised not to venture into sea.

Next bulletin will be issued tomorrow morning.

[Coredesat]

Anyone else see a problem here:

WTIN20 DEMS 040104


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
----------------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04 APRIL 2007 AAA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT
0000 UTC (.)

YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0230 HRS IST OF TODAY THE 4TH MAY 2007 NEAR LAT. 14.0 DEG N AND LONG.
93.5 DEG E ABOUT 250 KMS NORTH OF PORT BLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SOME MORE
TIME.

UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY
HEAVY FALLS ARE LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS DURING NEXT
36 HRS.

THE SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 45-55 KMPH ARE LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN
AND NICOBAR ISLANDS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

[P.K.]

BOB 0701 must have been around for a month then. The main public advisory has the correct month however.

[P.K.]

BOB 01/2007/07 Dated : 5th May, 2007

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman sea has moved northeastwards and crossed Arakan coast during morning hours of today the 5th May 2007.

The system has weakened and now lies as a well marked low pressure area over central Myanmar.

Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hrs.

This is the last bulletin for this system.