Bermuda High Position... where will it end up?

[Emmett_Brown]

While it is still early in the season, i am wondering if there are ways to tell what the average position of the Bermuda high will be in the coming months of July, Aug, Sept. I am aware that the high fluctuates, and that it is not yet possible to predict the undulations of ridges and troughs that ultimately send storms on different tracks... but i am referring to the "Average" position... for instance, last year most storms were fish, where in 04-05, the high often bridged the gap to the SE coast, increasing landfalls.

With that said, are there any long range indicators that might give us a clue?

I am a resident of the NE FL coast near St Augustine, ... so this subject is important to me. Thanks for your replies.

[Emmett_Brown]

Also, so kick off the discussion, here is a link to the current surface map. High is not well astablished yet...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_00.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

hard to predict...but perhaps a strong high off florida?

[Emmett_Brown]

Graphics like this on from Accuweather seem to suggest a frightening scenario... anyone agree? If so, why or why not?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

Thanks

[sevenleft]

Graphics like this on from Accuweather seem to suggest a frightening scenario... anyone agree? If so, why or why not?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

Thanks

Its accuweather.

[Emmett_Brown]

Graphics like this on from Accuweather seem to suggest a frightening scenario... anyone agree? If so, why or why not?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

Thanks

Its accuweather.

True, this is Accuweather... but why do they make this prediction... this is a bold prediction, even for them, without some idea of the what the prevailing presure patterns will be...

[windstorm99]

That accuweather prediction points a scary picture for us in florida but in all honesty no matter what the predictions are you have to prepare and have that hurricane plan in place cause even a slow season can turn out bad. Adrian

[artist]

I would think that cone as it is called would be very much the same each year.

[sevenleft]

Graphics like this on from Accuweather seem to suggest a frightening scenario... anyone agree? If so, why or why not?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

Thanks

Its accuweather.

True, this is Accuweather... but why do they make this prediction... this is a bold prediction, even for them, without some idea of the what the prevailing presure patterns will be...

Sell subscriptions.

There is very very very very very little skill in predicting what regions will be more landfall prone.

In general Florida and the GOM coastline are the most vulnerable areas. It is more "difficult" to have east coast landfalling hurricanes.

[Toadstool]

Graphics like this on from Accuweather seem to suggest a frightening scenario... anyone agree? If so, why or why not?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

Thanks

Its accuweather.

That's right, and they can't make $$$ if they don't paint a scary picture.

[deltadog03]

I like there maps....I feel that FL is under the gun this year!!

[DanKellFla]

I would think that cone as it is called would be very much the same each year.

I agree. To me, that graphic could be posted every year at the beginning of the hurricane season and be right more often than not.

[hial2]

That graphic is from 2004...but no matter..it would apply to any year..

[windstorm99]

No sure what the bashing about acuweather is for, as they gave a very detailed 3-5 page explanation on why they feel the threats will be this year.No matter what the outlooks call for you should always prepare and have a hurricane plan in place.Adrian

[SouthFloridawx]

What about the mean position of the 500mb ridge?

[Ixolib]

That graphic is from 2004...but no matter..it would apply to any year..

But is - as you indicated - updated for 2007 as shown in the url....

h t t p : / / vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2007/cone.gif

[wxmann_91]

What about the mean position of the 500mb ridge?

That's the more important thing - and it's something that's quite hard to forecast. Attm we have a 594 dm ridge over the Canaries, but a big weakness west of Bermuda. That will obviously change in the future. If we consider the feedback of the drought conditions over the SE, one can argue a continued strong SE 500mb ridge axis. But, given the positive state of the NAO the past few months, I can see a reversal of the phase, leading to a -NAO, and thus, a weaker SE Ridge. So, in summary, I don't know. I'm not an expert in the long range.

[deltadog03]

I expect the bermuda ridge to be in FULL force this year! The SE will bake this year on a combo of that and the drought feeding back on itself.

[Toadstool]

I expect the bermuda ridge to be in FULL force this year! The SE will bake this year on a combo of that and the drought feeding back on itself.

I hope you're wrong! The break in the Bermuda ridge was what saved us last year!

Here's an satellite image I saved from last year showing Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene passing each other in the night... I would hate to have seen either of those two hit the US!

[TampaFl]

NWS Tampa AFD this afternoon explains about the high:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 211820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007


.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NE FL STAYS
STATIONARY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST AND NORTH. THE LOW
DISIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PENNISULA INTO SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
BUT A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW WINDS DOWN. BY LATE
SATURDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW
BUT A DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN THE PICTURE.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...RAINY SEASON PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY A CONTINUATION OF A QUASI STATIONARY
SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...ONE WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERAL TROUGHING NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST U.S./CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA WITH BROAD
RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WHILE RIDGING
TENDS TO FAVOR EVENTUAL EASTERLY FLOW FOR FLORIDA...THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE WELL WEST OF FLORIDA (GENERALLY
ALONG 85-90 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE). THUS...FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS AND PERHAPS LONGER...THE DEEP ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH MIGHT BE ABLE TO
PRESS INTO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA-CAROLINAS POSITION. THE LAST
FEW GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS...BUT BEING DAY 6 AND 7 I`M NOT ABOUT
TO BITE OFF TOTALLY JUST YET. FOR NOW...WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE 40/50 PERCENT RANGE AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO ANTICIPATING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT THAT`S ALL.

$$

SHORT TERM...CP/MA
LONG TERM....99