Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Ivanhater]

ok...looks like its an invest...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Aric Dunn]

not yet.. the noaa site does that evey once in a while .. not until the NRL page is showing it

[Cyclone1]

Not up on the NRL yet, but hey cool.

[Ivanhater]

well floater has been moved and noaa calling it "invest"...NRL should be right behind...I would think noaa is a little more official anyway...

[Aric Dunn]

its the other way around... navy is in contact with the nhc.. and so on .. NRl is in most cases up first. the noaa site often does there own .. floater but does not mean its official .. or does not mean it wont be ..

[WindRunner]

Technically, it is the NHC that makes the invests official and outputs that fact to the ATCF file that the NRL page automatically updates from. It's available from the NHC's FTP page if you get the update the fastest . . .


EDIT: The title of this thread should be changed so that people don't think we have an invest, as that would be false.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,I edited the title of thread to put the reallity of what is going on in the NOAA and NRL sites.And to not confuse the members. Now,if NRL puts up 96L,then the thread will be the invest 96L thread for sat pics,models and analysis.

[Laser3003]

I don't want to sound dumb, but what does invest stand for?
Investigate?
Thanks

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it's just the designation they give a system when they want to investigate it. Could stand for "invest"igate, could be that they "invest" their time into looking at it. As it's an unofficial term, it probably doesn't actually stand for anything in particular . . . except that it represents a storm being watched for development.

[Cyclone1]

It should be tagged by NRL in the next few hours.

[TheRingo]

agree. this will be an invest soon. convection starting to build now. passed the diurnal minimum stage.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This is the ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast) database mentioned:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/

When this folder:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Has a file like this:
invest_al962007.invest

It will be official. That is the first place to have it. NRL (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html) mirrors the ATCF database, meaning they download information from it and use it to update their site.

The ATCF database has other information that you may find interesting.

I should also note that starting June 1, the NHC no longer provides the ATCF database through their public FTP site. It moved to the faster server located above.

[cycloneye]

Let's continue the discussions of now new invest 96L here.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO, conditions look to be at least somewhat favorable for this system for the next 72 Hours...

12Z GFS showing pretty low upper level winds in it's path. Nothing to call home about, but lower than we've seen so far.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The low pressure is strengthing, with MLC/sharp wave starting to close off at 9 north/38 west. I expect if things keep organizing a closed LLC by mid day tomarrow.

[Brent]

It looks somewhat interesting but it's Early July and pretty far out there, so I really don't expect much to come from it.

[Coredesat]

This doesn't have much of a chance, really. It's currently under 20-30 kt of shear. Even when it moves out of the shear, it will enter bone-dry air.

[drezee]

kind of puzzled...JB isn't bullish. It is kind of like this...JB may overhype some stuff, but he rarely missing anything. If he isn't excited, then i need to be cautious on development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This doesn't have much of a chance, really. It's currently under 20-30 kt of shear. Even when it moves out of the shear, it will enter bone-dry air.

More favorable then what Barry had. In if current trends keep up I fully expect it to have a visible LLC on quickscat by midday tomarrow. Overall not perfect but it has happen before. I give it about ten percent chance of becoming a named storms, and 20 percent chance of becoming t.d 3.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 030436
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0436 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070703 0000 070703 1200 070704 0000 070704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 36.5W 9.5N 38.0W 9.8N 39.3W 9.9N 40.6W
BAMD 9.0N 36.5W 9.2N 38.8W 9.5N 41.0W 9.6N 43.3W
BAMM 9.0N 36.5W 9.3N 38.1W 9.6N 39.5W 9.8N 40.9W
LBAR 9.0N 36.5W 9.4N 38.8W 10.3N 41.3W 11.1N 43.9W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 21KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 21KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070705 0000 070706 0000 070707 0000 070708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 42.2W 10.6N 46.2W 11.5N 50.7W 12.3N 56.5W
BAMD 9.7N 45.6W 10.2N 49.6W 11.5N 53.2W 12.8N 56.5W
BAMM 10.3N 42.4W 11.6N 46.4W 13.5N 51.0W 15.5N 56.0W
LBAR 11.9N 46.6W 13.3N 52.3W 14.7N 57.0W 17.3N 61.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 36.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 34.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



The first model plots for 96L.Intensity does not go up to Tropical Storm in this run.Looks like a track to Caribbean.