Interesting .. thought... or not ??( western gulf)

[Aric Dunn]

Well anyway.. Im just looking around .. and noticed something interesting in the east pac that would normally not interest me.. but it has a good amount of Circ... both in the low and mid levels... surface obs indicate a low moved ashore in the gulf of TEHUANTEPEC. from the looks of the satellite it was well on its way to possibly being a TC if it were not for its proximity to land.. but the interesting thing is its a tropical wave with a well defined circ and its moving mostly North.. I know its a long shot ( but it has happend before) .. but it may be possible to get enough of that system in the SW gulf for us to possibly get something to watch ... the steering flow sugests that it should continue to move north to NNW ... some of the wave already is in the Bay of campeche.. surface pressure across the bay of campeche are not high.. so wonder if it could ..

its just a though since we have nothing else to watch... i guess its possible




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html



THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
96W IS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WAS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PORTION OF THE WAVE WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC WAS MORE ACTIVE WITH WELL DEFINED TURNING
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.





you may also want to use this loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND
FROM THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL MEXICO
BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

[Normandy]

Nope, shear is too high in the Bay of Campeche. The best chance for development of this wave is in the EPAC.

[Aric Dunn]

Nope, shear is too high in the Bay of Campeche. The best chance for development of this wave is in the EPAC.

most likely..

[MGC]

Looks like a chunk of energy is moving north towards the BOC. Doubt anything comes of this. Main energy sould remain south of Mexico and continue moving generally westward. Looks like it might have a shot at spinning up in the EPAC....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

i would watch the BOC ... tomorrow.. appears to be some of the energy lifting north .. from the east pac

[DrewFL]

Energy in the BOC...POOF!
Sorry all y'all!

[skysummit]

Energy in the BOC...POOF!
Sorry all y'all!

Which BOC are you looking at? It's still flaring up down there, and I also see signs of a broad, at least mid level rotation to the convection. There's also an upper level cyclonic flow in the area so it'll be interesting to see if it can persist for a couple days to see how the surface reacts. So far surface readings are not reflecting any kind of circulation.

[Normandy]

....not interesting.

And the mid level turning is down over mexico.

[Nimbus]

There is plenty of shear in the eastern atlantic and gulf today but there could be some changes to the upper air forecast.

The circulation around the tail end of the front in the gulf is pulling upper level clouds NE. The possibility that a surface feature could develop east of the front was mentioned by the NHC.

The TUTT feature north of the islands is beginning to swing north and the ULL south of the Bahamas is starting to fill, so the Caribbean wave will have less shear in 24 hours as well.

[Aric Dunn]

....not interesting.

And the mid level turning is down over mexico.

yes.. its is.. but its moving north.. and there is a pre existing wave in the BOC and there was a weak low over mexico that as moving north as well

[HeeBGBz]

That's a pretty impressive area in the southwestern gulf.

[T-man]

I'm interested. Of course, I live in the marsh,

[lrak]

Lots of rain for Corpus Christi, man am I sick of all these darn mosquitoes.

[jasons2k]

I still see too many outflows for organization

[Normandy]

Seems like some kind of low is actually trying to form near or just inland south of Brownsvile. Still pretty much no shot at development due to land and shear.

[vbhoutex]

Seems like some kind of low is actually trying to form near or just inland south of Brownsvile. Still pretty much no shot at development due to land and shear.

My guess is that that is a mid level vortex you are seeing. Nothing else away from it is circulating around it.

[Aric Dunn]

there is a circulation.. over land near tampico.. 1km vis ible very clear..

[Normandy]

Yes Vbhoutex, def midlevel.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... o&loop=yes

Detectable by brownsville radar. Still has virtually no shot at developing though. Geography isn't on its side.