Invest 98L in W. Atlantic #2 03noname

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

Invest 98L in W. Atlantic #2 03noname

#1 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:51 pm

Now that thread one has reached 25 pages it should be locked and continued here.

Link to Thread 1: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96404
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Regit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#2 Postby Regit » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:51 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Now that thread one has reached 25 pages it should be locked and continued here.

Link to Thread 1: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96404
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#3 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:52 pm

I didn't.... write that. ??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Regit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#4 Postby Regit » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:52 pm

I added the link to the last thread and then quoted it to bump it back up to the top of the forum.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#5 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:53 pm

To continue:

WHXX01 KWBC 310042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 66.1W 37.8N 64.7W 39.7N 62.6W 40.9N 59.8W
BAMD 35.5N 66.1W 38.2N 64.3W 41.0N 61.2W 43.8N 56.0W
BAMM 35.5N 66.1W 37.9N 64.6W 40.3N 62.1W 42.3N 58.1W
LBAR 35.5N 66.1W 38.1N 64.1W 41.1N 61.3W 44.4N 56.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0000 070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.8N 57.1W 42.6N 51.3W 42.9N 46.8W 44.0N 43.1W
BAMD 47.0N 48.5W 54.8N 27.7W 62.6N 17.8W 65.2N 19.9W
BAMM 44.3N 53.1W 49.0N 36.3W 56.3N 17.4W 63.2N 10.0W
LBAR 48.6N 48.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 53KTS 41KTS 16KTS
DSHP 53KTS 53KTS 41KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.7N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Pressure down to 1007 . . . but no increase in wind. That's subtropical unto itself . . .

Max wind is also 55kts at 60hrs . . . about the time it would be fully extratropical, if I remember correctly.
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#6 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:54 pm

Regit said: I added the link to the last thread and then quoted it to bump it back up to the top of the forum.

HAHA, oh man I'm pretty dumb. I knew that.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#7 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:41 pm

QS pass for this evening shows somewhat of elongated or diffuse low center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#8 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:59 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 310156
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0156 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE THREE (AL032007) 20070731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 66.5W 37.7N 65.4W 39.5N 63.6W 40.6N 61.0W
BAMD 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 61.5W 43.7N 56.4W
BAMM 35.5N 66.5W 37.9N 65.2W 40.1N 62.8W 42.1N 58.9W
LBAR 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 62.0W 44.1N 57.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0000 070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.4N 58.5W 41.5N 53.7W 41.2N 50.7W 41.8N 46.8W
BAMD 46.9N 48.7W 54.7N 27.9W 62.5N 18.2W 65.0N 20.0W
BAMM 44.1N 54.0W 48.7N 36.8W 56.0N 17.5W 62.9N 10.0W
LBAR 47.7N 49.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS
DSHP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 32.7N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jam151
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:09 pm

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#9 Postby Jam151 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:01 pm

looks like we have TD3
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#10 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:01 pm

03LNONAME on NRL:


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#11 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:03 pm

WHO HOO! Now I can sleep!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#12 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:05 pm

Jam151 wrote:looks like we have TD3


Or STD 3. QS pass showed strongest winds pretty far north of the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#13 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:06 pm

Oh, same dif.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:07 pm

Looks like STD3.
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#15 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:09 pm

Yeah, wouldn't that be wild if we had two subtropical storms before August? That hasn't happened in a while, I don't feel like looking it up, But I think it was like 74 or something.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145881
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:09 pm

Until it's official from NHC,no new thread will be made in the active storms forum. :)
0 likes   
Top
Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic #2

#17 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:Until it's official from NHC,no new thread will be made in the active storms forum. :)

Agreed, good idea.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145881
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Invest 98L in W. Atlantic #2 03noname

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:12 pm

And if the official word comes in the next few minutes,this thread will be locked.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:15 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0156 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE THREE (AL032007) 20070731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 66.5W 37.7N 65.4W 39.5N 63.6W 40.6N 61.0W
BAMD 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 61.5W 43.7N 56.4W
BAMM 35.5N 66.5W 37.9N 65.2W 40.1N 62.8W 42.1N 58.9W
LBAR 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 62.0W 44.1N 57.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0000 070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.4N 58.5W 41.5N 53.7W 41.2N 50.7W 41.8N 46.8W
BAMD 46.9N 48.7W 54.7N 27.9W 62.5N 18.2W 65.0N 20.0W
BAMM 44.1N 54.0W 48.7N 36.8W 56.0N 17.5W 62.9N 10.0W
LBAR 47.7N 49.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS
DSHP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 32.7N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#20 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:19 pm

Nice call guys. We nailed that one. :D
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, Ulf and 23 guests