Global Models for 90L

[cycloneye]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96876&start=0

Thread 1


Continue here.Now lets see what the other models show,such as GFDL,UKMET,CMC and EURO.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Don't know where to even think this will go once in the Gulf? GFS 500 shows high at 500 rebuilding over Texas slowly, could be a S. TX problem.

[Opal storm]

With this huge ridge and this heat wave the entire SE is under...a due west course to MX/TX seems likely IF this pattern persists that long.

[Sanibel]

I just don't feel a Gilbert track will evolve from this. We'll see what GFS cranks out tomorrow - same Storm2k time - same storm2k channel...

[Extremeweatherguy]

For anyone that missed it on the last thread, the 00z GFS is now showing the following landfalls...

Leeward Islands in 132 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

Tip of Haiti in 174 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Jamaica in ~180 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

Yucatan in 228 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

Texas/Mexico Border in 274 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

Any of those destinations targeted beyond 150 hours should not worry much, but if you are in the Leewards, I would definitely keep a close eye on this system as you may only have 5 days to prepare should it develop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't know where to even think this will go once in the Gulf? GFS 500 shows high at 500 rebuilding over Texas slowly, could be a S. TX problem.

We probably will not have a good idea until we are 100-150 hours out. Until then, I am sure the models will shift many more times to come.

[Stormcenter]

For anyone that missed it on the last thread, the 00z GFS is now showing the following landfalls...

Leeward Islands in 132 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

Tip of Haiti in 174 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Jamaica in ~180 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

Yucatan in 228 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

Texas/Mexico Border in 274 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

That is just too close for comfort. I still think way too much can change before then.

Any of those destinations targeted beyond 150 hours should not worry much, but if you are in the Leewards, I would definitely keep a close eye on this system as you may only have 5 days to prepare should it develop.

[skysummit]

Pretty good consensus on this going to the Caribbean.

Big bowl of pasta....

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty good consensus on this going to the Caribbean.

Big bowl of pasta....

would say so ... lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I think it is probably a safe bet to say that this will reach the Caribbean within the next 6 days (just due to the shear fact that there is so much model consensus). Where it goes after that though is still anyone's guess.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.9N 28.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 13.08.2007 10.9N 28.5W WEAK

12UTC 13.08.2007 11.0N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.2N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.08.2007 13.0N 39.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 13.7N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 14.8N 46.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.8N 50.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.6N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.8N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2007 18.6N 60.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2007 19.3N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

00z UKMET.

[Cyclenall]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96876&start=0

Thread 1


Continue here.Now lets see what the other models show,such as GFDL,UKMET,CMC and EURO.

This is actually thread #3. The thing is, the last thread didn't have #2 labelled.

I swear, this thing has covered almost everywhere!! The only place left is South America . I doubt it will end up hitting the Mexico/Texas boarder, that would be insane.

[cycloneye]

952
WHXX04 KWBC 120524
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.7 21.3 275./13.0
6 12.4 22.4 301./12.8
12 12.4 24.2 271./17.8
18 12.8 25.9 281./16.5
24 12.5 27.9 264./19.9
30 12.1 29.9 259./19.2
36 11.9 31.4 260./15.0
42 11.9 32.6 270./12.5
48 12.0 34.0 277./13.7
54 12.3 35.7 280./16.9
60 12.5 37.3 275./15.9
66 12.8 38.7 282./13.8
72 13.3 40.2 289./15.5
78 13.8 42.2 285./19.2
84 14.1 44.1 278./19.1
90 14.4 46.1 281./19.3
96 14.8 47.7 283./16.1
102 15.2 49.5 283./18.2
108 15.4 51.2 275./16.7
114 15.6 52.7 277./14.2
120 15.7 54.0 276./12.9
126 15.9 55.3

00z GFDL

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

00z CMC Animation

Interesting what shows in the GOM apart from 90L.

[Aric Dunn]

00z Ukmet
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

man it has it hauling but!!

[Aric Dunn]

00z hwrf still a cat 3

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation




gfdl up to a cat two now

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Cyclenall]

Thread #1: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96802&start=0

Thread #2: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96876&start=0

There we go.

That Canadian model keeps on forming a TC in the Gulf. I found it funny last run when it showed a hurricane or TS strengthening over Florida .

[SouthFloridawx]

00z Ukmet
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

man it has it hauling but!!

Yep, that's hauling butt.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the WRF and GFDL want to have this system gain some slight latitude in the near term before turning it back on an almost due west course by days 4-5.