Disturbed weather in Western Atlantic

[Vortex]

An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed about 200 miles North of the Greater Antilles this evening..Some models close off an area of low pressure as it heads west towards the bahamas. Something of potential interest later this weekend....

NAM 18Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


CMChttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

[Vortex]

NAM 00Z 9/15 rolling in..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


***Also notice Ingrid coming into the picture at the end of run moving west.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The convection is being caused by a ULL. Doesn't look good for development.

[destruction92]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The convection is being caused by a ULL. Doesn't look good for development.

The same was said about conditions in the GOM a week ago...and look what developed...Hurricane Humberto.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The convection is being caused by a ULL. Doesn't look good for development.

The same was said about conditions in the GOM a week ago...and look what developed...Hurricane Humberto.

Until the ULL doesn't leave the area, development will be almost impossible. Also, if you look a windshear map you will see that this area is being affected by the same level of windshear that is affecting or will be affecting Ingrid.

[xironman]

Is that a pure upper level low there? From the 8:05 TPC TWD

ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA
ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER.

Down to the mid levels, maybe something will dig down. The shear is pretty wild.

[gatorcane]

Hmmmmm..interesting its close to the Bahamas and heading west...lots of shear though.

Something to watch.

[ronjon]

That ULL is progged by the Euro to head southwest and be over DR and then the SW caribbean in a couple of days. Whatever convection firing near it today may be left on it own east of the Bahamas. With strong high pressure building down off the Atlantic that will lead to increased surface convergence. However, upper level winds do not look favorable. Maybe some hybrid type system (subtropical) may develop - especially with some baroclinic energy diving down off the SE coast.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


11:30 AM TWO.

[hurricanetrack]

That's funny. He said "very" slow....don't know that I have ever seen that before in an outlook. Used to seeing "slow to occur" but very? Wow....

[x-y-no]

That's funny. He said "very" slow....don't know that I have ever seen that before in an outlook. Used to seeing "slow to occur" but very? Wow....

You know, it's my impression that Avila has been more inclined to elaborate a little bit in his advisories and discussions this year. He's always been very terse in the past. I've always thought him an excellent forecaster, but I kind of like the change in style.

[cheezyWXguy]

Most forecasters wouldnt usually even mention something like any random ULL. I think this maybe the TUTT low that is forecast to move into the gulf later this week and possibly become a TC

[xironman]

Actually the shear is much worse to the west of where the convection is http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html the storms are in an island of calm, maybe the shear will move west a bit faster and something could build.

[Blown Away]

If the NHC mentions this in the 11am Tropical Outlook, there must be something to it.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Sat CDN is moving the energy from this area WNW and then NW to near the SE coast. Once near the FL coast, it seems to combine with some of the energy that is now moving off the coast and thus develops into a surface circ. It is the only model doing this currently and the CDN is a relatively awful model. Therefore, I'm taking this with a grain of salt. However, what this does is to tell me that the energy/moisture associated with this dist. area appears to be heading WNW and then NW for the SE coast around Wed. and that its development or lack thereof may be crucial as far as whether or not a surface low ever develops off the SE coast this upcoming week. Therefore, I'll be closely watching this area.

[xironman]

If you zoom in on 23N 69W from this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html, there looks to be something going on at the mid levels.

[cpdaman]

PO tentialy interesting can anyone tell how fast this feature is moving i could not find that mentioned in the discussions

[xironman]

Obviously the NHC is not as bullish on this area as I am. But I would note they say "primarily" for the upper levels, from todays TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT
THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[ROCK]

it does look like some mid-level spin.....maybe trying to get to the surface....I have heard of ULL doing this is the past but have never seen it happen myself...

[HURAKAN]

it does look like some mid-level spin.....maybe trying to get to the surface....I have heard of ULL doing this is the past but have never seen it happen myself...

I must say, I'm impress. Lets see what DMAX does and what would happen when shear subsides.