NO Mayoral Race

[Audrey2Katrina]

Personally, I'm glad I no longer live in the city proper--(trying VERY hard here to avoid the inevitable "political" brand)--suffice it to say I find neither of the choices very pallatable.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I also find it VERY interesting that while Foreman endorsed Landrieu, Couhig endorsed Nagin. Hmmmmm....

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

The 2000 census recorded 484674 as the population of New Orleans. With 72000 votes cast that represents 14.8%............possibly someone from the former Enron or WorldCom could make these numbers look different.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there are evacuees that have no intention of returning.

Not arguing the statistics... but it would indeed take someone from the former Enron to make that 14.8% remotely represent the VOTERS of the city. We all know about how statistics can be used . the 2004 US Census estimate shows a continued decline and estimates the population more akin to 462,269. This is a small matter as we all know that infants aren't voters (under legal circumstances ) and neither is anyone who is either under the age of 18 OR a registered voter. Figuring that maybe 70% of the population is in the "elligible" category, and that's a very liberal (no pun intended) estimate, then you "might" have approx. 320,000 elligible voters (and frankly I don't think it's remotely that high) which would make it about a 22.5% turnout using PRE-Katrina rolls. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending upon your perspective) it is estimated that the city currently does NOT have even 200,000 residents (in fact it isn't expected to cross that for a while) at this time, and in all likelihood there weren't above 150-180,000 residents at the time of the election...using the same ratio of "eligible" voters, then a 72,000 voter turnout (almost certainly the in-city tally as the Sec'y of State has now shown well over 100,000 votes were cast) is indeed close to a 50% turnout--Interestingly enough though, the latest I could find showed that something close to 105,000 overall votes were cast. (perhaps this is after the absentees came in) and that would be 32% even of a pre-Katrina, tally. Considering the huge diaspora Katrina created, (a considerable number I am confident will NOT ever return--as you accurately point out.) I feel it was indeed probably between 55-60% of those in-city who voted, and a MUCH smaller among the diapora who did. I know... splitting hairs; but we are NOT dealing with a very "typical" situation here. And I stand on my previous position that given the import of the election, even 55-60 is a tragically low turnout. Frankly I feel Landrieu will win the runoff but it will be closer than some might think, and as for the future of the city.... ahhh well... to coin a phrase, C'est la vie!

A2K

[TSmith274]

I also find it VERY interesting that while Foreman endorsed Landrieu, Couhig endorsed Nagin. Hmmmmm....

A2K

You got that right! I was shocked. But like I always say... PERCEPTION is reality. If we re-elect Nagin, what do you think the rest of the country will think... fair or not. We need to show change. Otherwise, the help we need may dry up.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I also find it VERY interesting that while Foreman endorsed Landrieu, Couhig endorsed Nagin. Hmmmmm....

A2K

You got that right! I was shocked. But like I always say... PERCEPTION is reality. If we re-elect Nagin, what do you think the rest of the country will think... fair or not. We need to show change. Otherwise, the help we need may dry up.

I wasn't that shocked... if you watched the last debate (the one on MSNBC nationally) when asked to see who they would pick amongst themselves to be a right-hand if they had to pick someone... Nagin picked Couhig... probably because of his blunt "honesty" which was a breath of fresh air--can't tell you how disappointed I was that he didn't finish higher. Also, to borrow a little from Forrest Gump: Perception is as Perception does. I know a LOT of folks in Lakeview (which was among the only 6 precincts Couhig carried) who will absolutely NOT vote for Landrieu because of the very same animal: Perception. Louisiana is positively notorious for its political dynasties--going back at least to the Longs. And now there are Landrieu's all over the place (hence not much real "change")--almost like a royal family in the state--e.g. the Kennedy's in Massachusettes. I dunno... I'm not big on either of these two choices... but I hope that something evolves that brings the city out of the depths of near despair I see prevailing at this time. This hurricane did a lot to bring what was already a city in big trouble into a true crisis of astronomical proportions, and we're tottering hazardously close to the event horizon of falling into a black hole. I know--sounds extremely negative... but despite all that, believe me, I'm still sticking around and putting what little I can offer into seeing it resurrect--it's just that looking at this picture en toto, well suffice it to say it's not a pretty picture.

A2K

[TSmith274]

A2K, you pretty much hit the nail on the head there. I agree.