NOEL Aftermath

[cycloneye]

NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

The Area from the OuterBanks to Maine in the East coast of the .U.S. is now included in this threat thread.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sold on the ET transition. The phase diagrams are keeping this as asymmetric warm core up until about the tim of landfall.


I wonder if we are going to have a Wilma-like scenario where the ET keeps getting pushed back

[cycloneye]

If that turns out occuring,then hurricane warnings have to go up in New England as this will acelerate as time goes by.

[Derek Ortt]

I think watches will need to be considered

Also, this will start to fly very soon. The trough is capturing it right now

This could be passing by SNE on Saturday morning

[RL3AO]

I just noticed Cape Cod is now in the edge of the cone.

[cycloneye]

Those who live from the Outerbanks northward to Maine can post local NWS statements here.

[crownweather]

I have updated our tropical weather page to account for the threat to New England/Canadian Maritimes. BEWARE It is a very long/comprehensive page.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[hurricanedude]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR...37.2N 71.9W...36.8N
72.9W...36.7N 73.6W...35.4N 75.1W...

TONIGHT
N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KT... EXCEPT OVER THE GULF STREAM TO 50 KT...AND FAR E PORTION S
TO SE 15 TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT...EXCEPT NW PORTION 4
TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT...EXCEPT OVER THE GULF STREAM
TO 21 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRI
FAR NW PORTION...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 13 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST SE. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...
EXCEPT TO 60 KT IN THE GULF STREAM...AND FAR SE PORTION E 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT TO 30 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM. SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT.

FRI NIGHT
N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT
FROM THE GULF STREAM E...55 TO 65 KT...AND FAR E PORTION S 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT... EXCEPT FROM THE GULF STREAM E...20 TO
32 FT...HIGHEST E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT
N TO NW WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT FROM THE GULF STREAM E
50 TO 65 KT. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING TO NW 20 TO 30 KT LATE...
EXCEPT FAR NE PORTION TO 35 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 16 FT...
EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 16 TO 23 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BECOMING HIGHEST
NE.

[Terry]

Update from Elbow Cay, Abacos

01 November / 1600 EDT
Skies are little brighter now and the rain has eased somewhat. White Sound is still reporting gusts of 55 knots (63 mph)

with the direction slowly moving towards the north. No damage reported on Elbow Cay and no concerns for safety of residents or visitors.
BEC power went out on Elbow Cay, Lubbers & Tilloo at approximately 1550 and is expected to remain off until at least tomorrow. Some phones at the south end of the Cay are also now out.

[dougjp]

I have updated our tropical weather page to account for the threat to New England/Canadian Maritimes. BEWARE It is a very long/comprehensive page.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Many thanks for your exceptional site.

[cycloneye]

Those members who live in Canada can post local Statements about this system that by the proyected forecasts,will affect Eastern Canada as a very powerful extratropical system.

[btangy]

If that turns out occuring,then hurricane warnings have to go up in New England as this will acelerate as time goes by.

Noel will be extratropical by then. High wind warnings, coastal flood warnings, and gale/storm warnings will be the substitute as is usually the case with nor'easters. High wind watches have been issued already by Taunton and Caribou.

[cycloneye]

Another report from the Dominican Republic.From stormcarib.com

From: Roberta Mullin <robertamullin at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Nov 2007 15:34:50 -0700 (PDT)

<it seems that the male named storms bother us more than the female. <here in Bani, in the heavily hit southwest part of the country, we have had so much rain that <i wonder if we can handle any more and it is still coming. We have been without power since Sunday night and so <i am at an internet centre writing this and using a Spanish keyboard so please excuse the punctuation mistakes.
The rain started around noon on Saturday, with a thunder and lightning storm. The latter hit a tree across the street from us, fell and hit our power line and knocked out our inverter so we have been dependent on street electricity since then. Since this has been non existant, we are using a cooler filled with ice for our fridge.
The rain began in earnest Saturday evening, all day Sunday and <monday. Some time <monday morning the river crested and <i think it was 25 to 30 feet above normal. When <i saw it later in the morning it had gone down somewhat but it was still a ragin torrent and still is. Several people, maybe 20 maybe more lost their houses and many more had two or three feet of water in them which is now mud. <unpaved roads are difficult to drive on so you use your snow experience as mud and snow are more or less the same for driving.
According to the radio, 41 people are confirmed dead and about 40 are missing. Some people have spent three or four days on the roof of a school and some in trees waiting for rescue. The helicopters were busy today so hopefully everyone has been rescued.
The bridge in Paya broke in two but was fixed by Tuesday afternoon. The bridge that was out in Galleon is also fixed. The road to Ocoa is missing about 400 metres so no one can pass there. Azua is shut off from Bani by another bridge that is down.
<people who lost their houses are taking refuge in schools or with neighbours. <on <monday there were people moving their mattresses, beds, stoves and other possessions in pickup trucks to the school. The government is sending trucks with food and mattresses. Today we had a bit of sun and lines and fences all had clothes drying.
In other words, it is a mess here but at least now we in Bani can communicate with the capital, if not with other parts of the southwest. <hopefully it will stop raining soon

http://stormcarib.com/

[CrazyC83]

If that turns out occuring,then hurricane warnings have to go up in New England as this will acelerate as time goes by.

Noel will be extratropical by then. High wind warnings, coastal flood warnings, and gale/storm warnings will be the substitute as is usually the case with nor'easters. High wind watches have been issued already by Taunton and Caribou.

That doesn't get the attention like a hurricane warning does...I wonder how unprepared people will be for this?

[btangy]

That doesn't get the attention like a hurricane warning does...I wonder how unprepared people will be for this?

A hurricane warning is unwarranted given that Noel will not be a hurricane. Sure, a high wind warning doesn't sound as frightening, but given the strong wording in the marine weather statements and high wind watches that have been put out so far, it should be enough to let people know not to have a picnic or go sailing on Saturday.

[CrazyC83]

That doesn't get the attention like a hurricane warning does...I wonder how unprepared people will be for this?

A hurricane warning is unwarranted given that Noel will not be a hurricane. Sure, a high wind warning doesn't sound as frightening, but given the strong wording in the marine weather statements and high wind watches that have been put out so far, it should be enough to let people know not to have a picnic or go sailing on Saturday.

Yes, but hurricane or not, these kind of winds can do significant property damage and cause widespread power outages...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am not sold on the ET transition. The phase diagrams are keeping this as asymmetric warm core up until about the tim of landfall.


I wonder if we are going to have a Wilma-like scenario where the ET keeps getting pushed back

Well even if there is or isn't an ET for the people effected it is like the difference between getting hit by a transport truck or a train, either way it is gonna hurt.

[cycloneye]

Exactly,warm core or extratropical,the effects will be the same.Be prepared fellow members up there for a wild ride this weekend and be safe.

[TheShrimper]

The people in New England are used to this. Don't worry about them. Cat.2 pressures are commonplace during the winter Noreasters. Anything Noel has to offer them, won't phase them a bit, infact they're probably laughing at the concerns shown here. As far as the commercial fishing industry is concerned, anyone down here wouldn't have the balls to venture out long lining or lobstering in the conditions they are always faced with in the winter storms. They wouldn't even get out of the harbor. This is nothing to them, it's a walk thru the park.

[cycloneye]

Even though,in the title of this thread,the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas are not there now,you can post news from those areas about the effects of NOEL especially news from Haiti and the Dominican Republic that has been very bad with many lives lost.