OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[cycloneye]

...NEW INFORMATION...

STORM INFORMATION...POSITION AND TRACK UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY NOON...AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
PROBLEMS...AS WELL AS LAND AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS ACROSS
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER RELOCATING TO SAFER
AREAS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDES OF TWO TO FOUR FEET ARE TO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WAVE ACTION SUPERIMPOSED UPON THESE
ELEVATED TIDES. NORMALLY TRANQUIL COASTLINES ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF ST CROIX AND THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES ARE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND THEN REACH HURRICANE
FORCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS ST CROIX...AND LAST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RESIDENTS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN SHOULD
PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS JUST UNDER
HURRICANE FORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHER WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR ST CROIX...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
MPH OR GREATER IS 70 PERCENT...AND FOR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER
IS 20 PERCENT.

FOR ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 50 PERCENT...AND FOR WINDS OF 74
MPH OR GREATER IS 13 PERCENT.

FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 43 PERCENT...AND FOR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER
IS 10 PERCENT.

FOR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 35 PERCENT...AND FOR WINDS OF
74 MPH OR GREATER IS 6 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
OMAR...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALONG AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF ITS PATH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE 11:30 PM.

$$

[caribepr]

Hey folks,it will be a hurricane at 11 PM.Best Track update shows it.

AL, 15, 2008101500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 683W, 65, 979

What does that mean for us, Luis?

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,it will be a hurricane at 11 PM.Best Track update shows it.

AL, 15, 2008101500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 683W, 65, 979

What does that mean for us, Luis?

These are for intensity forecasts not for tracking.

[Dionne]

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

What do you think *the northern Leeward Islands* means...opinion, I mean

All the islands north of Montserrat.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST.
MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS...BY THEIR
RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

[cycloneye]

[dizzyfish]

[Gustywind]

An interresting discussion from a correspondant of Antigua track...speaking about a POSSIBLE shift, hope nothing from that...BUT we should continue to monitor OMAR us in the Southern Leewards...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

- Updates from the Islands -
- - Antigua - -

- HURRICANE OMAR
From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:24:23 -0400

Up early this morning now with eyes WIDE OPEN.. This weather developed fast... And is coming at us FROM THE WRONG WAY as LENNY DID in 1999 !! . We have a hurricane on our doorstep.... Just since I came home from having fun in the big apple this monster has developed and certainly has the attention of all of us in the northern leeward islands...

On the present path Antigua is just outside of hurricane winds with the closest point of the eye expected to pass 178 miles from us in 27 hours or early tomorrow (WEDNESDAY MORNING) -

However just spoke to our met office and they say THERE COULD BE A SHIFT to the SOUTH and we would be in the more direct path so we must pay close attention for the next advisory this morning.

Will certainly do a review of my hurricane check list over the next hours.

[Gustywind]

Hey carib i know that you could be busy in terms of preparation etc, but if you have time, don't forget to give us all the signs before Omar, remember my thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102339" abudance of fruits meaning an approching cane"...
Keep us informed...me too if i have signs who can be observed... i will post them!

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -
- - St.Thomas (USVI) - -
- Early to Rise
From: "Jane Higgins" <jhigginswear at islands.vi>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:19:02 -0400

I notice my island neighbors were up early this morning writing their reports. I've beenup since 4am just checking some sites, and at really slow mo speeds. All day yesterday andlast night netted about a half inch of sprinkles. A few shutters are in place and all will be finished within a few hours. It is the waiting around and not knowing for sure what is coming that can drive you abit batty, but being prepared can make the difference between another long day or a mess. Please stay in touch and take great care.


Jane Higgins from the moldy damp west end of St Thomas

[msbee]

an abundance of fruit, gusty? never heard that.
I do notice the birds are quiet.. not many at our feeders this morning. all is grya and still here.
only drizzle...so far!

[cycloneye]

Same here Barbara.Wind is calm,birds not making the same noise as usual,gray skie.I am already prepared for the worse however I know San Juan wont get the eye but you never know.I am praying for our friends to my east that all goes good in the islands and stay safe.

[Gustywind]

an abundance of fruit, gusty? never heard that.
I do notice the birds are quiet.. not many at our feeders this morning. all is grya and still here.
only drizzle...so far!

Ok tkanks.
Stay safe Barbara, the latest weather forecasts are not so optimistic for St Marteen seems that a direct HIT is more and more anticipated...

[Gustywind]

Same here Barbara.Wind is calm,birds not making the same noise as usual,gray skie.I am already prepared for the worse however I know San Juan wont get the eye but you never know.I am praying for our friends to my east that all goes good in the islands and stay safe.

Tkanks Cycloneye i appreciate , me too i give you all the very best and i hope nothing too bad from Omar...

[msbee]

a direct hit? where are you getting that gusty?
I keep hearing it will pass 50 NM to our west!

[Gustywind]

From Montserrat...

- Hoping Omar's visit is a short one
From: Tina Bretton <tbretton59 at msn.com>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:27:34 -0500

Good Morning

We are up early preparing for Omar.
Lots &lots of rain last night. Plenty of thunder and lightening. The Belham Valley was flooded. During the flashes of lightening you could see the massive amount of water that was coming down. It was amazing. The noise from the storm and from the flood waters, made it pretty tough to sleep.
If you are anywhere near the cone, be safe & be smart. Prepare as if you are in the cone, you never know if it will "wobble" which would put your island in direct line. Better safe then sorry.
All our neighbors are in my prayers. Hopefully, Omar will come and quickly leave.

God Bless
Tina
Isles Bay
Montserrat

[Gustywind]

a direct hit? where are you getting that gusty?
I keep hearing it will pass 50 NM to our west!

Our latest weather forecast of Meteo-France, and for our Pro Mets St Marteen could be directly impacted....

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 151145
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...
130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR COULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH...94 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N...67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[msbee]

8 AM advisory has it's closest point to us at 18.70, 64.9 or about 50-60 miles from us.
that is using the tool on stormcarib..how close can it get?
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

I wonder why Gusty said we may get a direct hit. but what about BVI and Culebra? what are your coordinates?
doesn't that put BVI much closer to the center than us?
Barbara

[BatzVI]

Good morning .... final preps being done, shutters almost all up....everyone in the islands, stay safe and take care.... overcast here, not much wind.....