STORM2K

i have noticed a consistent discrepancy in the BOB tropical cyclone intensity estimates between the RSMC Delhi and the JTWC...there appears to be a systemic underestimate of intensity by the RSMC vis-a-vis the JTWC...this appears to consistent across all time frames ...is there a good reason why?......thanx for the help.....rich

I don't know why, but I wouldn't trust IMD's forecast with my life, but 500 million people have to.

IMD uses 3 minute sustained winds and JTWC 1 minute sustained winds, so the JTWC estimates are always higher though the difference shouldn't be that high, I really believe that IMD totally underestimates the intensity of tropical cyclones.

Macrocane wrote: I really believe that IMD totally underestimates the intensity of tropical cyclones.

Massive understatement. Deep depressions don't have eyewalls, which is what Pre-Nargis had.

as you noted, RL...those errors endanger some of the world's most vulnerable coastlines and exceptionally dense populations at elevations along the BOB that are akin to those of the fla keys...hopefully there is some local access to better info(JTWC)

weatherwindow wrote:as you noted, RL...those errors endanger some of the world's most vulnerable coastlines and exceptionally dense populations at elevations along the BOB that are akin to those of the fla keys...hopefully there is some local access to better info(JTWC)

Doubtful since JTWC is primarily for US Military and diplomatic interests only-therein BTW is the rub since the Indian Government is not amenable to using any US Military sourced information.

Steve

The IMD wind speeds should be lower than the JTWC ones as stated above. In recent times the IMD have got much better with regards to the intensities of cyclonic storms than they were even a couple of years ago even if there is still a little way to go.