TD 5 question - NWS

[Cookiely]

I'm confused about what the NWS in Tampa is saying concerning TD 5. If the GFS is saying Yucatan channel then I would assume that it will track into TEX-MEX area which I would think would lower our chances of rain, then why does it say rain advecting into our area. Can someone explain this to me in English that I can understand. Also, I've read so much low shear, high shear, its going to be destroyed, its going to become a hurricane. This is crazy.
LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...THE FORECAST BEGINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (SUN NITE TO
TUE)...BUT CHANGES BEGIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BECAUSE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5...NOW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PREFER THE
NEW GFS SOLUTION BASED ON THE 00Z 25 AUG RUN. TD 5 IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
TUESDAY ...WHILE A 591 DM 500 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WITH A CENTER NEAR TAMPA. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF OUR
CWA UNDER SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND MID/HIGH
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWERING POPS FROM LIKELY
CATEGORY TO SCATTERED CATEGORY OR CLIMO NORMS.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK OF TD 5. GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM TD 5...LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN
GULF...IS ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. WILL OPT TO TREND POPS UPWARD
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALL CHANGE IF THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEEPS IT FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

&&

[wjs3]

Cookiely:

I guess I would start things off by saying that going through the Yucatan Channel does not mean Texas/Mexico for a storm. Look at Ivan, as the first example that pops to mind for me.

I haven't looked at modeling this AM...so shouldn;t comment more.

Winn