Why East?
Posted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:06 pm
by bayoubebe
What is it exactly that stears a storm, such as Ernesto, toward the East?
Why have the models all swung that way?
Basic steering education needed please.
Posted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:43 pm
by wxmann_91
Well, ernesto didn't necessarily just go "east", but the models trended to the right (and the storm track has shifted to the right) most likely because...
a) center reformation
b) ULL to the north that suddenly developed and induced a weakness
Had either one of these not happened, or had Ernesto remained shallow, I'm sure we'd be dealing with a formidable hurricane to the south of Jamaica right now. Sorta reminds me of Irene last year.
We learned not to trust climatology 100% and the pressure-wind relationship last year. This year we learn to never underestimate the power of an ULL.