STORM2K

It seems there is an incomplete understanding concerning which "blobs" will develop and which won't. Consequently, the models do not handle blobs and weak systems well.

I would think that getting as much data as possible on many/every blob that forms would help develop a better understanding of the "birthing" process.

One of the most comprehensive sources of information we can get for an area are recon flights. However, flights are not sent out until systems are fairly well developed. So, are we missing out on opportunities to improve such understanding? (I realize that resources are limited. But if that was not the case, would more recon flights be worthwhile?)

Its proven that recon, especially dropsondes in the outer environment improve the track prediction by 20% or more. Undoubtedly, recon is the only truth we have in how strong these systems are - all other techniques that provide intensity information are estimates only and are limited.

But its the resources and especially the money to field the recon aircraft which is an enormous limitation. Maybe in a decade or so, when unmanned vehciles like the predator or global hawk become outfitted for weather recon, we can have around the clock coverage across the entire Atlantic basin.

Yeah, the budget is a killer. I believe that congress has a line item funding for hurricane reconaissance, but there are still limitations - man power, equipment, range, fuel, maintenance and the cost.

So, we always seem to be limited to recon only when a Tropical system is a threat to land. Thats my take on it at least.

In the Pacific, yeah, certainly. But hurricane hunters are humans and there is always the issue of $$$, unfortunately.

FY budgets seriously limits Hurricane Hunter recon flights... Pacific flights were effective WHEN they were in operation. The NHC has been cancelling flights and/or making TSPOD's Negative Flights requirements more and more frequently... this will be common until the budget issue is settled.

Take what you can get.