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El Nino/La Nina Cycles

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 1:04 am
by Ptarmigan
Is there any way to find out if the year was either El Nino, La Nina, or Neither going back to before 1950? The El Nino/La Nina data I have seen go back to 1950, not before.

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:00 pm
by DrCloud
There's some information in Figure 3 of this paper.

You've probably seen the NOAA/CDC (or whatever they're called now) time series -- this is the one that starts at 1950. Datasets that extend back farther aren't as solid as what was used in that more recent time series, though, especially if you're looking for quantitative results. HPH

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:15 pm
by Ptarmigan
DrCloud wrote:There's some information in Figure 3 of this paper.

You've probably seen the NOAA/CDC (or whatever they're called now) time series -- this is the one that starts at 1950. Datasets that extend back farther aren't as solid as what was used in that more recent time series, though, especially if you're looking for quantitative results. HPH


Thanks. I am interested in it because of hurricane seasons before 1950. I know there were active ones that time, among them 1933.

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:32 pm
by Ptarmigan
I found this El Nino data courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency.
El Nino Data
Read Me For The El Nino Data

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 6:05 pm
by AussieMark
some years that were el nino years are:

1902/03
1905/06
1911/12
1913/14
1914/15
1919/20
1925/26
1940/41
1941/42
1946/47

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 7:08 pm
by Aslkahuna
CPC has SOI data in tabular form going back to 1882 in their Monitoring and Index section on their site. Just have to know how to dig it out.

Steve

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:46 pm
by Ptarmigan
AussieMark wrote:some years that were el nino years are:

1902/03
1905/06
1911/12
1913/14
1914/15
1919/20
1925/26
1940/41
1941/42
1946/47


Not surprised by 1914. Only one storm was recorded, which I find highly suspect because there were probably a lot more, but they were likely fish and also World War I started. I looked at 1946 through 1947 and it appears to be a La Nina year based on the data. Just curious, how do you determine if there is an El Nino or La Nina year?

Posted: Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:57 am
by wxmann_91
BoM has SOI data going back to 1876. Just found it today.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 5:58 am
by AussieMark
Ptarmigan wrote:
AussieMark wrote:some years that were el nino years are:

1902/03
1905/06
1911/12
1913/14
1914/15
1919/20
1925/26
1940/41
1941/42
1946/47


Not surprised by 1914. Only one storm was recorded, which I find highly suspect because there were probably a lot more, but they were likely fish and also World War I started. I looked at 1946 through 1947 and it appears to be a La Nina year based on the data. Just curious, how do you determine if there is an El Nino or La Nina year?


based on SOI readings

i.e

1946
Mar: -2.0
APr: -9.6
May: -11.4
Jun: -9.6
Jul: -10.2
Aug: -4.4
Sep: -16.0
Oct: -12.3
Nov: -1.4
Dec: -5.5

1947
Jan: -4.9
Feb: -4.1

also during this event Australia had a strong Drought which is consistent with a El Nino event

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