Are there weather models that predict...

[Taffy]

Are there weather models that predict weather events or changes, rather, other than Tropical weather?

Specifically, I am wondering if temperatures are going to change any time soon, even ever so slight.. in Florida because the seasons are attempting to change.

Can you hear me grasping for cooler weather of ANY KIND down hear in Southwest Florida

[JonathanBelles]

As I understand it, there are two types of models. Global for normal weather and Tropical models for well the Tropics. The GFDL and HWRF are Tropical models and the GFS and Euro are global models. Check me on this.

[Wthrman13]

The global (such as GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS) and regional models (such as NAM, COAMPS, various versions of the WRF, and many others) are all dynamical models designed to simulate and predict atmospheric flow of all kinds, not just tropical weather. There is no set-in-stone demarcation in a physical sense between tropical and nontropical weather, and so these models, which are based on physical equations of motion of air and water in the atmosphere, don't make that distinction either. Tropical vs. nontropical weather is merely a convenient distinction we humans make to better understand the different processes that are dominant for each, but the models (with a few exceptions) don't really care about these category distinctions. So, the GFS model, for example, can simulate both tropical and nontropical weather, including making a prediction of the temperature changes near your hometown, while at the same time simulating the development of a tropical wave way out near Africa. It's the same model with the same equations that handles both, and meteorologists use it for both. Now, how well the GFS actually performs at either one of these applications is a completely different story, and it's true that some models are better suited for different types/scales of weather phenomena than others, for various reasons. For example, you will never see the GFS predict a tornado, because the resolution of the model doesn't go that high, and we lack the observations at that scale anyway to properly initialize the model. At best it can predict that the general conditions in an area (say about the size of a state or so) will be conducive for tornado formation.

Incidentally, as of yet, we do not have any operational models that are capable of even attempting to explicitly predict individual tornadoes, and it will probably at least a few decades before we do, let alone have ones that are accurate at it. Some research groups (including my own), are, however, working on projects in which we are attempting to use models to more accurately simulate and even predict tornadoes in certain instances, but the research is still in it's early stages, and requires massive amounts of computer power and storage to even attempt it.

There are a suite of "tropical models" that the NHC and other agencies use to help predict tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. Some of these are dynamical, like the global and regional models mentioned above, but are specifically designed to be more accurate at predicting hurricane dynamics (such as the Hurricane WRF, or HWRF, and the GFDL hurricane models) than the more general models mentioned above. Other tropical models aren't even dynamical, but instead are based on statistics of past storms (such as the CLIPER model), or based on certain very simplified ideas of how hurricanes move (such as the BAM set of models).

Hopefully I have enlightened, rather than obscured!

[Taffy]

You taught me something, so it is a good day!
How does a meteorologist forcast what the temperatures will be say in a week?