#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:27 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
110.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 109.9E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, YET ILL-DEFINED, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, EVIDENT ON A 120253Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
A 112336Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ERRATIC CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SST (28C).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 20 KNOTS WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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