Tropical Storm Alberto

[WindRunner]

Well, still 40kts at 11pm.

[wxman57]

Well, still 40kts at 11pm.

Not likely. Only 44 kts at FL. Even in a purely tropical storm, the conversion of .7 X FL = only 30 kts, and this isn't purely tropical. It's a TD but they don't want to downgrade it "just in case".

[spinfan4eva]

If the NHC forecast of 60 mph verifies I will be shocked. I doubt this survives the day tomorrow.

Yeah, I don't know what they're thinking over there. What on earth indicates an increasingly favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf? I can't even imagine what they're looking at.

In the past, when a storm turns into the direction of the wind shear, it has become less of a factor. Maybe thats it.

Expect any watches/warnings for the east coast by morning???? Forecast has it very near Jax as a 50mph Tropical storm still.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 30.1n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

[stormtruth]

Alberto, the Seabiscuit of tropical storms, fights on. Laughs at naysayers on forum.

[28_Storms]

Well, still 40kts at 11pm.

Not likely. Only 44 kts at FL. Even in a purely tropical storm, the conversion of .7 X FL = only 30 kts, and this isn't purely tropical. It's a TD but they don't want to downgrade it "just in case".

recon just found 51 kts

[Brent]

If the NHC forecast of 60 mph verifies I will be shocked. I doubt this survives the day tomorrow.

Yeah, I don't know what they're thinking over there. What on earth indicates an increasingly favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf? I can't even imagine what they're looking at.

In the past, when a storm turns into the direction of the wind shear, it has become less of a factor. Maybe thats it.

Expect any watches/warnings for the east coast by morning???? Forecast has it very near Jax as a 50mph Tropical storm still.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 30.1n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

Well if the NHC intensity verifies and it doesn't die in the morning, I'd say a warning for the West Coast tomorrow morning and a watch for the East, But that's a HUGE IF.

[Stratosphere747]

Disco should shed some light, though IMO it will be like the previous two.

[CHRISTY]

[Yankeegirl]

I just looked at the wunderground tracking site, and I see they have changed some of the paths of the computer models, a few into the NO area... Why the change ?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[wxman57]

If the NHC forecast of 60 mph verifies I will be shocked. I doubt this survives the day tomorrow.

Yeah, I don't know what they're thinking over there. What on earth indicates an increasingly favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf? I can't even imagine what they're looking at.

In the past, when a storm turns into the direction of the wind shear, it has become less of a factor. Maybe thats it.

Expect any watches/warnings for the east coast by morning???? Forecast has it very near Jax as a 50mph Tropical storm still.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 30.1n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

I don't think it's turning, I think the LLC is elongating and dissipating. We probably won't be able to identify an LLC with visible satellite or surface obs in the morning.

[cpdaman]

from the water vapor and i am an amateur i have 2 questions. what is that more pronounced clock wise rotation occuring in central carribean. a anti-cylone? and two as a short-wave appears to be dropping south thru the mississippi valley and the anti-cyclonic flow in the carribean might this things just get pushed more east north east in the path of least resistance, and also will the llC go for the ride. if the low llC starts moving more east with the help of the anticylonic flow south

[Swimdude]

Just thought this would provide some interesting discussion...

[Extremeweatherguy]

none of those models show it heading in the direction of the NHC path projection.

[jasons2k]

Wxman57 - I'll be interested as well to see where the LLC is in the morning.

[Swimdude]

none of those models show it heading in the direction of the NHC path projection.

Exactly. That's what I thought particularly strange. Notice, though, that the models WERE run at vastly different times throughout the day today.

[spinfan4eva]

From NHC disco

Once Alberto turns toward the northeast...the vertical shear is
expected to abate somewhat. This may allow for some slight
strengthening in the 24-36h time frame...as suggested by the SHIPS
intensity model... but not as robust as the GFDL model.

OK, Sounds like they think the shear will abate once the storm turns northeast allowing for strengthenning. It looks like they have slowed it down too Now not supposed to pass Jax until Tuesday night. I think it needs to follow this track and speed to avoid more strengthenning than forecasted and remain just a fun tropical storm. I value my AC.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here are is the 00Z model guidance...

[stormtruth]

Alberto is forecast to stregthen not dissipate according to latest discussion from the NHC.

[kenl01]

I don't think it's turning, I think the LLC is elongating and dissipating. We probably won't be able to identify an LLC with visible satellite or surface obs in the morning.

Agreed. I think chances are increasing this system might be nothing more than an open wave by morning. It looks terrible and the shear will certainly not favor organization anytime soon.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Dry air appears to be backing off a bit.