Tropical Storm Chris

[WindRunner]

URNT11 KNHC 020029
97779 00264 40177 6240/ 30500 34022 0806/ /3212
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 22
LAST REPORT

That means no.

And in future, CVW, discussion thread

[wxmann_91]

Keep in mind that steering patterns and shear don't remain static. The map weatherfreak posted is for strong TC's which are vertically stacked and thus steered by the mid-upper level flow. Chris is not that strong yet.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 020029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/00:09:10Z
B. 18 deg 01 min N
061 deg 19 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 108 deg 054 kt
G. 018 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 22 C/ 327 m
J. 25 C/ 321 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 21
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 00:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
RADAR SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

The center has moved to the southwest for the past 2 hours.

[WindRunner]

[MiamiensisWx]

Too bad a supplementary vortex hasn't been issued now.

[SouthFloridawx]

What do you mean the center moved to the sw? Do you mean a sswerly motion is happening?

[WindRunner]

It now appears they are headed back to St. Croix.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Ah. Steve Lyons has confused me.

The track TWC has up, and the track he seemed to favor was directly over and then kinda going along the southern coast of Cuba. I thought the "general consensus" around here was that it would go just north of Cuba.

I know the actual path is up in the air, ATM, but still...

[Weatherfreak000]

Keep in mind that steering patterns and shear don't remain static. The map weatherfreak posted is for strong TC's which are vertically stacked and thus steered by the mid-upper level flow. Chris is not that strong yet.

Of course. It's too far away to have ANY certainity but based upon what i've been seeing i'd think it'll have a fair shot at being a strong system in the GOM.

[MiamiensisWx]

What do you mean the center moved to the sw? Do you mean a sswerly motion is happening?

Viewing loops, I see no evidence of a significant west-southwest center movement now... this is puzzling, to say the least.

[fci]

Here is a historical map...would be rare to even go in the gulf but just crazy to make it to the western gulf, but who knows..

Given the historical map it would be highly unusual for the discussed track through the FL Straits into the GOM to occur.

Once, EVER in the past in this time frame????

[WindRunner]

What do you mean the center moved to the sw? Do you mean a sswerly motion is happening?

Take a look at the map in the main thread. The "Vortex Position - 22:26Z" is where it was two hours ago. SW of that, just a little bit, is the 00:09Z vortex. A wobble, shall we call it?

[Derek Ortt]

it means the center is right under the convection. The 8 p.m. believed that the center was slightly north of the convection

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for the information.

[StormsAhead]

What do you mean the center moved to the sw? Do you mean a sswerly motion is happening?

It's probably just a wobble, but the latest fix (00:15Z) is 8 miles southwest of the previous one (22:45Z). So that's a short-term motion of about 6 mph to the southwest based on Recon fixes.

[cycloneye]

can we please sticky the advisory, makes it easier to just see the offical stuff right at the top

Ivan,we decided to not sticky the advisories nor the recon threads.With the replies continusly in those threads they anyway are up in the page of forum.

[Derek Ortt]

likely moving in small cyclonic loops. This is common for a TC

[Ivanhater]

can we please sticky the advisory, makes it easier to just see the offical stuff right at the top

Ivan,we decided to not sticky the advisories nor the recon threads.With the replies continusly in those threads they anyway are up in the page of forum.

ok, thats cool

[BUD]

This maybe a GOM storm.BUT either way if this storm gets to be cat 3,4,5 everybody will suffer.With gas prices near $3 we probadly be looking at $5-$8 for a gallon of gas.

[cycloneye]

I hope that it does not do more of those mini loops.