Tropical Storm Chris

[Ivanhater]

gfs moved north and gfdl has a slight bend near the end....interesting to watch them as they will change all the time

[ROCK]

This maybe a GOM storm.BUT either way if this storm gets to be cat 3,4,5 everybody will suffer.With gas prices near $3 we probadly be looking at $5-$8 for a gallon of gas.

I agree, any more shut down (or even a hint of shutdown) of production would drive the price out the roof. And that my fellow 2ker would bite since I travel for my company and pay for the gas....ouch!

[superfly]

If it tracks over Hispaniola, it's going to die.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

If it tracks over Hispaniola, it's going to die.

Ala Debby.

[cycloneye]

00:00z BAM Models Graphic.

[Rainband]

If it tracks over Hispaniola, it's going to die.

I hope it does. don't get me wrong. I don't want anyone hurt. It amazes me how many people STILL seem to want a cane after the last few years. Please don't patronize me. I can read between the lines. I hope some of you get your wish and learn a thing or two. The best thing that could happen is the models to be right and dissipate this. I know thats not what many of you want but thats what would be best.

[FlSteel]

I agree, any more shut down (or even a hint of shutdown) of production would drive the price out the roof. And that my fellow 2ker would bite since I travel for my company and pay for the gas....ouch!

I hear that. I have to drive an hour to and from work each day. Shutting down rigs would hurt me

[wxmann_91]

BTW, before anyone thinks this will reach Cat 3 and hit S. Fl, I think we're sorta in a win-win situation here (for FL only). If this strengthens, it's going to remain south and go into Hispaniola. If this weakens or remains steady, it then will near FL, but that will be at the strength right now.

This is evidenced by the drastic change in models which now take it into Hispaniola, whereas before they were taking it northward. Obviously, they have been inputed with data that says Chris is intensifying and becoming more vertically stacked.

Once in the GOM, it's up for grabs. Do keep in mind that not all storms that enter the GOM become a Cat 5. (I know that nobody's saying that but many are certainly sticking to a major.) We really don't know what shear's going to be like in a week.

My .02

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

It's starting to look more and more like it's going to go over Hispaniola.

[Derek Ortt]

problem is, those are minly the worthless models, except for the GFDL

Many of the other models are not as promising, including consensus models

[LightningInTheEye]

How about we don't wish this on anybody, including Hispanioloa?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

How about we don't wish this on anybody, including Hispanioloa?

Who was wishing?

[tgenius]

problem is, those are minly the worthless models, except for the GFDL

Many of the other models are not as promising, including consensus models

Derek, did the new BAMM models take tonight's recon data in? I seem to remember the models last year where it was supposed to go west and instead went north a bit (name of storm escapes me)

[wxmann_91]

How about we don't wish this on anybody, including Hispanioloa?

Nobody's wishing. I was saying good for ONLY FLORIDA. (if that was directed at me, sorry if it isn't)

The trend of the models has indeed been further south, that's why I noted the modeling. Globals tend to underdo ridging as well.

[wxman57]

problem is, those are minly the worthless models, except for the GFDL

Many of the other models are not as promising, including consensus models

Thanks for pointing that out, Derek. The BAM models are not designed for use out of the deep tropics and certainly not in a region subject to frequent ridge/trof movements.

Ok, I'm done looking at Chris tonight. Got a call to come in at 4:30 this morning after getting home from work after midnight. Have to be in at 5am.

[Regit]

How about we don't wish this on anybody, including Hispanioloa?

Point taken. It's easy to forget that a huge number of people would probably die in Hispanola. For them, a depression is a disaster.

[cycloneye]

01/2345 UTC 17.5N 61.5W T3.0/3.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean


Ok,any pro met can explain why the drop in latitud from the 18.3n at the 8 PM advisory to this 17.5n? That is a big wobble.

[Damar91]

At this point, I think looking at any of the models is pointless. Instead we should be focusing in the enviroment surrounding Chris for an idea where it's going to go.

[ROCK]

since when does the A98E almost mirror with the NHC. I bet that is a rare occurence...

[Bailey1777]

Derek,

I respect your opinion as I have followed these events. With how everything is stacking up right now what's your opinion for the short and long term track.