Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 261642
97779 16374 70171 67508 73100 14018 67683 /5761
RMK AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 01

[Brent]

How long until they reach the estimated LLC on this mission anyone?

Defintely by 2pm EDT...

[cycloneye]

Since 16:37 no new set of obs haved been out.

[gotoman38]

snore snore snore . zzzzzzz.. krrrrnk krrrrnk... hello?

WE NEED RECON!

[TheEuropean]

What's going on? Technical problems?

[cinlfla]

snore snore snore . zzzzzzz.. krrrrnk krrrrnk... hello?

WE NEED RECON!

WAKE UP!!!!!


I have to take my son to a birthday party when I get back I want to read the recon reports.

[Thunder44]

What's going on? Technical problems?

Who knows. We probably won't find out until 5pm. If it all.

[SouthFloridawx]

Probably technical problems.

[Evil Jeremy]

we will see in the 2:00 advieory!

[gotoman38]

Probably technical problems.

:quiety rolls over: :says "I'll check back":

[Mac]

Yes, it should not be a problem. I understand that the hurricane trackers take along a cup and a very, very long string so they can keep in touch with the NHC in the event that they experience these types of technical malfunctions.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Think they can get service out there? Anyone know their digits? Definitely need some recon.

[jlauderdal]

What's going on? Technical problems?

technical problems in the united states, no way. we could use some of that good german engineering on those planes.

[carve]

Is ernesto looking a little ragged??...or is it just my eyes??

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gotoman38]

Is ernesto looking a little ragged??...or is it just my eyes??

IMO he was, but seems to be regathering the convection now. Was it shear? That's my guess but who knows...... except for those know as

RECON!!

[WindRunner]

And the reports aren't even being sent to the FTP server either . . . that's definately a plane-to-NHC error there, or maybe a NHC to their server, though I am pretty sure that that really shoudln't be an issue. Either way, no data anywhere.

[cycloneye]

Nothing about news of recon at the 2 PM Advisory.It has been an hour and a half since the last ob was out.

[canegrl04]

I think by 11pm Ernie will become a hurricane

[Thunder44]

Nothing about news of recon at the 2 PM Advisory.It has been an hour and a half since the last ob was out.

It sound like they didn't get any info from the recon either.