Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[WindRunner]

Note about that vortex - the regular "OB XX" after "ERNESTO" is missing, possibly indicating a failure of the computer on board and that this vortex was hand-typed? In any case, it appears to be a computer problem on the plane causing the lack of data transmission.

[Stormavoider]

this is a center reformation and nothing more

this is not going to hit the Florida Peninsula

At least not from the atlantic side.

[Derek Ortt]

its not going to hit the Florida Peninsula period, from any side

To say such is saying things not based upon sound meteorological data

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is a center reformation and nothing more

this is not going to hit the Florida Peninsula

At least not from the atlantic side.

probably not from any side.

[Brent]

this is a center reformation and nothing more

this is not going to hit the Florida Peninsula

At least not from the atlantic side.

probably not from any side.

I don't think so either. I don't see it going east of the Panhandle.

[WindRunner]

For posterity's sake, since it appears these non-traditional VDMs (explained page 22 discussion thread) are all we are going to get on this mission.

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z'

[Damar91]

its not going to hit the Florida Peninsula period, from any side

To say such is saying things not based upon sound meteorological data

Not to discount what you are saying, because I'm sure you are alot smarter than I, but to make a blanket statement like that isn't really responsible. JMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is what I got.

[marcane_1973]

Well if it does take the GFDL plot this storm will be history. POOF bye bye Ernesto. Everyone that lives in the GOM better be hoping it takes the GFDL route. Ernesto will be on top of Cuba for a long time if it takes that route. Ernesto will be shredded apart into nothing but an open wave and the GOM will be spared which they need desperately right now any ways.

[Lindaloo]

Damar, it has been said by the Pro Mets that it is nearly impossible to make that kind of turn to hit the Peninsula. IMO, this is responsible.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

its not going to hit the Florida Peninsula period, from any side

To say such is saying things not based upon sound meteorological data

Not to discount what you are saying, because I'm sure you are alot smarter than I, but to make a blanket statement like that isn't really responsible. JMO.

Particularly when many global models are showing it getting close or hitting the Florida Panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to a picture I just saw in another thread, it looks like the center has not relocated north, but instead east.

[Derek Ortt]

its a very responsible statement, when its almost certian to happen

I will not participate in the hype just for website hits, blog views, or to statisfy people living in certain locations. I'll leave that trash to other outlets. I will only report the facts as they are at the present time

[Damar91]

Ok, Derek, your the expert. Just voicing my opinion. Have a great day!

[Thunder44]

[Bailey1777]

Damar do you have any meteorology background? I didn't think so. These models are so full of errors right now that the irresponsible thing to do would be to believe them. You have pro-mets here telling you what is happening in the now. I suggest you listen.

[Damar91]

Damar do you have any meteorology background? I didn't think so. These models are so full of errors right now that the irresponsible thing to do would be to believe them. You have pro-mets here telling you what is happening in the now. I suggest you listen.

Just out of curiosity, who was talking to you. This is why things are getting out of hand here. I made a simple statement and someone who wasn't even invovled starts flaming me. Awesome!

[ROCK]

This is a great recon discussion thread.....back on topic people.....

[WindRunner]

This is a great recon discussion thread.....back on topic people.....

Now if only we had some recon to discuss . . .