Tropical Storm Chris

[deltadog03]

CDO does look to be setting up nicely.

[max]

The system is looking very impressive tonight...it's getting the "fist" look to it...what many are mistaking for a northerly jog is actually the CDO getting "slung" around a center that appears to be strengthening a lot...once the convection gets slung all the way around, this system could really take off....look back at many of the "big ones" right before they went crazy and you'll see this same phenomenon.

Wow thats scary to know but good to know. Thanks because I didn't know thats why it appeared to job or move north a little. Good post!

[Ivanhater]

The system is looking very impressive tonight...it's getting the "fist" look to it...what many are mistaking for a northerly jog is actually the CDO getting "slung" around a center that appears to be strengthening a lot...once the convection gets slung all the way around, this system could really take off....look back at many of the "big ones" right before they went crazy and you'll see this same phenomenon.

ya, I know what you mean by the fist looks, kind of like a little bean sprout

[Stratosphere747]

The models were run before any "wobble" occurred...

The only trend your seeing is the fact that the models actually had a defined center to initialize..

Guess what? The model track will continue to change....

[Ola]

The FIST LOL!!!! Forgot who named it that in here.

[Grease Monkey]

looks more like a boxing glove to me.

[mvtrucking]

With the ULL to its NW, what effect will it have on Chris as the ULL is taking off to its west? Any? Also, is there a weakness that I am not aware of to Chris's north that is causing it to jog that way? Thanks in advance..

[max]

looks more like a boxing glove to me.

Thats what I thought as well.

I like that name better! The boxing glove! Has a good ring to it!

[Blown Away]

What was the last storm to start NE of the islands and go W to WNW through the straits all the way to Texas! Long W path to not find a weakness!

[PTrackerLA]

JB thinks that once it gets closer to North America it will have access to much moister air and be able to become larger and stronger. The dry air might be what is causing Chris to be a rather small cyclone right now.

Basically just because it's small now means nothing compared to what it could become in the gulf. However, I truly hope this remains a tiny storm to lessen the impacts.

[max]

Can't a small storm be a good thing for the storm itself because it can't weaken as easily as a large storm would ? Small storm has less of a chance of hitting or side slipping a large area of land that could weaken it.

Its sorta a Catch 22.

[LAwxrgal]

Can't a small storm be a good thing for the storm itself because it can't weaken as easily as a large storm would ? Small storm has less of a chance of hitting or side slipping a large area of land that could weaken it.

Its sorta a Catch 22.

Charley was a small storm and look what he did.

[max]

Can't a small storm be a good thing for the storm itself because it can't weaken as easily as a large storm would ? Small storm has less of a chance of hitting or side slipping a large area of land that could weaken it.

Its sorta a Catch 22.

Charley was a small storm and look what he did.

Yep.

Andrew as well! We can never underestimate any storm no matter how small it is.

[PTrackerLA]

Can't a small storm be a good thing for the storm itself because it can't weaken as easily as a large storm would ? Small storm has less of a chance of hitting or side slipping a large area of land that could weaken it.

Its sorta a Catch 22.

Yes JB also mentioned the fact that it's small size has helped it overcome the dry air because the circulation isn't sucking in all the dry air. Interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Can't a small storm be a good thing for the storm itself because it can't weaken as easily as a large storm would ? Small storm has less of a chance of hitting or side slipping a large area of land that could weaken it.

Its sorta a Catch 22.

Charley was a small storm and look what he did.

Exactly. They can be bad if they hit the right areas. However, if they hit un-populated areas, then they can be good (a.k.a. Bret in 1999).

[LSU2001]

What was the last storm to start NE of the islands and go W to WNW through the straits all the way to Texas! Long W path to not find a weakness!

That would be Rita last year started in about the same area and hit the La. Texas line.
Tim

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm = Chris still 60mph, 1003mb.

[Javlin]

With the ULL to its NW, what effect will it have on Chris as the ULL is taking off to its west? Any? Also, is there a weakness that I am not aware of to Chris's north that is causing it to jog that way? Thanks in advance..

I think it works were as a low moves out it is almost instantly replaced with high pressure,thus maybe a ridge forming behind the ULL.Maybe someone else might chime in with a better explanation.