Tropical Storm Chris

[Brent]

Did I understand the 11pm right? They are going to send recon back in tonight?

Yes... it'll be going in every 6 hours until further notice. 6 hours in the storm, a 6 hour lull, and then a new plane.

[johngaltfla]

Gang, I've been on here and lurked for a while. I've seen lots of speculation and lots of guesses. Please remember rule#1 with tropical systems:

NO TWO ARE THE SAME.

Last year, the NHC threw up it's hands and said something to the effect that the storm (Dennis I think) was not follow climatology or words to that effect. I'll have to look it up.

I think we are in a new era, a new type of hurricane season and a new series of storms which are unpredictable, and which violate the norm as far as models, etc. go....

Keep that into consideration please when speculating on what this storm will do until it's 48 hours away.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. THE
SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A
BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN
THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE
OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT
2235Z. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS
STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. FOR ONE... IF CHRIS
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR
CUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH
A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH. IF
CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE
SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS
CHRIS OVER LAND.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.3N 61.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[gatorcane]

Gang, I've been on here and lurked for a while. I've seen lots of speculation and lots of guesses. Please remember rule#1 with tropical systems:

NO TWO ARE THE SAME.

Last year, the NHC threw up it's hands and said something to the effect that the storm (Dennis I think) was not follow climatology or words to that effect. I'll have to look it up.

I think we are in a new era, a new type of hurricane season and a new series of storms which are unpredictable, and which violate the norm as far as models, etc. go....

Keep that into consideration please when speculating on what this storm will do until it's 48 hours away.

some good points but the NHC has gotten increasingly better and forecasting track but as we have even see with Chris they still have difficulties with the intensity....they expected it to only be TS...now they have increased the intensity quite a bit...

[Bailey1777]

Thanks Brent.

[max]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


What is Chris doing what now you think? Is it weakening any? I wish I am just hoping for the people in its path right now.

[LSU2001]

What was the last storm to start NE of the islands and go W to WNW through the straits all the way to Texas! Long W path to not find a weakness!

That would be Rita last year started in about the same area and hit the La. Texas line.
Tim

And was forecasted to hit around the Brownsville area when it entered the gulf....

Rita formed about 600 miles W of Chris, above DR!

And your point is????
I know Rita formed a little further west but still tracked through the straits and across the gulf to the La. Texas Line. I am not saying that this one will do that only that Rita did.
Tim

[Stratosphere747]

EWG...

It is different than the 5pm track..

Guess what? The 5am will be different than the 11pm track....

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


What is Chris doing what now you think? Is it weakening any? I wish I am just hoping for the people in its path right now.

I think it's holding it's own. Maybe a very very slow intensification trend.

[Bailey1777]

Don't want to sound stupid but on the last floater ir is Chris trying to form an eye?

[mempho]

I really don't think Chris has Katrina/Rita potential. likeThe circulation is small and, thus, surge will only be an issue to a confined area. It has a minute chance of becoming a Charley-type storm and is more ly to be around a Cat 2/3 if (and that's a big if) it threads the needle and holds off the dry air.

Like many have said, Chris will make a name for himself, but I don't see how you can conlude Chris will remain small. IMO he has more than enough time to get bigger and stronger. Like many have said, once it get's into the Gulf all bets are off

I really can't conclusively say anything and I apologize if that it was misconstrued that way. I was stating an opinion and I always say anything is possible. Chris has a lot of work to do if it wants to get to the size of Katrina or Rita in a geographical sense and there's a lot of dry air around making me think that it would be unlikely to have a large (geographically) major hurricane at this time. However, things can change. I could much more easily see Chris threading the needle and becoming a potent, compact, yet still catastrophic storm if he happens to hit the eddy in the Gulf and have the benefit of low shear. I would say a Camille-type storm is more likely than a Katrina-type storm. Both are bad and I wouldn't pick either of those scenarios. In fact, I see this storm's compact size as a potentially bad thing because if it hits that area of highest heat content under low shear with its present size...this thing is most likely going to bomb.

[Normandy]

No, the circ is not in the center of that ball

[max]

Don't want to sound stupid but on the last floater ir is Chris trying to form an eye?

I see the exact thing you do but I don't think Chris is trying to form a eye. At least I hope not.

[Vortex]

8/2 NAM doesnt look good for south florida and eventually the Gulf coast. Here's the latest run just out from the NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[TexasStooge]

Hopefully, it can hit Texas in the Future so that the North Texas area (Mainly DFW) can get some rain!

[Blown Away]

What was the last storm to start NE of the islands and go W to WNW through the straits all the way to Texas! Long W path to not find a weakness!

That would be Rita last year started in about the same area and hit the La. Texas line.
Tim

And was forecasted to hit around the Brownsville area when it entered the gulf....

Rita formed about 600 miles W of Chris, above DR!

And your point is????
I know Rita formed a little further west but still tracked through the straits and across the gulf to the La. Texas Line. I am not saying that this one will do that only that Rita did.
Tim

Point being lots of the talk is for Chris to track all the way to Texas! Not that common for a storm to start NE of the islands and track just N of West all the way to Texas w/o hitting a weakness!

[max]

8/2 NAM doesnt look good for south florida and eventually the Gulf coast. Here's the latest run just out from the NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That wouldn't be good because it would be in the perfect position for no weakening.

.

[StormWarning1]

00Z NOGAPS is out

Keeps Chris weak until North of DR, then strengthens on a wnw track over the Fla. Keys.
Chris is centered over the Keys at H108, 4 and half days from now.
Keeps it on a wnw from there thru H132.

[DESTRUCTION5]

8/2 NAM doesnt look good for south florida and eventually the Gulf coast. Here's the latest run just out from the NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Whats it show Vortex? My puter Sux

[LSU2001]

What was the last storm to start NE of the islands and go W to WNW through the straits all the way to Texas! Long W path to not find a weakness!

That would be Rita last year started in about the same area and hit the La. Texas line.
Tim

And was forecasted to hit around the Brownsville area when it entered the gulf....

Rita formed about 600 miles W of Chris, above DR!

And your point is????
I know Rita formed a little further west but still tracked through the straits and across the gulf to the La. Texas Line. I am not saying that this one will do that only that Rita did.
Tim

Point being lots of the talk is for Chris to track all the way to Texas! Not that common for a storm to start NE of the islands and track just N of West all the way to Texas w/o hitting a weakness!

I agree with that, I was only answering the question you originally asked. I think IF this one hits the gulf it will be a pan handle to La. Storm
Tim