Tropical Storm Chris

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think he will be a big hurricane. Its exciting for hurricane people to track in look at the data. But I hope people get out of its way. Thats why I said be smarter then the cane.

[max]

I think he will be a big hurricane. Its exciting for hurricane people to track in look at the data. But I hope people get out of its way. Thats why I said be smarter then the cane.

True.

Sometimes I wish I could fly to the places the storm is going to hit before hand and get all living things out of the way beforehand lol.

Would be nice.

I am getting pretty scared for these people.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sure who said it, but I think someone got their wish for Chris to become some big hurricane.

that was me...I just didnt want it to hit land...

[Hurrilurker]

Is the SST map less important than the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map?

The Gulf is certainly warm enough at the surface, but there is a lot of variation in the TCHP map.

I'm wondering about this as well. My theory is that the stronger the storm, the more important the Heat Potential map would be, since it measures heat deeper in the water, which would be more likely to get churned up with a larger storm. Conversely, with a smaller, weaker storm, the Surface Temperature map may be adequate or indeed even more appropriate. Anyone know?

[jhamps10]

it's just amazing, 24 hours ago it looked like a WEAK TD, and here we are 24 hours later, he looks like he VERY well could be a 70 MPH storm or even 75 hurricane at 5AM

I looked at the sat. and I am starting to get concerned that an eye just may be forming, I don't want to sound crazy or maybe that dot is one of the small islands out there, but it is starting to look like an eye

[Grease Monkey]

From what I heard the Depth of 26C Isotherm and oceanic heat conent maps are most important.

[LeeJet]

Looks like a jellyfish!

[max]

It looks like the islands are out of the woods!!! Thankfully!

[BUD]

I bet the CEO of the oil companys are hoping it comes into the GOM.I know they see $$$ now!!!Even if its a cat 2,3 there are going up.

[Grease Monkey]

Well according to Steve Lyons on TWC 11pm update, it's expected to go north of the islands.

[jhamps10]

could we keep the political talk out of here please.....

[max]

Well according to Steve Lyons on TWC 11pm update, it's expected to go north of the islands.

Thats great news for the islands!

[Aquawind]

GFS 30 hours out..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif

42 hours..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042s.gif

[Stratosphere747]

I bet the CEO of the oil companys are hoping it comes into the GOM.I know they see $$$ now!!!Even if its a cat 2,3 there are going up.

Do you know the price of an offshore platform?

Thought so...

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS 30 hours out..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif

42 hours..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042s.gif

the GFS doesn't even seem to be showing this as any kind of strong system (which it will be). Because of this, I would not buy into this run much.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One more thing needs to hapen before things set up for perfect RIC. A anticyclone right over the system. Right now based on the shear maps there is a outflow channel over the southeastern side being caused by the ULL at 55 west. But I'm seeing osme signs of anticyclonic movement in the higher clouds with the chainsaw. If this forms with the 2 to 5 knot shear over this system then things would be faverable for RIC. I would also watch how much dry air as another factor.

[ALhurricane]

This is definitely not the type of initialization you want if you have hopes of any semblance of 'guidance'...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

[Aquawind]

dead link JB

[GeneratorPower]

This is definitely not the type of initialization you want if you have hopes of any semblance of 'guidance'...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

Good grief! You're right! The dreaded ERROR 404 FILE NOT FOUND.

[ericinmia]

dead link JB

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml