Tropical Storm Chris

[dwsqos2]

481
SXXX50 KNHC 021057
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 37 KNHC
1045. 1916N 06211W 01543 0088 148 045 168 160 045 01672 0000000000
1046 1918N 06211W 01547 0087 153 046 168 158 046 01675 0000000000
1046. 1920N 06211W 01540 0091 149 045 154 154 046 01671 0000000000
1047 1921N 06211W 01541 0093 145 044 150 150 045 01675 0000000000
1047. 1923N 06211W 01543 0095 140 040 146 146 042 01679 0000000000
1048 1925N 06211W 01544 0096 139 040 150 150 042 01681 0000000000
1048. 1927N 06210W 01541 0097 139 044 152 152 044 01679 0000000000
1049 1929N 06210W 01544 0097 140 048 156 156 049 01683 0000000000
1049. 1931N 06210W 01541 0098 142 046 152 152 048 01680 0000000000
1050 1933N 06210W 01543 0098 139 039 140 140 040 01682 0000000100
1050. 1935N 06210W 01543 0100 137 037 136 136 039 01684 0000000000
1051 1937N 06210W 01543 0101 139 039 154 154 040 01685 0000000000
1051. 1938N 06210W 01545 0106 140 042 168 158 042 01692 0000000000
1052 1939N 06212W 01543 0106 137 039 162 162 040 01690 0000000000
1052. 1938N 06213W 01538 0100 138 036 158 158 037 01679 0000000000
1053 1936N 06214W 01545 0100 138 038 150 150 040 01685 0000000000
1053. 1935N 06215W 01542 0098 133 037 160 160 038 01681 0000000000
1054 1934N 06216W 01542 0097 131 042 160 160 044 01680 0000000000
1054. 1933N 06217W 01544 0096 131 039 146 146 041 01681 0000000000
1055 1932N 06219W 01542 0097 134 038 152 152 039 01679 0000000000

[wxwatcher91]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html

Chris is under maybe 10kts of shear right now and the shear is decreasing out ahead of it.

[clfenwi]

(Probably the)Last pass of the northeast quadrant for this mission in progress...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ouch the eastern tutt at 55 west is moving westward...He better get moving. Or he is going to get slamed. For the next 12 hours it will enhance chris but after that if it doe's not get moving then forget it. Also earlier it had less then 5 knots now it has close to 10 to 12 knots. It needs to move west at a steady states.

[clfenwi]

AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 38 KNHC
1055. 1931N 06220W 01544 0096 137 039 158 158 039 01681 0000000000
1056 1930N 06221W 01542 0094 134 038 164 152 039 01677 0000000000
1056. 1928N 06222W 01542 0093 128 038 162 162 039 01675 0000000000
1057 1927N 06224W 01542 0090 127 040 156 156 042 01673 0000000000
1057. 1926N 06225W 01546 0087 126 044 160 160 046 01675 0000000000
1058 1925N 06226W 01538 0085 133 040 142 142 043 01664 0000000000
1058. 1924N 06227W 01545 0085 131 040 138 138 041 01671 0000000000
1059 1923N 06229W 01541 0083 135 042 148 148 044 01665 0000000000
1059. 1921N 06230W 01544 0081 138 045 146 146 046 01666 0000000000
1100 1920N 06231W 01548 0079 136 047 150 150 048 01668 0000000000
1100. 1919N 06232W 01540 0074 135 051 168 152 052 01655 0000000000
1101 1918N 06233W 01539 0070 132 054 178 148 055 01650 0000000000
1101. 1917N 06235W 01541 0067 132 058 186 142 059 01649 0000000000
1102 1916N 06236W 01540 0064 132 061 182 146 062 01645 0000000000
1102. 1915N 06237W 01545 0061 133 058 180 156 061 01647 0000000000
1103 1914N 06238W 01543 0057 131 057 164 164 059 01640 0000000000
1103. 1912N 06239W 01538 0053 132 061 166 156 062 01632 0000000000
1104 1911N 06240W 01544 0050 130 061 136 136 063 01635 0000000000
1104. 1910N 06242W 01542 0045 128 063 142 142 063 01628 0000000000
1105 1909N 06243W 01539 0038 128 062 136 136 062 01619 0000000000

[Aquawind]

Good Morning Everyone! Chris is looking even better than when I went to bed. Unfortunately the global models continue to suck for the most part. Now more north.. highly annoying alrighty..

[clfenwi]

New high peak for the mission (and storm): 67 knots flight level ~ 62 mph surface

1105. 1908N 06244W 01551 0031 132 062 140 140 067 01623 0000000100

[wxwatcher91]

981
SXXX50 KNHC 021117
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 39 KNHC
1105. 1908N 06244W 01551 0031 132 062 140 140 067 01623 0000000100
1106 1907N 06245W 01546 0023 148 054 142 142 060 01610 0000000100
1106. 1906N 06246W 01543 0017 138 043 158 158 046 01601 0000000000
1107 1904N 06248W 01539 0009 131 028 186 172 034 01588 0000000000
1107. 1903N 06249W 01537 0004 126 020 198 166 022 01581 0000000000
1108 1902N 06250W 01543 0002 123 014 202 162 016 01586 0000000000
1108. 1901N 06251W 01548 0001 116 009 200 168 011 01589 0000000000
1109 1859N 06252W 01536 5001 150 011 198 172 014 01575 0000000000
1109. 1858N 06253W 01549 0003 180 008 192 178 010 01593 0000000000
1110 1857N 06254W 01537 0006 260 013 202 172 017 01584 0000000000
1110. 1855N 06255W 01550 0011 261 025 204 164 028 01601 0000000000
1111 1854N 06256W 01534 0012 275 026 212 158 026 01586 0000000000
1111. 1853N 06257W 01545 0017 269 025 214 156 025 01602 0000000000
1112 1852N 06258W 01543 0021 275 024 194 176 025 01605 0000000000
1112. 1851N 06300W 01542 0027 283 026 184 176 030 01610 0000000000
1113 1850N 06301W 01545 0034 283 030 170 170 030 01619 0000000000
1113. 1849N 06302W 01541 0037 276 032 170 166 032 01619 0000000000
1114 1848N 06303W 01544 0040 276 032 158 158 032 01625 0000000000
1114. 1847N 06304W 01542 0043 279 030 160 160 031 01626 0000000000
1115 1846N 06306W 01543 0048 286 029 166 158 029 01632 0000000000

67kts

[Aquawind]

Visually Chris looks well organized. 65kts is the max thus far but those winds should catch up to the pressure drop and will increase soon at this rate..

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 021119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/11:09:20Z
B. 18 deg 58 min N
062 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. 55 kt
E. 45 deg 030 nm
F. 125 deg 067 kt
G. 042 deg 014 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 14 C/ 1536 m
J. 20 C/ 1547 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 36
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 11:05:00 Z

[skysummit]

Chris looks fantastic this morning. The CDO seems to be increasing in size with each new pulse of energy.

[DESTRUCTION5]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

[Eyewall]

67!
is that the highest??

[clfenwi]

Here's the dropsonde ob related to the last vortex.... note the 24 knots of wind at the surface.

UZNT13 KNHC 021120
XXAA 52110 99190 70629 04392 99003 27415 24024 00024 27213 24024
92714 22802 85455 22250 88999 77999
31313 09608 81109
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 37
62626 EYE SPL 1896N06288W 1111 AEV 20604 DLM WND 23523 001953 WL1
50 24024 084 =
XXBB 52118 99190 70629 04392 00003 27415 11923 22802 22885 24250
33850 22250 44841 21435
21212 00003 24024 11970 24021 22959 22526 33953 21024 44841 27008
31313 09608 81109
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 37
62626 EYE SPL 1896N06288W 1111 AEV 20604 DLM WND 23523 001953 WL1
50 24024 084 =

[Windtalker1]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

And this is from Stewart!!!!

[skysummit]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

And this is from Stewart!!!!

Well....overnight, he has been moving a little further to the north than forecasted. I'd say South Floridians really need to pay attention today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it can move fast enough to stay ahead of the eastern tutt as it moves westward...Then this could be a very strong storm. Like I noted last night. Everything was there for it but there was some dry air. Which it has maxed out. Right now shear has increased over the system by 10 knots. As the eastern tutt at 55 west moves westward. If this can stay ahead of it then this will be hurricane chris. But if this moves slowly it will get sheared with 20 knot shear like it was. I think it has about 5 knots of increase before the convection starts being displaced from the center. Right now the tutt to the east is helping form a southeast/east outflow jet. Also the cyclone has finally moisten its envirometn around it...Which is why it is developing some banding over the northwestern side.

Its getting ready to do something...But if it doe's not move then Chris will become sheared Chris on a stick! But if he doe's as the shear maps show that the shear is decreasing ahead of it. Why because the western ULL is moving westward. Everything has to be inline fore Chris to bomb.

This is my thinking.

[clfenwi]

URNT11 KNHC 021131
97779 11274 40183 63600 15400 28017 16158 /2546
42510
RMK AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 38
LAST REPORT.

Th-th-th that's all folks! (until 1 PM this afternoon)

[Aquawind]

Bomb talk.. Your a hurricane savage Matt..

[jlauderdal]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

and we still do