Tropical Storm Alberto

[wxman57]

Here's a nice high-res satellite image with observations plotted around the center (located by Tampa radar, by the way). I welcome your comments. To me, it looks like a poorly-organized TS:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto30.gif

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I had a feeling about the Loop Current. Could you imagine how strong Alberto would be without the shear and dry air?

My predicted intensity at landfall: 65 mph

[Javlin]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

It seems Tampa will probably just get some much needed rain according to the steering currents.If the maps are right then an E movement must be a wobble it is still a storm.A weak system can and will tilt because they are weak and not vertically stacked well like a strong cane.Really if a MET could chime in which of these maps should one use they all the 500mb included in them which I usually like to refer to.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think he is going to make Cane Status...2 many things not going right for it to happen right now..

Yeah too much shear, dry air, and Alberto is about to make landfall soon.

[seaswing]

Not trying to bust your chops, but even cycloneye has told you to breath and calm down..

I see you have been here a very short time. Excuse me but you need to spend a considerable amount of time here and realize that people are concerned for many reasons. This is an uncertain storm and although not a "Katrina" by any means, it can still cause lots of problems for people, including death. If you are in fact an NBC Intern then you might need to 'study' tolerance.

[Ivan14]

Sorry to sound mean, but can you actually give some reasons for your forecasts (e.g., why you think it will weaken/strengthen, why you think it will make landfall in a particular location, what you think will influence track/intensity/etc.) and why you think the synoptics and storm intensity and related things will play out. We need more detailed posts, in my opinion. Quality over quantity and simple thoughts... explain yourselves, please! Thanks!

You didn't sound mean at all. My mother is always telling me quality over quanity. The reason I believe it will strengthen is even though it is getting out of the loop current, water is still warm enough to support a Category one.

[HURAKAN]

I know that everything is against it, but I won't be surprised if tomorrow I wake up and Alberto has blossomed again. So far (intensity & structuraly-wise) the only predictable about Alberto is that it has been unpredictable.

[terstorm1012]

Here's a nice high-res satellite image with observations plotted around the center (located by Tampa radar, by the way). I welcome your comments. To me, it looks like a poorly-organized TS:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto30.gif

I agree to an extent. But it does concern me for later in the season...the fact that this storm which is not the best organized storm got so strong so quick over the Loop Current with a partially exposed LLC is making me worried.

[cpdaman]

can anyone show show me recent evidence of a LLC that is closed near where the circulation center is supposed to be (in cas i'm just not finding it, which i doubt)

[DESTRUCTION5]

I know that everything is against it, but I won't be surprised if tomorrow I wake up and Alberto has blossomed again. So far (intensity & structuraly-wise) the only predictable about Alberto is that it has been unpredictable.

It will be on shore by then?

[HurricaneHunter914]

One reason Alberto rapidly intensified was because convection usually gets more concentrated over night, just like you said HURAKAN. When you add warm water and over night convection increasing, this is what ya get. HURAKAN you're about to appear on SAT soon.

[HURAKAN]

I know that everything is against it, but I won't be surprised if tomorrow I wake up and Alberto has blossomed again. So far (intensity & structuraly-wise) the only predictable about Alberto is that it has been unpredictable.

It will be on shore by then?

[NBCintern]

I see you have been here a very short time. Excuse me but you need to spend a considerable amount of time here and realize that people are concerned for many reasons. This is an uncertain storm and although not a "Katrina" by any means, it can still cause lots of problems for people, including death. If you are in fact an NBC Intern then you might need to 'study' tolerance.

Why do you keep putting salt on what was done. Are you so fixated on what just happened. Regardless, if I have been here a short time or long time. I am an intern and "tolerance" in the journalism field is short. May I suggest some sensitivity classes for the both of us????

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we are likely to see a slight weakening before landfall. You can see outflow boundaries on visible imagery, and the system is showing signs of weakening on both visible and infra-red imagery. Although periodic bursts of convection are likely to occur before landfall, I expect a slow weakening soon beginning to take place as dry air intrusion and increasing shear starts to take it's toll on the system. I think we will see a landfalling tropical storm with sustained winds likely in the range of 50MPH to 65MPH, in my opinion.

You can really see evidence of potential slight weakening starting to soon take place just before landfall by viewing the synoptics and water vapor imagery...

Water vapor imagery

As shear increases before landfall, preshore quick weakening short spurts may be enhanced...

[LAwxrgal]

One reason Alberto rapidly intensified was because convection usually gets more concentrated over night, just like you said HURAKAN. When you add warm water and over night convection increasing, this is what ya get. HURAKAN you're about to appear on SAT soon.

As I posted in another thread, two words jumped out at me while I skimmed the 11 am advisory -- loop current.

The NHC says Alberto spent time in that infamous pool of water that allowed Katrina and Rita to become beasts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I know that everything is against it, but I won't be surprised if tomorrow I wake up and Alberto has blossomed again. So far (intensity & structuraly-wise) the only predictable about Alberto is that it has been unpredictable.

It will be on shore by then?

Jeez your right on that timing but this needs to be adjusted greatly IMO...Looking like 12 hrs away

[NBCintern]

I see you have been here a very short time. Excuse me but you need to spend a considerable amount of time here and realize that people are concerned for many reasons. This is an uncertain storm and although not a "Katrina" by any means, it can still cause lots of problems for people, including death. If you are in fact an NBC Intern then you might need to 'study' tolerance.

Why do you keep putting salt on what was done. Are you so fixated on what just happened. Regardless, if I have been here a short time or long time. I am an intern and "tolerance" in the journalism field is short. May I suggest some sensitivity classes for the both of us????

I have no need to harp on anyone. However, I believe I can post things within the rules. I don't think I have broken any with as many mods coming and going....

[HurricaneHunter914]

Either Alberto is making landfall as a Hurricane and weakening fast or it makes landfall as a TS and is still weakening fast. Which one is it?

[HURAKAN]

Alberto history so far has been, intensifying in the night and then weakening (visibly speaking) during the day.

[shaggy]

IMO it still looks like the LLC is very elongated and becoming exposed again.H certainly has surprised me with that major flare up last night but times running out on him to get any stronger but i am sure the conversations of "he was a cane at landfall arguement" will start quickly after he landfalls!