Tropical Storm Chris

[Nimbus]

The huge ridge is clearly visible on the water vapor loop and Chris is keeping pace with the ULL over the Bahamas as it moves west. Given the more northerly initial motion the NHC track seems reasonable.

Is there a trough feature moving in over Oregon that may be a player next week?

Looks pretty scary for south Florida but maybe we could see some shear as Chris bunches up with a ULL/trough in the gulf next week? Any optomistic outlooks?

[miamicanes177]

raw T#'s at 3.7

[bvigal]

Just a warning about those model plots posted above. It would be best to upload them to ImageShack as the owner of the site doesn't appear to like hotlinking. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/media_guidelines.htm

Good point, PK! Also, don't have to quote a large pic in reply. Hit the quote button, then delete the picture. Takes an extra 15 seconds to do, saves bandwidth.

[tgenius]

raw T#'s at 3.7

For a Hurricane you need Dvorak # of T4.0 correct?

[sponger]

What a difference 12 hours makes! I'd would start early preperations in S FL as a precaution. Still alot of time left, but after the indifference before Wilma, it will be a zoo if this even comes close.

[HURAKAN]

CORRECT!!!

Nevertheless, in this case I think the NHC will prefer to wait the RECON confirmation for Chris to become a hurricane than going straight with the Dvorak information at the moment it marks 4.0.

[fci]

When we talk about whether the track will shift north, let's remember the historical tracks of Tropical Storms in August posted earlier.

Only 1 storm has gone through the Straits and passed into the GOM.
History is not on Chris' side to do so.

[HURAKAN]

Chris is a very compact storm, will it grow as it moves toward the Bahamas?

That will be very important becuase if it stays this way much less people could be affected.

[shortwave]

yes, but if you look at the wv loop you can really see the 'hammer' coming down from the north. Chris should react to that southern push of the high building over. the only concern is that it seems orientated a bit se to nw which may allow for a bit of northerly jog.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

A storm can not recurve unless there is a weakness in the ridge, and in this case...there is not.

[HURAKAN]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

A storm can not recurve unless there is a weakness in the ridge, and in this case...there is not.

The only weakness is the ULL and that one is clearly moving west and being replaced by the ridge.

[caneman]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

A storm can not recurve unless there is a weakness in the ridge, and in this case...there is not.

True but highly unlikely this will make it all the way to Texas this time of year. Alot of things will change in the next seven days that could allow it to escape.

[Scorpion]

I don't think Chris will remain compact for long. It has excellent outflow potential and will be moving into a moister environment. Rita and Katrina started small too.

[deltadog03]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

i invite everyone to go the carribbean VIS and run the loop of 30 frames w/o zooming in. Just take a look, very impressive both with structure and size.

[SouthFloridawx]

Chris is looking pretty good this morning... first I've seen it. I'll say it's gaining that hurricane look. Is the convection completely covering the LLC this morning?



DVORAK is shoing steady intesification...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/CHRISP.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

[NONAME]

What would 3.7T-numbers be.

[Scorpion]

Getting close to 4.0, which would give it hurricane status.

[cheezyWXguy]

probably around 70mph

[WindRunner]

Be watching the little pop of convection on the western side of Chris this morning . . . it looks like a good strengthening area on satellite and radar both, and I count 12 lightning strikes in that area in the last 20 minutes. And since lightning is usually only present in (relatively) quickly strengthening or decaying storms, we might want to watch this particular band throughout the next few hours.

[jlauderdal]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

i stand corrected the question remains the same even if you say georgia?